We are back with another annual tradition on this blog: Solomon attempts to predict the results of the 2023 season before the first race has even started! In previous years, this has been a process in which I grade the riders on a scale and then revisit it at the end of the season, but that has proven to be a bit complicated (not to mention highly subjective), so we’re going to try something different this year.
Instead of using a grading system this year, I’m going to do the impossible: I’m going to attempt to place the full 22-rider grid in the order they will finish the championship this year. This is almost assuredly going to have some issues and incorrect ranks – I’ve proven time and time again that my psychic abilities need work – so we’ll be using a scoring system to see how close I get with each rider. Any rider that I get within 4 positions (higher or lower) will be worth 1 point; a rider that I correctly predict within 2 positions will be 2 points; and should I actually get any of them spot-on, I will be rewarded with 3 whole points.
Personally, I’m hoping to get at least 25 or so points come November, and if I fail to do so then I will accept any and all ridicule that comes my way. Conversely, if I can get around 45-50 points then I am basically a MotoGP genie and should be treated as such. Sounds good? Let’s get cracking.
22. Takaaki Nakagami
I’ve been pushing the Idemitsu rider lower and lower in my rankings every year, and this will be no different. Nakagami has exactly one year before Ai Ogura comes swooping in to steal his seat, and I don’t think there’s a single person who expects anything different. There’s probably a test rider role in Taka’s future, but this season is going to be a bust, especially with the bike he’s on.
21. Augusto Fernandez
Not exactly the most exciting seat for a rookie to be stepping into when you remember what a shocker Raul and Remy had in 2022. Augusto is a keen and thoughtful rider, and the reigning Moto2 champ to boot, but KTM (yes, I know it’s a GasGas, bite me) have a myriad of issues with their current bike and a rookie is naturally going to struggle with it. Here’s hoping there’s still room for him in 2024.
20. Franco Morbidelli
I don’t think this is a particularly controversial pick. Franky is a super talented rider, but the man hasn’t graced the podium in nearly two years, and his teammate has been a regular title contender on the exact same bike. I’ll make concessions for his 2021 form, but last year was just appalling from the VR46 graduate, and barring a shock transfer to Rossi’s team for next year the Italian is in some real trouble regarding his future prospects.
19. Pol Espargaro
I know Pol is very excited about his move back to the KTM fold, but I really don’t see it panning out well for him given the state that bike is currently in. He’s had his moment in the sun with the Austrian brand, and promptly killed his results sheet with 2 years from hell on board a Honda that wasn’t made for him. Don’t expect too much from the veteran Spaniard this year.
18. Alex Rins
Ooo, a controversial pick already. It’s not that I don’t rate Alex – on the contrary, I think he’s a hell of a rider and one of the best of his generation – but this year’s Honda looks to be in a serious rut, and I don’t think Rins is going to be the one to master it. He’ll have some good results here and there, but this is no Suzuki, and Spaniard is going to suffer for simply not knowing this bike like he did last year’s.
17. Fabio Di Giannantonio
Diggia enters his second year in the class with a new crew chief and a more powerful bike underneath him, and he showed good form throughout testing, but here’s the thing – there’s seven other Ducati riders in the mix who are all probably going to outperform him on a weekly basis. Add in a smattering of Aprilias and some surprise packages from other manufacturers and you’ve got a guy who will probably battle for a few points here and there but struggle to make an impact as well. Maybe Sprint races will treat him kindly?
16. Jack Miller
It breaks my heart to put my Aussie boy this low, but it had to be done. His first year on board a KTM comes at a time when the Austrian manufacturer looks the most lost it has in years, and Miller really seems to be fighting that machine just to get performance out of it. He’s a great guy and you can never rule him out, but I’m not convinced he’s going to have a lasting impact on this championship. Sorry, Jack.
15. Joan Mir
Oh, how I wish I could rank Mir higher than this. The man is a two time champion, and hasn’t really had an opportunity to defend his MotoGP title since he was crowned back in 2020, but this year is going to be his toughest challenge yet. The ’23 Honda is a tricky beast to master, and while I trust Mir will find a way to fight with it, I’m not convinced it will happen any time soon, so his results will likely suffer from an early drought. It’s a tough hand to be dealt, but hopefully next year’s bike is better for the former King.
14. Maverick Vinales
Finally, some Aprilias get added to the list, and first cab off the rank is… Vinales? Yes, this prediction has the capacity to massively backfire, but so do all predictions that surround the mythical Maverick. He’s just so hard to pin down as a rider; when he’s on form he’s nigh unbeatable, but when he has a slump he’ll struggle to even finish the race. I love the guy, but I don’t see this as being a particularly strong season for the Top Gun himself.
13. Johann Zarco
This might seem low given Zarco’s history since joining the Ducati family, but I think we’re officially in the sunset of his MotoGP career. That first win had so many opportunities to arrive and never got there, and he now faces an increasingly competitive field of Ducati riders swarming for his seat. It’s a tough call, but I’ve got to give this one to the young guns who have shown more potential in recent months.
12. Raul Fernandez
Is this a controversial position? On the one hand, Raul is a known talent, having completely demolished the Moto2 field in his rookie season and nearly taking the title first try. On the other hand, his rookie season was simply appalling, and he clearly didn’t gel with the KTM at all. Thankfully for Raul, the year-old Aprilia he’s on is a known weapon, and if he can replicate some of his pre-season form I wouldn’t be shocked to see him on the podium a few times.
11. Luca Marini
We’re entering the truly difficult part of this list. Marini is a solid talent on the best bike in the grid, and put together a string of top results last year that had everyone wondering when his first podium would arrive. The reason he’s so low on the list? He never got that podium, and while he’s been making clear improvements in the off season it seems as though the other Ducati riders have been doing the same, if not more. I’d be more than happy to be wrong on this one, but Marini just doesn’t quite make the top ten for me.
10. Brad Binder
Brad’s a superb talent being hamstrung by a subpar motorbike. Tale as old as time, right? I was genuinely hopeful that this would be the year he’d get to mount a title challenge, but instead it looks like he’s going to be doing superhuman work just to recreate his Sunday Man form of the last couple of seasons. Still, he’s the best KTM rider by far, and that should translate to some consistency down the line.
9. Aleix Espargaro
I’m more than aware that Aleix had his best ever season last year, but the field has changed since then. The top riders are stronger than ever and riding better bikes, and Aleix and his Aprilia seem like they’re set to come up slightly short in the long run. That’s not to say I don’t expect him to bag some podiums, but any higher would feel wrong.
8. Alex Marquez
I rate Alex incredibly highly in terms of raw talent, and it’s been crushing to see him unable to prove that talent on board a Honda in recent years. All that is set to change, and Alex now finds himself in the seat that proved so successful for Enea Bastianini last year. The Ducati is an incredible bike right now, and Alex appears to have gelled quite quickly, so I expect regular podiums and perhaps a first MotoGP win to come the way of the younger Marquez brother.
7. Marc Marquez
Though he is on an inferior bike compared to his younger sibling, there can be no denying that Marc is still a simply awesome talent in MotoGP. He’s starting this season fully fit, something that hasn’t really happened since 2017, and whatever his fellow Honda riders can do he should be able to comfortably overcome. The bike needs some evolution, sure, but this is Marc Marquez – give him a broomstick and he’d manage a top 5 finish. Confident pick, this one.
6. Marco Bezzechi
Bezzechi did a real number on the paddock last year by taking down the Rookie of the Year title in comfortable fashion, and he’s clearly grown faster in the off-season. This is a guy tipped for great success in the near future, but who perhaps needs to iron one or two kinks out before he starts really fighting for titles. Still, he can clearly take a podium when the setting is right, and the Ducati is an almighty weapon, so this should be another year of moving from strength to strength.
5. Miguel Oliveira
Didn’t see this one coming, did we? Miguel is awesomely talented and driven, and was the only KTM rider to take a win last year. Now he’s on a proven machine in the form of the satellite Aprilia, and while I’m not sold on either of the factory riders I really think Oliveira is in with a chance here. If he can replicate the pockets of form he found in ’21 and ’22 – and really, with this bike there’s no excuse not to – then he could be in for a real barnstormer of a year.
4. Jorge Martin
Podcast listeners will know I had Jorge in my top three only a week ago, and while I’ve shuffled him down a peg since then I still firmly believe he’s set to be a contender this year. The modern king of qualifying, there is no other rider in the current MotoGP grid who can lay claim to his single lap speed and consistency, and with Sprint Races arriving in 2023 it’s safe to assume there will be plenty of good point-scoring opportunities available for the young Spaniard. Don’t be shocked when he fights for the crown this season.
3. Fabio Quartararo
Originally docked from the podium simply for not being on a Ducati, I’ve reconsidered my stance on the flying Frenchman and decided that he’s still a likely top 3 contender. Fabio is pure class and talent, and despite his bike not being the best on the grid you just know he’ll throw his all at this season in an attempt to win back his crown. Sprint Races will hurt him, but I have a feeling Quartararo will find a way to squeeze results out of his Yamaha regardless of the race distance. Viva Quartararo.
2. Enea Bastianini
The new contender in the factory Ducati squad comes out of the pre-season looking fast and dangerous across race distance, something we saw plenty of in 2022. Make no mistake, Enea isn’t here to be rear gunner to his teammate – he wants to win this title, and being in the factory squad is his best chance yet at proving himself. Podiums will have to start coming more regularly, but he has the full force of the best manufacturer on the grid behind him, and I expect the two Bologna bullets to get pretty fierce on track all season.
1. Pecco Bagnaia
The reigning champion is also the heavy favourite for the title, and that’s no accident. Pecco had an unreal pre-season, toping the timesheets in single-lap pace while also presenting fiercely consistent race simulations, and the onus is now on him to deliver that in the season to come. Gone are the doubts and inconsistencies, however, and the Italian appears to be a different man to what he was twelve months ago. He’s confident he can retain the number 1 plate, and I’m equally certain he’ll deliver on that promise.
Lastly, here’s my overarching predictions for the season at large:
Rider’s Champion: Pecco Bagnaia
MotoGP 2nd Position: Enea Bastianini
MotoGP 3rd Position: Fabio Quartararo
Team Champions: Ducati Lenovo
Manufacturer’s Champion: Ducati
Top Independent Rider: Jorge Martin
Rookie of the Year: Augusto Fernandez (crazy, I know)
Moto2 Champion: Pedro Acosta
Moto2 2nd Position: Tony Arbolino
Moto2 3rd Position: Alonso Lopez
Moto3 Champion: Ayumu Sasaki
Moto3 2nd Position: Denis Oncu
Moto3 3rd Position: David Munoz
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