With the announcement that Alex Marquez is remaining in Gresini colours for 2024, the MotoGP grid got one step closer to completion. It wasn’t the most surprising announcement – most pundits had already assumed the Spaniard would be retained given his impressive results thus far – but it does mark a tipping point in the silly season. With most of the safe seats now confirmed, the remaining movers and shakers are set to be fairly dramatic, and the domino effects from each remaining announcement should push the next one into overdrive.
So where is everyone destined to end up for 2024? Reading between the lines is always a tricky thing, but between all the rumours and theories floating around the paddock there’s some morsels of truth we can use to make some safe guesses. Here, I’m going to try to predict the final grid for next year – it could all end up falling apart if a couple of key riders don’t end up where I predict them to, but that’s the fun and fascinating thing about the MotoGP rider market. You never really know where everyone is going to land until the season wraps in Valencia and testing gets underway. Still, we’re going to take a crack at it today and see what we can figure out!
Teams listed in bold
Confirmed riders
Unconfirmed riders
Let’s start off with the factory teams:
Repsol Honda
Marc Marquez
Joan Mir
Ducati Lenovo
Pecco Bagnaia
Enea Bastianini
Red Bull KTM
Brad Binder
Jack Miller
Aprilia Racing
Maverick Vinales
Aleix Espargaro
Monster Energy Yamaha
Fabio Quartararo
Alex Rins
The 10 factory rides are all locked up for next year, and these are the ten lucky candidates that landed them. Not a huge amount to talk about here, as most of these were two year contracts to begin with, but I will note two key points. Firstly, Alex Rins has successfully bailed out of his LCR Honda contract to upgrade into a factory role in Yamaha for next year. This is a partnership that makes a tonne of sense to me, and I fully expect him to adjust quickly to the Yamaha and deliver similar results to what he was previously capable of on a Suzuki.
The other is the factory Honda duo. In recent months, stipulations have come up over these two and their future within the team, with many fans and reporters suggesting they could both break ties early and head to other teams for 2024. These rumours have all gone quiet of late, so I’m lead to assume that they’ve both simply decided to remain with Honda for the remainder of their contracts and seek greener pastures in 2025. It’s an unfortunate outcome for two former MotoGP champions, but I wouldn’t write either of them off once they find more competitive options in the future.
Now for the satellite teams, and this really is where things get interesting:
Pramac Ducati
Jorge Martin
Marco Bezzechi
Perhaps one of the biggest revelations this year has been Marco Bezzechi. The VR46 Academy graduate is showing wicked speed and form in just his second season in MotoGP, and has already put himself into the conversation as a potential title challenger for this year. It’ll be a difficult battle given his main rival is on a factory machine, but he looks destined for greatness – and Ducati appear to agree, with plenty of links being made to a Pramac switch and a factory-esque contract for Bezz next year.
Two things can potentially cloud this move over. The first is Bezzechi’s loyalty to the VR46 team that has brought him up through the ranks and treated him so well in his first two premier class seasons. The Italian may genuinely believe he has a better shot in a team he’s familiar with than a more competitive bike but an unknown group of engineers and technicians around him. The second is the current occupant of the seat – Johann Zarco, who has done nothing wrong this year but still looks set to depart Pramac and Ducati altogether at the conclusion of this season. My suggested lineup definitely makes the most sense for Ducati, but may yet fall apart should either Bezz or Zarco will it – only time will tell on that front.
VR46 Ducati
Luca Marini
Franco Morbidelli
Neither seat within the aforementioned VR46 team has been confirmed yet, likely due to the headaches currently being caused by their number one rider Bezzechi, but once he makes his decision things should fall into place quickly and neatly for Valentino Rossi’s squad. Namely, Luca Marini should be comfortably retained given his solid consistency this year, and the second seat should open up as a safety net for the free-falling Franco Morbidelli, who has lost his comfortable factory Yamaha ride to Alex Rins.
Should Bezzechi choose to stay with his current employer, the headaches begin. On the one hand, Marini has been a consistent source of results and data for the team. On the other, Morbidelli is a favourite of Vale’s, and the 9-times champion would hate to see his original protégé leave the class without a proper chance to fend for himself. My bet is that Bezzechi flying the coop actually solves a bunch of headaches for this team, making it a fairly safe bet on both rider’s accounts.
Gresini Ducati
Alex Marquez
Tony Arbolino
Thus, we reach the most heavily contested seat on the grid. Alex Marquez may have solidified his position within the Gresini team, but his teammate for 2024 remains very much in the air, and there’s plenty of names in the ring for it. Morbidelli and Zarco have both been thrown into the mix, as has Mir; but the primary candidates for this seat are both currently Moto2 frontrunners, namely Tony Arbolino and Jake Dixon.
Choosing between these two presents a rather unique pickle. Dixon is a very marketable rider given there are currently zero British riders in MotoGP, but Arbolino has been more consistent all season and is a genuine title threat in the intermediate class. If Dixon bags this seat, it would be phenomenal for the outreach this sport has in the UK, but I struggle to imagine a world where Arbolino’s results this year do anything but guarantee him a spot in MotoGP for 2024. Perhaps it’s wishful thinking, but I trust in the powers that be to pick the rider with the stronger resume for a 2024 berth.
GasGas Tech3
Augusto Fernandez
Pedro Acosta
What a headscratcher KTM’s lineup for 2024 has ended up being. We were all pretty confident that Pedro Acosta was destined for a berth somewhere within their squad for next year, and his Moto2 season to date has cemented that, but the decision of who to drop in favour of the Spanish rookie has proven difficult. Pol Espargaro was the expected to stay as he has a two year contract to fulfill, but Augusto Fernandez has had a cracking rookie season and thoroughly deserves to be retained. Add in the fact that Pol hasn’t really had a chance to defend himself thanks to his lengthy injury layoff following the Portugese grand prix, and you’ve got the perfect storm of uncertainty brewing under the surface.
In my mind, the cleanest outcome is to keep Fernandez and shuffle Espargaro into a testing role. This way, you get to keep both young talents and grow them for future seasons, while also having the experienced Espargaro aiding you from a technical and developmental standpoint. The slightly tougher alternative is to retain Espargaro and drop Fernandez down to a KTM-backed Moto2 ride, but this also presents some difficulties, as the Austrian brand will assuredly lose his trust in the process and likely have him snatched by another brand for 2025. Either way, someone is going to lose out in the race to get Acosta into MotoGP.
LCR Honda
Takaaki Nakagami
Johann Zarco
What looked to be a pretty safe team has ended up being blown wide open in recent weeks. Rins jumping ship to Yamaha has allowed his seat at LCR to become a safety net for riders left out in the cold for 2024, and Zarco has jumped in as the top candidate for this role. With previous experience on the bike and with the team, and having spent four years developing rival Ducatis, the Frenchman could be a massive boon to Honda as they attempt to recover lost ground against the European factories dominating the current standings.
As for the Japanese-backed seat alongside him, the tides have turned in favour of Nakagami retaining his current spot on the grid. While most of us expected the seat to go to Moto2 star Ai Ogura, the Honda Team Asia rider appears to be in talks with several other Moto2 teams for next year in an attempt to remove himself from the Honda fold altogether and distance himself from their sinking ship of a MotoGP project. With no real threat from any other Japanese riders, it’s a safe bet that Nakagami will stay put for one more season at least.
RNF Aprilia
Miguel Oliveira
Raul Fernandez
Finally, the satellite Aprilia team looks set to remain unchanged despite the rumours swirling around this squad. Both riders are on two year contracts, and both have done enough to impress their superiors and lock themselves in. That said, I still believe that Raul Fernandez could unexpectedly face the chopping block should another top rider suddenly part ways with their current employers. Time will tell on that front.
One other consideration
There is one other possibility than the scenario I’ve mapped out here, which is if Bezzechi chooses to remain at VR46 for another season. Should this happen, it will likely set off a major chain reaction throughout the grid for the various 2024 prospects: Zarco likely remains in Pramac, Morbidelli steals the Gresini seat, the vacated LCR spot either goes to Augusto Fernandez or a Moto2 rookie. This version of events is a little trickier to see happening, but it warrants mentioning given how much of this silly season is still up in the air.
The best part of all this, of course, is that I could be entirely wrong on all fronts. MotoGP contracts are fickle things, and we’ve already seen some pretty dramatic moves to date, so I wouldn’t count out having a couple more twists and turns before this is said and done. Whatever happens, we’ll have to wait and see – and I thoroughly look forward to the final results.
Solomon Talks Bikes 