We’re five races into the 2023 season of MotoGP, and it’s been nothing short of chaotic. Race results have been nigh impossible to predict thanks to unusual track layouts and surprising weather conditions, while the championship standings are a mixed bag all the way down. Sprint races have added a totally new element to the season, as we assumed they would, and pretty much all the calls made after pre-season testing have been thrown out the window after just two months.
If you’ve missed any of the opening grand prix weekends, if you’ve been ignoring sprints and want an update, or if you’re just joining the sport now and need to be caught up to speed, presented here are five key lessons we’ve learned from the opening rounds of the season!
Sprints are not always action-packed
When sprints were introduced last year, the promise was wall-to-wall action every Saturday afternoon. With half the fuel and half the distance, racing would be closer than ever before and riders would be motivated to battle with one another as there was no requirement for management and strategy. Fans could expect it to be a highlight of every race weekend, and it could potentially even take away from the spectacle of the grand prix on Sunday if things went well.
So far, that hasn’t entirely been the case. We’re five sprints into 2023 and have witnessed two absolute spectacles (Portimao and Argentina), one tense back-and-forth (Jerez), and two races in which the leader ran away to a comfortable win (Texas and Le Mans). The expectation that every sprint would deliver on this promise of guts and glory has faded into reality. These aren’t a completely different breed of two-wheeled racing – they have the same issues that full-length races currently face.
This isn’t to say there aren’t differences between the two styles of race you tend to get on a weekend nowadays. Riders will err on the side of more aggressive manoeuvres during sprints since getting to the front quickly is far more important, and competitors who usually struggle with tyre degradation are often more competitive. The point here is merely that we were wrong to assume every sprint would be a masterclass: just like their longer-distance siblings, they have the capacity to be decided early and turn into something of a procession if things play out in a certain way.
Bagnaia isn’t running away with the championship
After pre-season testing, every content creator and reporter in the industry went on the record to say that reigning champion Pecco Bagnaia was the favourite to take the 2023 crown. How could he not? The Italian rolled off of his dominant form at the end of last year into some imperious speed and pace during the tests, looking as though he and Ducati had only gotten stronger in the months off. Riders and media members alike were warning of the possibility that Bagnaia would be long gone as early as the halfway point of the season.
This also hasn’t happened. Instead, Bagnaia finds himself just a single point ahead of second place in the standings after five rounds, and only marginally above the 50% marker for points available in these early skirmishes. The champ has had the fight taken to him in a big way, and instead of a championship dominated by a small number of riders it feels as though anyone could be in with a shout from here. With 555 points still on offer and the top ten split by just 47, it’s game on for pretty much anyone still fully fit at this stage in the season.
If anything, Bagnaia has been seriously bailed out by the sprints this year. Pecco has finished every Saturday in the top six and has two sprint wins to his name already, but he’s also crashed out of three of the five feature races to throw away around 70 potential points. If he really wants to hang onto his title this year, he’s going to need to start finishing grand prix again quickly, else he face the wrath of the young guns currently at his heels in the overall standings.
Every Ducati rider is in with a shout
One of the things people did predict correctly for this season – myself included – was that the eight-strong Ducati line-up would be difficult to beat. That has certainly proven true, with Ducati riders currently making up five of the top six positions in the championship and appearing on every podium since the season began. It seems as though every race delivers more success for the Italian brand as they chase their fourth consecutive manufacturer’s crown.
If anything, the strength of the bike and their cohort of riders is starting to get in the way of Ducati’s overall success. While their riders have been beating their competitors fairly consistently, the exact combination of Bologna bullets appearing on the podium seems to change on a weekly basis, meaning that none of them are frequenting the top steps as much as they would like. For every Pecco masterclass there’s a race where he ends up in the gravel trap; Marco Bezzechi has several race wins but can’t seem to figure sprints out; Alex Marquez keeps showing awesome pace only to be wiped out by another rider’s mistake (two such instances have even come from other Ducatis).
Luckily, this hasn’t drastically impacted the company’s results just yet, with the Italian brand still dominating the manufacturer’s championship, but individual riders from other manufacturers could very easily start stringing together big results to challenge for the individual crown. Ducati clearly has the best package – they simply need to start converting that into more of the domination we were expecting.
The Aprilias have lost their consistency
One of the big stories of last season was the revolution of Aprilia. The Noale factory bagged their first win since joining the premier class thanks to Aleix Espargaro, and put together a very solid championship challenge throughout the season. Most of this was on the back of Aleix’s consistent results, with the Spaniard showing up in the top 4 places pretty much every week in the early stages to keep himself in the conversation for the trophy come November.
That consistency might be gone already, something that is deeply worrying for those within the Aprilia fold. Despite solid results in pre-season testing and genuine speed and pace during practice and qualifying, Aprilia has bagged just one podium from a possible fifteen, and sprints have been a major headache for them on top. Aleix was expected to challenge for the title again this year, but is already talking about the potential for his retirement post-2024. Teammate Maverick Vinales was hoping to be the first rider in the category’s history to win with three different manufacturers, but instead finds himself consistently disappointing compared to his grid position.
It appeared at one point in the opening five rounds that their leading light might have turned out to be Miguel Oliveira from the RNF satellite team, but he’s had an entirely different issue: injuries. The Portugese rider has been wiped out of two separate grand prixs, leading to a lot of rehabilitation and not much actual racing. Should he ever recover to full fitness, he might still have a chance to turn the ship around for Aprilia, but we may be waiting some time to see that recovery completed.
KTM are contenders, and Binder is their hero
Two questions surrounded Austrian manufacturer KTM following MotoGP’s lengthy pre-season: How far are they behind the other bikes, and who will be leading their charge in 2023? Based on times and pace alone, it seemed as though KTM were lagging behind the other constructors by a decent margin, either fourth or fifth in the predicted standings. Plus, the introduction of Aussie stalwart Jack Miller to the factory team led to some question marks over who would be driving the development and results for the RC16.
As it turns out, the bike is far better than any of us could have predicted, and now stands as the main contender to Ducati’s domination of the class. In an era where overtaking is at its most difficult, the KTM riders appear able to grapple and turn their bikes far better and more aggressively than their rivals, meaning they can create real headaches for the riders at the front of the race and even contend for top results themselves. It’s also a bike that can deliver an absolutely lightning start, something that it likely already had up its belt but that we’re only now seeing thanks to improved qualifying results.
As for the lead rider? That particular role has gone to South African rider Brad Binder, who has been shocking many members of the grid with his race pace and consistency. Formerly known as a “Sunday man”, Binder has proven he’s more than capable of delivering silverware on a Saturday as well with two wins from the first five sprints, and currently sits third in the overall standings. Should he continue on this trajectory, it’s pretty easy to picture him fighting for the title by the end of the year thanks to his knowledge of the bike and consistent results so far. Plus, keep an eye on his teammate – Miller has shown bursts of speed and could easily drag himself back into contention in the coming rounds.
All to play for
All of that said, we’re only a quarter of the way through this season. Plenty more could change over the remaining fifteen rounds and thirty races – perhaps things will be completely different in another five round’s time. I guess we’ll simply have to wait and see!
Solomon Talks Bikes 