Ah, Jerez. The Spanish grand prix always feels like a homecoming event for fans and riders alike, and this season is no different. The first round of the European leg comes after three intense and unpredictable circuits – the rollercoaster of Portimao, the underutilised Argentina, the intensely physical Texas – and welcomes the riders to a space that they are all familiar with, and can be expected to perform well at.
All the phrases you hear about European tracks are particularly true of Jerez. Since the majority of junior championships operate out of Europe, the riders know these layouts intimately regardless of what bike they’re riding on. A Moto3 rookie may baulk at their first chance to race at COTA, but will sling a leg over their machine in Jerez and clock a time close to the top riders. Jerez is a place that everyone has ridden at, and more than any other track we visit it feels like a venue built for motorcycle racing.
The track layout is also incredibly balanced, lacking favouritism in any one bike’s design and playing to the strengths and weaknesses of all riders. Sure, there are straights that the Ducati could be favoured, but there are also winding corners that might be more suited to a Yamaha or Honda. In fact, this circuit used to be considered a bogey track for Ducati, but the last three years have turned that conversation around. Ducati won both of the last showdowns here with two different riders, and had a man on the podium back in 2020.
What changed to make Ducati such favourites here when previously they couldn’t buy a podium? There’s an overarching theme to the victors at this track – the best bike and rider combinations tend to come out on top. Looking at past winners here is a decorated list of talent – Marquez, Lorenzo, Rossi, Pedrosa, just to name a few. These results came from a period in which the Yamaha and Honda were the defacto best bikes, and the difference between factory rides and satellite teams was much more significant. With the Ducati now performing better across all areas, it’s able to deliver results at more technical circuits such as this one.
Before we get into who’s going to do well here, a note on the grid for this weekend. Stefan Bradl and Dani Pedrosa are both joining the 22-strong lineup for this weekend to gather data for Honda and KTM respectively, and Iker Lecuona is stepping in as a replacement for Marc Marquez. The Tech3 outcast turned WorldSBK challenger is keen to make a splash in his first ever appearance on a factory MotoGP bike, and as I’ve spoken about previously on this site I think he’s a born racing talent who deserves more opportunities to show his mettle in this class. If Lecuona delivers some real results here, it could be an important step in getting him back into the class full-time.
Then there’s the return of the Beast, Enea Bastianini. The Italian has been absent since the first round when a crash in the Saturday sprint ruled him out for the remainder of the opening flyaways, and he’s been sorely missed from MotoGP ever since. Bastianini was on a lot of people’s radars as a title contender for this season thanks to his new factory ride and race-winning pedigree last season, and it’s clearly not too late for a rider to start piecing together a championship challenge. Don’t expect too many fireworks from him this weekend, but his time will come.
Now, onto the main question – who will lift the winner’s trophy on Sunday? There’s more than a few names that come to mind, and not just from the Ducati camp. Pecco Bagnaia is an obvious call based on his form here in 2022 and his pre-season domination, but he has fumbled 45 points in the last two feature races and desperately needs to just see the chequered flag this time out. His championship tilt isn’t over by a long shot – the man is still second in the standings, and has won three of the opening six races – but this would be a perfect opportunity to hit the reset button.
His Ducati stablemates should always be expected to throw a spanner in the works, and for now the real challenge is trying to decipher which of them will have the best chance at any given weekend. Jorge Martin will be a contender in the sprint, but needs to find some form in the full distance races. Marco Bezzechi still leads the championship and has greater weight on his shoulders than ever before, but his teammate Luca Marini looked far stronger in Austin. Alex Marquez will feel that he left COTA with far less points than he deserved after a great weekend overall, and this would be a brilliant location to get some revenge.
Then there’s Fabio Quartararo. The Frenchman is something of a circuit specialist here, regularly scoring podiums and wins here in every class he’s competed in, and can never really be ruled out of contention at such a technical track. There is a question as to how much the Yamaha is currently holding him back, of course, but this will be our best opportunity yet to read between the tea leaves and really grasp what his chances are this season. If he can bag a big result here, then perhaps there’s still a chance for him. If he lags down the order as he has in previous races this season, then it may be too high a hurdle for Fabio to overcome.
Jack Miller and Aleix Espargaro are also great shouts from their respective factories. Miller is a previous winner here and has been moving from strength to strength onboard his KTM RC16, but I’m wary that he has yet to put it on the box since joining the Austrian team. Aleix should have probably finished on the podium two weeks ago, but dropped the ball on the opening lap thanks to a ride height device failure and was left with no points to show for his efforts. Both men are eyeing off a championship tilt this season after strong form last year, and this would be a great location to base their challenge off of.
Herein lies the issue with Jerez, though – I’ve just named nearly half the grid and am no closer to identifying who will actually win on Sunday. If you consider this track to be one of the most level playing fields this calendar has to offer, it highlights just how close the talents of this year’s grid really are. It feels like most or all of this grid could have podium potential at some point in the season if the conditions are right, and Jerez presents the best conditions one could ask for. Sure, people like Bagnaia will be favoured, but it’s anyone’s guess who will be in the battle for the win come Sunday afternoon.
The weather is also expected to be a factor here, with heatwave temperatures being experienced across Spain of late. It’ll be a long weekend, more gruelling than any Jerez grand prix before it, and it will give us more information on the championship at large than we’ve had all season. Just make sure not to lock your bets in until the riders are through Lorenzo corner – you never know at this place.
Solomon Talks Bikes 