Giddy-up, y’all, because it’s time for the Texas grand prix at the Circuit of the Americas!
Ok, that was terrible, but much like Dorna I’m attempting to attract more attention from the American market at present. There are some circuits on MotoGP’s calendar that are known for being incredible events to visit, including Le Mans’ late night parties and Assen’s roaring grandstands, and there is a clear intent at the moment to turn the US round into a must-see event. Both the riders and the fans are being given more and more incentive to spend time in the area, with the hopes of drumming up ticket sales and marketing the weekend as the biggest event in the country for two-wheeled fanatics.
It’s good that they’re working so hard to promote the weekend at large, because the circuit itself is a curious one. Hard, fast and physical, with a number of corners renowned for being rather bumpy and in need of a resurfacing, COTA is not exactly beloved by the grand prix riders who have to visit every year. It’s a cool track on paper, but that’s mostly just because it’s made up of several famous corners and sectors from other tracks that have been glued together in a Frankenstein-esque manner. There’s a reason I lump it in with Qatar and Argentina as early-calendar events that don’t tend to reflect actual championship standings – compared to classics like Jerez and Mugello, this is MotoGP’s weirdly hyperactive cousin from abroad.
I shouldn’t be too critical, but it’s not like there’s a precedent for great racing here. MotoGP races at COTA are usually decided less by elbow-to-elbow action and more by who can survive the intense conditions best. This is part of the reason why Marc Marquez has been so dominant here, along with the fact that it’s a counter-clockwise course (something that has historically always favoured Marc, for reasons somewhat unknown). In the nine previous editions of the COTA grand prix, Marc has taken seven pole positions and seven wins, a truly dominant run of form.
A run of form that will not continue in 2023. Among swirling rumours and conversations about his long lap penalty from Portimao and recovery from his injuries acquired in the opening round, it has been confirmed that Marc will not contest the American round this weekend and instead focus on being fully fit for the European leg of the championship. This speaks volumes to the severity of both his current situation and his relationship with the sport and his employer. The 2023 championship is already slipping away for Marc, despite him clearly still having the fire and desire to win his ninth title, and Honda will be feeling the pressure to improve their bike if they hope to retain his services in future seasons.
With Marc out, it provides an opportunity for a new King of COTA to be crowned, especially as the reigning ruler is also absent with injuries. Enea Bastianini won an all-star brawl here in 2022 but has been confirmed to be absent for yet another round after his crash at Portimao. The only other winner at this track is Alex Rins, but he’s still struggling to come to terms with his new Honda package, so the door is wide open for someone new to step in and lay claim to the Texan circuit.
Let’s start with the obvious – the Ducatis. The Italian brand has enjoyed a dominant start to the season with three wins from the opening four races, and currently occupies the top four spots in the championship. Their bike is looking stronger than ever, and on paper looks a favourite to dominate the proceedings here. COTA is a stop-and-go circuit, which historically wouldn’t have gelled with the Ducati’s horsepower focus, but their bike has evolved to remove many of its former weaknesses like cornering and braking. Now, they can abuse their top speed advantage on the straights with no fear of losing out in other sectors.
Which of the Ducati riders will be able to use this strength the best? There’s a lot to like about several of them. Bezzechi comes to this circuit leading the championship and on a great run of form, but Austin was a track he struggled with in his rookie season last year. Bagnaia has racked up several impressive finishes here in the past but fumbled hard in Argentina, and will need to bounce back here if he wants to enter the European rounds as the championship favourite. Zarco has shown impressive late race strength recently and is itching for a first win, and could use his experience in the later stages of the race. Even Alex Marquez could be a shout, assuming some level of Marc’s strength here is genetic disposition.
In a way, this is the issue Ducati is facing this year. No longer are they running large swathes of riders just to test parts and fill grid slots: any of their 8 riders could produce a phenomenal performance on any given weekend, and are likely to start getting in one another’s way when it comes to title tilts later in the season. Yes, they occupy the top four spots in the championship at present, but eventually the other manufacturers are going to catch up, and the Ducatis will have to start gambling against one another for sixths and sevenths rather than thirds and fourths. For now, the goal of the riders should be to get themselves well positioned in the championship to give themselves more bargaining power later on.
Who else could stand in their way? Quartararo has enjoyed decent success here in the past, but the Yamaha is still struggling to compete with the other bikes on the grid. Mir is back from his horror weekend in Argentina and looking to prove that other Honda riders can produce results at COTA. The KTMs and Aprilias both suffered here in 2022, but Binder and Miller could both be factors if they qualify well. Vinales has had decent results to kick off this season, but is also an enigma who can’t be relied upon to deliver consistently.
I’m inclined to say that it’s the rider, not the bike, that will produce results this weekend. Don’t forget that there’s a sprint added to the mix on Saturday; at one of the most physically demanding tracks all season, this could play a real role in the outcome of Sunday’s race. The second half of the Texan race is usually a battle of stamina and survival, but riders will have burnt a ton of energy the day before scrapping it out for points in the half-distance race, so some of them may be genuinely fatigued by the end of the feature race. Will this hurt the younger, less experienced riders, or the older riders who may not bounce back as easily?
Regardless, I anticipate America to be seeing red this weekend. Ducati look strong on paper, have had a great start to the season, and were fairly dominant when we visited last year. It’s not a question of who will take the win come Sunday – it’s a question of which of the Bologna bullets wants it more. And that battle should be very interesting indeed.
Solomon Talks Bikes 