The Summer break is over, and battle is about to commence once more in MotoGP. Having spent the last four weeks resting and recuperating, the best riders in the world are set to gather once again and face off for the remaining twelve rounds of the season. Twelve grand prix supported by twelve sprint races, with a total of 444 points on the table for those willing to fight for them. It’s a tantalising prospect, especially after the lengthy wait period of July.
With Silverstone looming on the horizon and the riders raring to go on the sidelines, it’s time to take a look at how the championship has fared so far, and attempt once again to predict who will reign supreme at the end of the season. There’s plenty to play for in the remainder of the season, and if we have anywhere near the drama we saw in the first half in our future it will be an unbelievable end to the 2024 championship. Let’s dive in!
The King Stamps His Authority
The reigning champion of MotoGP has certainly been working hard to remind everyone of how he earned his #1 plate. Pecco Bagnaia leads the championship after eight rounds, in which he was victorious in four of the grand prix and three of the sprints. Make no mistake of it: the Italian is the favourite to win the championship, even more so than the beginning of the season when his domination was entirely hypothetical.
His recent form has been imperious, but the current King of MotoGP certainly hasn’t been without his mistakes in the early stages of the season. Back-to-back crashes in Argentina and the US left a huge chunk of points on the table and raised the question of whether Pecco was succumbing to the pressures of a reigning champion. He has since managed to answer the doubters and re-assert himself as the top dog in the class, but his foes have also seen him lose and know they can beat him if push comes to shove.
Bagnaia’s goals are clear for the remainder of the season: continue his current streak of form, which has seen him finish first or second in every race since Mugello, and never let his opponents get so much as a sniff of championship contention. If he can manage this, then the title could be his before we finish the Asian flyaways; if he falls back into his former mistakes, then there are more than a few riders ready and willing to exploit his weaknesses. Either way, it would seem that Pecco’s fate rests firmly in his own hands.
The Rival Red Machines
If there’s anyone currently poised to fight back against our current leader, it’s his fellow Ducati cohort. Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzechi currently sit 35 and 36 points behind Pecco respectively, with both men having won sprints and grand prix in their own rights. The satellite riders are hungry, nipping at the heels of their factory overlord and attempting to prove themselves worthy of riding alongside him in the future. Step one to that plan would appear to be beating him with his own weaponry.
Both men have proven that they have the reigning champ figured out in some areas, but consistency has left them both trailing behind at the halfway mark. Martin is clearly wickedly fast over a single lap but occasionally suffers in the longer feature races. Bezzechi has comeback potential but has left points begging in a number of sprints so far. If either of them want to seriously challenge Bagnaia in the remainder of the season, they will need to push themselves to even greater limits than they’ve done previously.
Don’t rule out any of the other Ducati riders, either. Luca Marini and Johann Zarco have impressed with podiums and consistent top five finishes so far this season, and Alex Marquez has had flashes of brilliance when he isn’t getting wiped out by other riders. Enea Bastianini missed a chunk of races due to injury but is a known talent on a factory bike, and the month off will surely bring him back to full fitness and into contention for podiums and wins. One thing is for sure: the best weapon to use against the might of Ducati and Bagnaia is your own Ducati.
The Surprise Package from Austria
Ducati being a menace in this championship was a known coming into the 2023 season. If there’s been a surprise so far, it’s definitely come from KTM. Pre-season testing had them right at the bottom of most people’s tipping sheets, but the Austrians have stormed into this championship with an incredibly consistent package and some seriously talented riders. Brad Binder has stood out with wins and podiums in both race formats, but new teammate Jack Miller hasn’t exactly been slouching either. Both men are looking formidable on their good days.
The problem is their bad days, when a combination of luck or conditions gets in their way. Binder has seen the gravel trap in a couple of key races, while Miller’s late race pace woes have clearly carried over from his time in factory Ducati colours. They haven’t had nearly as much data to rely on as the Ducatis, either: Augusto Fernandez is still adapting as a rookie, and Pol Espargaro has been MIA after a serious injury in Portimao ruled him out for the entire first half of the season.
The good news is that things are set to change for the better in the near future. Pol is returning in Silverstone with an aim to both improve moral in the KTM garage and confirm his spot on the 2024 grid, and news broke over the break that Moto2 golden child Pedro Acosta is set to join the KTM ranks in 2024. There’s never been a better time to be a KTM rider, and the Austrian manufacturer will be looking to exploit their strengths in the second half of this championship to ruffle some feathers in Ducati and assert themselves as the defacto second-best bike in MotoGP.
Struggles and Suffering for the Japanese
Where the Europeans have risen to the challenge in 2023, the Japanese have fallen behind the ball and are at a serious risk of being left behind. Both Honda and Yamaha have had miserable starts to the year disguised by small pockets of form. Fabio Quartararo has been the saving grace of Yamaha by providing them with podiums in both grand prix and a sprint, and Alex Rins has bagged a lone win for Honda in the lone star state of Texas.
In the long term, things will need to seriously shake up in both camps, but the goal for now is assuredly to stay in touch with the other manufacturers and remain somewhat in the fight for the remainder of the season. News that Rins is set for a move to Yamaha for 2024 will have triggered plenty of whispers in both teams, but they will need to re-focus on the task at hand if they want to remain in the conversation for this season at all.
The rider market can’t be entirely ignored in this instance, though. Both Marc Marquez and Joan Mir have voiced their distaste for the current Honda project and have been linked to shock moves elsewhere in the grid for next season. Franco Morbidelli’s future is up in the air at the time of writing thanks to Rins poaching his Yamaha seat for next year, and regardless of the rumours of his destination the Italian will be hoping to right his current ship and recover some form before the season ends. In a wild twist of fate, the rider most content with his current spot is Takaaki Nakagami, who is facing very little pressure from Ai Ogura for the Japanese-only ride in Idemitsu LCR.
Both Japanese manufacturers are set for a turbulent second half as they attempt to right the wrongs of their respective seasons to date. The hope is that they can turn things around and return us to a championship with five competitive bikes on the grid, but only time will tell if they can manage this turnaround before the series comes to a close in Valencia. Until then, expect more worried faces and injured riders in both boxes.
Aprilia, Lost at Sea
Finally, we turn to the lost dogs of 2023. Aprilia were lauded for their impressive pre-season and expected to be Ducati’s immediate challengers for the title. That simply hasn’t materialised, and the Noale factory instead finds itself a distant third and struggling to keep up with the KTMs streaking ahead of them. Sure, they’ve had a couple of decent weekends, but the points on paper don’t tell the full story here.
From a 2022 season where they made a huge step in consistency, allowing Aleix Espargaro to challenge for the title and Maverick Vinales to bag some impressive podiums, this season has poked some major holes in the overall capacity of the Aprilia machine. This isn’t the beast that racked up podiums in almost every European venture last year – instead, they’ve been scrapping together barebones results when they can and struggling for top 8 finishes otherwise. Even the inclusion of a second team and two solid riders in Miguel Oliveira and Raul Fernandez hasn’t saved them.
The good news is that things could certainly change in the remainder of the season. The Aprilia has a lot of promise – that much is clear from testing results – and if a bit more luck can go the way of their riders, particularly Oliveira and Vinales, then there could be big results on the horizon. All they need is a couple of good results to get the ball rolling, and the Italian mob could end up right back in contention for this season.
A Title Up For Grabs
So, who is actually in the conversation for the crown in 2023? The short answer is Bagnaia, assuming he doesn’t get in his own way for the remainder of the season. The longer answer is Ducati at large, given they currently occupy the top three spots in the standings and five of the top six. Life is good if you’re on a Desmosedici, and both Martin and Bezzechi will be looking to upset the balance in the next twelve rounds. Don’t rule out their respective teammates, either; Marini and Zarco both have room to improve in the second half, but could certainly charge back into the title race if given the chance.
If you’re looking for someone not onboard a Ducati, Binder has to be the shout. The South African has looked unbeatable on his good days but is seriously struggling with qualifying form, and needs to solve this issue if he wants to be taken seriously in this title fight. With less positions to recover each race, he could pose a serious headache for Bagnaia and the Bologna Bullets. Teammate Miller shouldn’t be discounted from podium contention, either.
Otherwise, we’re looking at some riders begging for individual glory. Quartararo will want to return to the podium and fight for some wins before the year is done, and both Marquez and Mir have a bone to pick with their bike’s performance stopping them from getting in the mix as well. Both Espargaro brothers will be looking to recoup some lost points in the second half, and Vinales and Oliveira could surprise with some big results on a relatively unknown Aprilia package.
Whatever happens, you can rest assured that there are plenty of battles awaiting us in the second half of this MotoGP season. Buckle in, don’t hit your head on the way in, and enjoy the ride.
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