Certain tracks inspire certain memories in me as a long time viewer of MotoGP. Jerez, for example, often causes me to think of the various last-lap, last-corner battles we’ve witnessed there, or the dramatic crash Marc Marquez faced in 2020. A mere mention of Mugello will cause me to visualise two bright red Ducatis and a Honda all trying to squeeze into turn one. Philip Island? Iannone headbutting a seagull down Lukey Heights.
When it comes to Le Mans, the French circuit of the MotoGP calendar and our seventh outing for the 2022 season, I think of rain. It’s not necessarily that this track has a greater propensity to wet races than anywhere else – most of the races held here in recent years have been dry, barring the last two – but rather the sheer impact that the rain can have on a race weekend here. Both of the last seasons here saw wet weather across the weekend, and the result was a crash-fest like no other, particularly at turn three. The corner became a graveyard of motorcycles, large and small.
Why does rain have such a core link to this track for me? It may just be a correlation to the country of France, in the same way that people associate cold and rain with the United Kingdom and sunny beaches with Brazil. It could also be that we simply haven’t seen that many dramatic races play out in Le Mans that they stick out particularly in my mind. There’s been some good ones in recent years, such as the showdown between then-teammates Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales in 2017, but oftentimes the wins feel somewhat pre-determined until the rain steps in and adds an unpredictable element to the race.
That’s not to say Le Mans is a track that doesn’t support motorcycle racing. In fact, I would say that much like Jerez, Le Mans is a track that favours the two-wheeled racing format. It’s fast and flowing, with lots of tight cornering sections and changes of altitude without entering into Portimao territory. It’s got straights where the horespower top dogs can thrive, but not so much that they dominant as happens in Qatar and Austria. It’s a track with no clear winners or losers, from a manufacturer’s standpoint at least, which means rider skill and talent are the defining factors in deciding a winner.
The reason the weather plays so prominent a role in my head, I believe, is how much closer the field has previously felt in wet conditions. It’s not uncommon in Le Mans to see a rider stand head and shoulders above their opponents in dry conditions if that rider is performing at a level above the rest, but in the wet that’s a more complicated task to accomplish. More than most circuits, wet conditions require safe riding and manoeuvring to survive race distance, and those that ride on the very limit are punished more severely than at other locations. Simply put, the wet races tend to be more naturally memorable.
And yet, we need only look to last year’s race here to disprove that theory. Jack Miller stormed to his second win in as many races in 2021, despite running off track and being penalised in the process. He was faster than most in the tricky and changing circumstances, but he was also intelligent, not pushing the bike beyond its limits like Marc Marquez did. Fabio Quartararo was a championship contender and unlikely to bin it in a desperate bid for the win, so Jack could comfortably chase down the Frenchman and defeat him one-on-one.
This year, the forecast looks like it could deliver us another wet weather special. We’re in for rain on at least one of the days, likely all three, and Sunday in particular looks set for some potentially problematic storms. While some rain could definitely make it entertaining, too much could see a repeat of Indonesia where the race was temporarily suspended and could have been cancelled had the showers not eased when they did. Here’s hoping we do still get to go racing come Sunday.
So who is favoured to win in these circumstances? As usual, wet conditions tend to conjure up names rather than bikes, with rider input being critical in the more difficult circumstances. Jack Miller and Marc Marquez have both proven themselves to be wet weather masters in the past, and so both will be at the forefront of people’s minds this weekend. The two KTM riders have previously nabbed victories in the rain, and they are both in need of a strong result here. And of course, the home riders will also stand out, with Zarco and Quartararo both nabbing podium finishes in the wet in Mandalika earlier this year.
Having a home race can be something of a blessing and a curse for riders. Fans turning up in droves to support you can be a great boost to ego and morale, but it also applies a huge amount of pressure to deliver strong results. Should you underperform at home, it feels like you’ve let down the audience themselves, more than just your team and yourself as it would normally be. Riders want to perform well at their local race, but they also need to, to retain face in front of their adoring fans.
This can be seen in both Zarco and Quartararo’s previous results here. They’ve both taken podiums in Le Mans in the past, which is good, but they’ve also been plagued with inconsistency. Despite being extremely familiar with the track layout and the requirements on the riders, they have lost to other riders with less experience than them. Neither has a bad record, per se, but neither has dominated regularly or even won a race here.
Quartararo doesn’t necessarily need a fantastic result here – the championship, despite having many names still in contention, is starting to fan out somewhat – but he does need to stay ahead of a few key players. Aleix Espargaro sits second after his third podium of the year last time out, and has to be considered a real factor in this year’s title race, but he has yet to perform memorably in wet conditions and could be at the mercy of the weather this weekend. Similarly, both Suzuki riders remain well-placed despite recent mistakes, but neither has bagged a wet podium in recent memory and will need some help if they’re to get back on par with the leading Frenchman. They will also likely both be distracted with the recent news surrounding Suzuki leaving the championship, something that may hover over them for many weeks to come.
Then there’s Bagnaia. The Italian made a huge step last time out to take his first win of the season, and his bike looks more and more competitive with every week that passes, but he hasn’t got a good track record at this circuit or in the wet. He certainly looks good right now, reminiscent of how good he was at the conclusion of 2021, but his history may stand in his way this time around. And that’s bad news for Pecco – of all the riders listed, he needs a good result right now in order to close the significant gap he faces to the championship lead. If Quartararo beats him again this week and extends his lead, than could be monumentally punishing for the Ducati rider.
So what can we expect this weekend? Wet weather or dry, one standout performance or a multi-rider showdown, France on top or an outsider upset? There simply isn’t any way of knowing for sure, and that’s what makes this year so fantastic for the viewers. We can only guess for now, and hope that we’re in for a treat come Sunday.
Solomon Talks Bikes 
Great article 👍
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