Historically, every season of MotoGP in its modern-day history has begun in Qatar. The nation pays top dollar to ensure that the first race of the season occurs in their country, and brings with it the excitement of a night race, with the bikes shining and gleaming under the overhead lights. 2023 will be different: with Qatar still undergoing work to fix up the track, the race has been postponed until far later in the season.
Its replacement opener comes in the form of Portimao, a track that has only been raced on by MotoGP bikes since 2020. The Portugese circuit was added as a last-minute addition to the covid impacted calendar in an attempt to make an actual championship of it, and was successful enough that it has retained its status ever since. In the last three years we’ve raced here four times, and all the full time riders now have a strong sense of what is required to do well at this circuit.
Yet I would hesitate to group it in the same bracket as the more traditional European circuits that populate the middle of the season. There’s two main reasons for this differentiation. For one, Portimao isn’t really part of the collection of tracks that get used by most junior championships. When a rider steps into Moto3 for the first time, they’ve usually already raced at tracks like Jerez and Le Mans plenty of times, so they have a base understanding of how to compete at tracks like these. The gap between the newest riders and the veterans is often not as great, regardless of which class you look at.
The second reason is that Portimao is a very unusual track. The layout undulates wildly, rising up and down throughout the lap, giving it the title of The Rollercoaster. The crests and waves created by the circuit benefit the brave among riders – if you’re someone who is willing to dive up the inside of your opponents no matter what the consequences, then you’re in good shape for battling here.
This makes predicting a result here somewhat difficult. There have been four races here in the last three years, won by three individual riders on three different bikes. Some riders have been more consistent here than others, but it’s unclear what the best bike to be on is. The nature of the track should theoretically play into the hands of the Yamaha, but with only two of them it’ll be a struggle to find advantage. Similarly, the long straight should help the Ducati flex its muscles, but the remainder of the track is winding and unfriendly.
Thankfully, we tested here only two weekends prior, so there is relevant data to peruse. The Ducatis look strong as they did all pre-season, but the Aprilias looked to be close behind on race pace. Fabio Quartararo, victorious twice before here, found a huge chunk of single lap speed on the final day, but looked to be mired in the pack on day one. The Hondas and KTMs are all surrounded by question marks as they look to find improvements on what appear to be sub-par packages before the season kicks off in earnest.
Within this crowd, you can pick out some favourites. Pecco Bagnaia enters the first race as the reigning champion and the king of the pre-season, dominating the final day of the Portimao test and shattering the lap record in the process. He comes here as one of the heavy favourites not only for this weekend, but for the championship at large. Beating him here or anywhere else currently seems like a herculean task.
Pecco knows how to win here, having taken down the Algarve grand prix back in 2021, but he also knows how to battle it out in the middle of the pack. A late penalty in qualifying for the firs Portimao race of 2021 wrecked his chances at a victory, but he responded with a fierce run through the pack that ended in a salvaged podium. Make no mistake, Pecco will be a contender regardless of where he starts Sunday’s race – or Saturday’s, for that matter, with Portimao playing host to MotoGP’s first ever sprint race this weekend.
Among his Ducati stablemates, several stand out as the most likely to be a headache here. Jorge Martin was in the eight fastest riders here for testing despite not attempting a time attack at the end of the day, and looks to have had a fantastic testing season regardless. The young Spaniard is still reeling from being passed over for a promotion to the factory team, a position that he was groomed for since his time in Moto2, and proving himself to be the better call here would be a fantastic revenge plot.
Luca Marini and Alex Marquez also both come here brimming with confidence, and the ’22 Ducati they both wield is a proven winner. In fact, Alex Marquez’s pre-season was so good he had to talk down his chances when talking to the press after they started asking about the possibility of a podium return here in Portimao. Having been held hostage for so many seasons by a bike built for his brother, Alex is finally able to show the world what he’s capable of as a MotoGP rider, and the world is very keen to see it.
Of course, Quartararo can’t be written off here either. The Frenchman is the only rider to have won here multiple times, and his mannerisms are drastically different after the extremely positive final day of testing for him. Despite this year’s Yamaha clearing being inferior to the starting point for Ducati and Aprilia, the Frenchman brings a level of raw talent to the table that cannot be disputed. He wants to recover his title as champion, and winning here would be the perfect start of that comeback story.
Then there’s the Aprilias. Raul Fernandez is starting to come good on this adaptation but is likely a step or two away from competitiveness, and Maverick Vinales is constantly flip-flopping between incredible pace and confusing lack thereof, so the two that I would watch out for instead are Aleix Espargaro and Miguel Oliveira. Aleix had some minor injury concerns hold him back from showcasing his full potential here for testing, but surgery has corrected the issues, and he enters this season with a clear goal of replicating his incredible consistency from the first half of last season. He’s podiumed here before – why not do it again?
And of course, the home hero Oliveira enters his local grand prix with designs on a big result. His difficulties with the KTM in recent years stopped him from showing his fans what he can do, but the ’22 Aprilia he wields is far more of a weapon, and he now has the best opportunity in years of taking a win at home. Let’s not forget, Oliveira won the first ever MotoGP race in Portimao – and it wasn’t close. On a more competitive bike than he’s ever had in this class, he has to be one to watch for this weekend.
Coming into this particular race, there’s also a big question mark around the safety of this circuit. Testing here in the pre-season just two weeks ago, Ducati rider Fabio Di Giannantonio came off in what should have been a fairly standard issue crash, but ended up with concussion symptoms that ruled him out of the final day of the test. The Italian was furious, and you could understand why when you looked at his helmet following the crash: the thing was shredded, with masses of material removed from the gravel.
The fury among riders reignited after comparisons were made to Jorge Martin’s massive off back in 2021 that ruled him out for so many races. As it turns out, the gravel used in Portimao is harsher than the standards kept by its European brethren, with larger stones and sharper edges leading to more severe impacts when the riders go tumbling through at speeds. The circuit has, in its defence, responded quickly by beginning a transition to finer gravel, but the process is slow and they’ve had to prioritise the corners they believe are the most likely to see incidents this weekend.
While it’s unlikely to impact the weekend at large, it’s something that will be on the minds of riders as they head into the first round of the longest season in MotoGP’s history. 42 races are still to come, with the first two happening here this weekend, and any injuries sustained in the first round will trigger a chain reaction for rounds to come. With so many points on offer each week, missing out is not an option, and riders will do everything in their powers to remain fit throughout this season.
So who wins? The brutally fast Ducatis of Bagnaia or Martin, the underdog of Alex Marquez, the returning talents of Quartararo or Oliveira? Winning either race would be the perfect start to any rider’s campaign, but an injury here could throw a major spanner in the works. The strong will win out each weekend, but the savvy will survive the war of 2023. Let’s see how the opening battle plays out.
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