Continuing on from the start of this week, it’s time to finish covering my rider predictions for the 2022 season. For each rider, I gave a score between 0 and 5 that reflected where I thought they would finish in the championship standings, and then justified each of my ratings with a paragraph outlining my expectations for the season ahead. With the season over, it’s time to look back at these scores and see who I nailed and who I got horrifically wrong!
Just like last year, I’ll be reviewing both the individual scores I gave and the written reviews to see who I was on the money with and who I completely blanked on. The ratings rank from 0.0 to 5.0, with higher scores being more likely to finish higher in the standings and score wins/podiums and anything above a 4 being a predicted championship contender. If the score and the prediction are both close to the rider’s actual fate in 2022 then it’s considered a hit, and if I’m too far off the truth with either (or both) then it’s considered a miss.
After the first 12 riders I sit at 6 hits and 6 misses. What will the balance look like at the end of the series? Let’s jump in.
Takaaki Nakagami
Solomon’s rating: 1.9
I often struggle to remember just how long Nakagami has been in this class, but it turns out he graduated up to MotoGP in 2018. That’s a long time to go without any real success, with a single pole position the only real claim to fame the 30 year old has. In the past he’s lacked pressure to succeed since his seat in the LCR squad is usually designated for a Japanese rider, but now that there’s an oncoming wave of Japanese talent in the lower classes Nakagami is going to need to step his results up in 2022 to preserve his time in MotoGP.
Deservingly savage of the eternally middling Nakagami. Hanging onto his seat in LCR primarily due to the preferences of the younger and arguably faster Ai Ogura, Nakagami still managed to disappoint regularly in 2022, and his time in the class seems to be fast running out. It’s always tough to hand out bad reviews like this, but I certainly wasn’t wrong in this instance.
Verdict: Hit
Alex Marquez
Solomon’s rating: 3.0
The younger brother of Marc, though I’m sure he’s tired of hearing that, Alex is a champion in his own right who has never managed to convert that into consistent success in the premier class. He’s got a pair of podiums that he took in his rookie season in 2020, but issues with the Honda over his first two seasons appear to have seriously held him back. With the brand new Honda underneath him, this is the perfect time to prove that Alex has what it takes to remain in this class, and potentially even go toe-to-toe with his older sibling. I expect big things from this Marquez.
I’m immediately reminded that I thought this was going to be the year that Honda bounced back from their previous woes. I still rate Alex Marquez as one of the underdogs of the class, but he was punished once again in 2022 by a manufacturer that didn’t believe in him and a bike that didn’t work for him. I banked on him, it didn’t pay out, and we now look forward to 2023 in the hopes that he can rebound from what ended up being a mostly innocuous season.
Verdict: Miss
Brad Binder
Solomon’s rating: 3.6
As with all of the KTM riders for this season, a lot of what Binder is capable of achieving will come down to just how much trouble they’re in with their current bike. Pre-season testing showed them struggling to match the other manufacturers in pace and consistency, but Brad and his team remain confident that they will put together some strong results in 2022. I’ll admit that he has shown some incredible form in previous seasons, but I really do worry that this year won’t be a good one for the KTM team. Only time will tell.
Reading through this, the rating I gave Brad seems to directly clash with what was going on in my head, and yet it ended up paying out for me for once. A top six finish in the championship despite a lack of wins, it was a good year for the elder Binder brother as he continues to grow as a rider in the top class of racing. Here’s hoping he can deliver even bigger things in 2023.
Verdict: Hit
Miguel Oliveira
Solomon’s rating: 2.4
Miguel is a rider who should in theory be at the top of his game right now. Having battled for world championships at each stage of his career, he finally managed to start putting together wins and podiums last year, but his form completely evaporated and he slunk down the order to finish well outside the top ten in the championship. His teammate may already have a contract for next year, but Miguel does not, and with the sheer amount of talent KTM has waiting in the wings he most assuredly finds himself in the hot seat for this year.
How do you balance out Oliveira’s season in 2022? Sure, he won two races in the wet to assert himself as the annual Rain Master, but that was about all the positives he had to write home about. A smattering of top 8’s throughout the year helped salvage tenth in the standings, but I would hardly call it a breakthrough season for the Portugese rider, and I expect him to be relieved to be switching teams to Aprilia in 2023. I’m writing this rather harsh review down as a win, and praying the fanatical fans of his don’t come after me.
Verdict: Hit
Raul Fernandez
Solomon’s rating: 2.7
The world was blown away last year by Raul’s unbelievable rookie season in Moto2. The young Spaniard took eight wins and a slew of podiums despite his lack of experience, and took the fight to teammate Gardner all the way to the end of the season. Now he finds himself a rookie in the premier class, and Raul will be hoping to continue that upwards trend and fight his way into the upper echelons of the class. Will he win a race this year? I certainly wouldn’t put it past him.
Whoops. Forgot I was supposed to be analysing MotoGP and not Moto2 for a minute there. Ignore me.
Verdict: Miss
Remy Gardner
Solomon’s rating: 2.4
Reigning Moto2 champion Gardner steps into the MotoGP class for the first time alongside his teammate from the previous season, and that means both riders will likely spend all year being compared to one another. Remy also enters this season with some lingering injuries from last year, but that won’t stop him from working methodically to improve himself and battle it out for the top rookie honours in 2022. He’s a rider who has gotten better and better each time he’s been put on a larger bike, so my bet is that he turns into quite the formidable MotoGP rider – we may just have to wait a little while for him to come good.
Rather than talking about the prediction, let’s discuss something more interesting – does my tough review of Remy compared to the glowing one I gave Raul make me un-Australian? I feel the need to defend my stance here and say that I was probably right about him needing time, something that KTM refused to give him when they showed him the door before his first season was done. WSBK will be all the merrier for his arrival. Go Remy!
Verdict: Miss
Joan Mir
Solomon’s rating: 4.2
Mir enters this season steely-faced and ready to fight, after a disappointing 2021 campaign saw him lose his champion’s crown without giving much of a fight. The Suzuki for this year appears to have a lot of promise, and Mir will know that he needs to seize this opportunity and try to wrestle the championship back into his possession. I was impressed with how he fought last year, even when his back was against the wall, and I fully expect him to give his all in 2022.
I wonder if I should be giving myself a pass for any rider who was stripped of the opportunity to show their true potential by forces outside their control. It would certainly help my scoring of both Suzuki riders, plus the bandaged Marc Marquez and the retiring Andrea Dovizioso. Regardless, this was probably a bit too high praise for Mir and shows my bias towards the 2020 champion. I just want him to win a second MotoGP race at some point, and manifesting it at the start of last year clearly didn’t work. Next time, I guess.
Verdict: Miss
Alex Rins
Solomon’s rating: 3.3
Rins is an extremely difficult rider to rate, solely because he has never shown any real consistency in the premier class. He’s a proven race winner, sure, and one of the few guys in the current grid who has soundly beaten Marc Marquez when he was at his prime, but a huge number of DNFs last year has left a bitter taste in my mouth when considering the Suzuki rider. Some of his struggles last year could certainly be pinned onto the bike he was riding, but that won’t be a good enough excuse this season thanks to the radically upgraded Suzuki package. Here’s hoping he can convert that, and prove me wrong in the process.
There were a lot of positives to be taken from Alex Rins’ 2022 campaign. He took a number of podiums at both the start and finish of the season, and fought hard for good results throughout the season, but Suzuki’s announcement of their departure certainly appeared to hit the Spaniard where it hurts. A barren run of 5 races in the middle of the season effectively ended any title aspirations he may have had, and he must be somewhat relieved to be heading to Honda after the headaches Suzuki gave him last year. Still, a solid season all round warrants a decent score, which he got.
Verdict: Hit
Fabio Quartararo
Solomon’s rating: 4.2
Our reigning champion enters this season looking to be in good physical shape and form, but distinctly unhappy with how his pre-season campaign went. The Frenchman begged Yamaha to provide him with more horsepower in 2022 so he could continue fighting against the Ducati army, but they’ve clearly failed to give him what he was after, and that’s going to cause some serious internal issues. Add to that the increasingly large list of candidates who could possibly take the title away from him, and Quartararo is going to have to fight hard to retain his crown.
Quartararo did fight hard to retain that crown, but the deck was stacked against him from the beginning with 8 Ducatis and a hoard of former champions clashing with him at every opportunity. The Frenchman still rates as one of the most talented motorcycle riders alive in my mind, and second place in the championship is nothing to sneeze at, but this rating feels both a tad harsh for a reigning champion and completely fair and valid.
Verdict: Hit
Franco Morbidelli
Solomon’s rating: 2.9
Morbidelli is an incredibly talented rider, we know this to be true – he’s got a Moto2 title under his belt and came second to Mir back in 2020 – but he’s had a pretty tough run of bad luck over the past 12 months. A difficult bike and some serious injuries last year led to him being completely outside of championship contention, and it does appear that he’s not yet fully recovered from those issues. The Italian can breathe a little at least, as he does have a contract for next year in his pocket, but there’s likely some more waiting to do before we witness the fully fit Franco once again.
While it’s still unclear whether it’s the remnants of his injuries or the relationship with his bike that’s holding Franco Morbidelli back, it remains true that he hasn’t been delivering anywhere near his potential in recent history. It seemed like a minor miracle any time we saw him in the top 8 in 2022, a fact that hurts my heart as someone with a great deal of respect for the Italian and his race craft. I almost want to write this one off as a pity win, but I know in reality 2.9 is a smidge too high for the season he had. Apologies, Franky.
Verdict: Miss
Andrea Dovizioso
Solomon’s rating: 2.0
Despite being one of the oldest and most decorated riders in the current grid, particularly from his success between 2017 and 2019, Dovi finds himself a long way down on people’s lists of title candidates for this year. That’s because he’s on an unfamiliar bike, having missed half of last season thanks to losing his contract with Ducati, and has returned to the class to find it far more competitive than when he left it. I’m a big fan of Dovizioso, and genuinely consider him one of the most talented motorcycle riders present on the grid, but his time in the premier class may very soon be up.
I hate to say it, but I think I was bang on with this one. At least I can say with pride that I avoided buying into the pre-season hype surrounding Dovi from within the Yamaha squad, something I managed to fail at in pretty much all other instances so far in this series. And as an added bonus, reading the last sentence of my prediction, it appears I saw his retirement coming from a mile away. Small victories.
Verdict: Hit
Darryn Binder
Solomon’s rating: 1.4
The final rookie for this season, Darryn finds himself with very few expectations of him in 2022, largely because no-one expects him to be competitive in this class. That’s a tough reality, but given that he’s making the step directly to the top class from Moto3 it’s an understandable one to be facing. I wouldn’t be shocked to find him prove the doubters wrong once or twice this year – MotoGP has a funny way of giving you exactly what you least expect – but based on testing and my own gut feeling, I really don’t see him being a factor in the 2022 championship.
Consider it a sign of maturity that I’m ignoring the urge to give myself double points here for actually nailing a prediction for a rookie rider. Darryn did get one or two good races in over the season, but he also finished dead last in the points standings and almost lost to a replacement rider for his now-retired former teammate. Maybe Moto2 will treat him more kindly as a rookie.
Verdict: Hit
Final score: 13 Hits, 11 Misses
Just barely scraping through for a positive record this year, but we take those! I’ve stated before that MotoGP is increasingly becoming an impossible sport to predict, which is brilliant for fans and a massive headache for those of us trying to do exactly that, so getting above 50% with my 2022 predictions feels like a huge relief. I feel like I’ve learned a lot from doing this series two years in a row, and fully expect to forget all those lessons when I inevitably start trying to predict the 2023 season in a month’s time. Stay tuned for that one, and let me know what your thoughts are on these predictions!
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