There is an impending doom on the horizon. Can you feel it? The combined feeling of twenty-one men at the peak of their physical capabilities, all knowing that they are outmatched and out-gunned. The murmuring and whispering of fans and team members alike, engineers muttering to one another behind cupped hands and furtive glances. Everyone knows the storm is about to hit, and no-one quite knows what to do about it.
That storm’s name is Marc Marquez, and the destination is Germany and the Tuscan hills surrounding the Sachsenring circuit. Round seven of the MotoGP championship is upon us, and we are entering the lair of the hydra. Newer viewers are unprepared for what is going to play out over this weekend simply because their is no modern day comparison to be made. For everything MotoGP has done to balance itself out across teams and manufacturers, there is simply nothing that can deny the expected result here.
Let me set the stage for the unaware among us. Marc Marquez has raced at the German circuit eight times since stepping into the MotoGP category back in 2013. He has won all eight of those encounters. He has won here in the dry, in the wet, in changing conditions. He has won against fierce rivals, and he has won when there wasn’t a single person on the grid who could challenge him. Add in the three previous races he won here in the junior categories, and it marks eleven straight victories at the Sachsenring.
A glance at the circuit layout tells you exactly why Marc is so dominant here. The track is counter-clockwise, meaning riders use the left-hand side of their tires far more than the right, and has basically no opportunities to abuse straight-line speed. It’s a winding and weaving but shockingly short layout, with changes of elevation the whole way round, and rewards riders who can carry and maintain corner speed all the way through to the chequered flag. And there has never been a rival to Marc’s ability to brake late and carry an absurd amount of speed through left-handed corners.
It might not seem obvious, but the fact that the circuit goes around counter-clockwise is a big part of its character. The majority of tracks on the modern calendar are dominated by right-hand turns, and the list of tracks that ignore that rule is something of a Marc Marquez all-star set. Sachsenring, COTA, Aragon (forever in our hearts) and Philip Island have all served the Spaniard well throughout his career, most likely because they provide an opportunity for him to flex his abilities in a scenario where other riders are being challenged more than they usually are.
You could argue that Marc will be held back this weekend by the bike he’s on, but I couldn’t disagree more. Honda have been in a downward spiral of results for around five years now, yet that period has included three wins for him at this very location. His most recent win in 2021 came after a lengthy layoff thanks to his 2020 injuries and ended a 500+ day winless streak. He comes into this weekend in very similar conditions, more fit than last time but without a win in a similar timeframe. If anything, a win is more on the cards now than it was two years ago.
Consider this a litmus test for Marc. If he wins here, it’s a sign that he is truly back to full fitness and can contest at certain tracks regardless of the Honda package he’s working with. If he crashes, or worse – finishes off the podium – then it truly is the dark days for Honda as a brand, and they need to consider drastically changing their MotoGP project or scrapping the whole thing and starting fresh. Either way, we’ll get plenty of answers out of the final result.
All of that said, Marc actually doesn’t go into this weekend as the reigning King of the ring. With the 8-times champ sidelined this time last year, Fabio Quartararo stepped in to become the first new winner at this circuit since Marc back in 2013 with a victory that cemented his title challenge. Despite being on a weaker bike than many of his rivals, Quartararo soared through for a dominant win, in part thanks to Pecco Bagnaia crashing out early on in the race. This would also go on to be his final win for the season, as Bagnaia went on to overthrow the Frenchman’s 91-point lead to clinch the title.
Will Quartararo be similarly capable this year? All signs unfortunately point to no. The former strengths of the Yamaha have evaporated with its 2023 upgrades, gaining a more powerful engine but losing many of its typical characteristics as a result. Yes, both Honda and Yamaha are struggling at present, but Quartararo doesn’t have the same history of performing regardless of the bike underneath him that Marc has. He will likely limp home to a small number of points here, but changes need to be made before he can fight for the win.
Who else will be in the fight here? On paper, both the Aprilias and KTMs seem like a good shout. Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Vinales both had great races here in 2022, and the KTM’s cornering abilities displayed in Jerez should help out similarly here. I would argue the Aprilias should have a little more strength come Sunday, but Aleix is still a card-carrying member of the ’23 injury club and Vinales has been wildly inconsistent all season. The KTM duo of Brad Binder and Jack Miller are surely a safer bet, at the very least.
Then there’s the Ducatis. Based on the circuit layout and historical results, one could safely assume that the Bologna bullets are in for a drubbing here, but I’m inclined to say their fortunes should be brighter in 2023. This year’s Ducati model is just so good that you have to assume a baseline competitiveness at every track we visit, including the ones that haven’t been kind to them in the past.
Bagnaia will certainly be looking to deliver yet another strong result following his domination in Mugello, and could easily extend his championship lead here. Martin has impressed me with his current streak of podiums, and Bezzechi desperately needs to bounce back from last weekend. Alex Marquez just needs to see the finish line for once, but if there’s anything resembling a genetic component to his brother’s success at the Sachsenring then he could be in for a return to podium form.
All that said, I still expect both races here to be something of a formality. Marc Marquez is just that good here, and the competition will be a race for second rather than first. The question of who will end up joining him on the podium is a pretty fascinating one, and I do expect it to be an engaging fight. Or, the Ducatis will run rampant again. Time will tell.
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