Let’s take a walk down memory lane.
MotoGP arrived in Valencia for its grand finale in 2017 with two riders still mathematically in contention for the title. Andrea Dovizioso had been chasing Marc Marquez for a number of races, and the two of them had racked up an impressive six wins apiece over the course of the season, but the title looked pretty much set even with the mathematical possibility of a first championship win for Dovi. With 21 points in the balance, the Italian needed to take the win in Valencia and have Marc finish outside the top eleven for him to go down in history as the first Ducati champion since Casey Stoner back in ’07.
Marc could have taken a safe result and simply bagged the title from eighth, but that simply isn’t how the man operates. Instead, he waged a fierce battle at the front alongside Johann Zarco and Dani Pedrosa, almost crashing out at one point but recovering to finish third. Dovi, on the other hand, succumbed to the pressure and crashed out of the race. The title was decided in the gravel trap, and Marc could simply cruise home to his sixth title of eight.
Let’s rewind a little further, this time to 2013. After looking set to wrap up his first MotoGP title in his rookie season in a somewhat easy manner, Marc Marquez managed to get himself disqualified from the Australian grand prix and handed a chunk of points to his key rivals, including Jorge Lorenzo. Lorenzo took two wins on the spin to wrap up the Asian flyaway races just 13 adrift from the championship lead. The math was much more favourable for this Valencian showdown: should Marc finish outside the top four, and Jorge bag his third win in a row, then the pendulum would well and truly swing back to the Yamaha rider and gift him his fifth title.
In this final race, Lorenzo did exactly what he needed to do: got ahead, ground out lap times at the front, and simply hoped it would be enough. To Marc’s credit, he refused to buckle under the pressure applied by the reigning champion, and finished the race in third to take his third world title and first in the premier class. It was a close run race in the end – just four points ended up separating the two riders – but Marc resisted and held onto his title lead.
So, MotoGP reaches Valencia once again with a title hanging in the balance. The question is, are we witnessing a situation akin to 2017, or is it more like 2013? Is this a done deal with fancy ribbons attached to distract the viewers, or is the title really alive and kicking ahead of the twentieth and final race of 2022? Are we about to witness a classic showdown for the title – like Lorenzo vs Marquez, or Lorenzo vs Rossi, or Rossi vs Hayden – or is this all being overhyped just a little bit?
If you can read through the language I’m using then you probably know how I perceive things, but just in case it wasn’t clear, I think this championship is over. Pecco Bagnaia enters this race 23 points up on reigning champion Fabio Quartararo, and with just 25 on the table it would require a miracle for the Frenchman to wrangle the championship back into his hands. Fabio would need to win the race, and have Bagnaia finish fifteenth or lower; any other result would see Bagnaia cling on, no matter how far ahead his rival ended up.
For Quartararo, this is do-or-die territory. A win is the only thing that will suffice, and the Frenchman is without a win since Germany almost five months ago. If he finishes second, he concedes the title on the spot. While the Yamaha rider has shown some spots of impressive form across the season, including a brilliant ride to third last time out in Malaysia, it just seems too far-fetched for him to have a realistic chance at the championship come Sunday.
The issue is, Quartararo isn’t just going to be fighting Bagnaia this weekend. There’s a full armada of Ducatis acting as wingmen for the Italian in Valencia – various members of all 3 satellite Ducati teams have confirmed that there are orders to take the win no matter what and avoid interrupting Bagnaia. Ducati know that as long as any one of their riders takes the win, the title is theirs no matter what, and Bagnaia can afford to cruise around in the mid-pack to avoid trouble while his compatriots in red fight the good fight in his place.
And that’s not even mentioning the fact that Ducati are massively favoured at this circuit. Last time we raced here, the factory locked out the front row of the grid for the first time since they joined the class, and converted that into a clean podium lockout on Sunday afternoon. Despite the best efforts of the factory Suzuki team, there was no stopping the inevitable charge of Bagnaia, Jack Miller and Jorge Martin, and they eventually just disappeared ahead of the chasing pack. The start-finish straight here is long enough that the Bologna Bullets can properly stretch their legs and flex their horsepower advantage over the rest of the grid. That’s a worrying factor for the rest of the grid.
Quartararo’s best allies are going to come in the form of riders from other manufacturers who can potentially get in the way of the Ducatis. As mentioned, the Suzukis have a solid record here, and both Alex Rins and Joan Mir will be looking to finish up their time with the factory on a high note before they depart to new pastures in 2023 (and Suzuki leave the class entirely). Marc Marquez has done a lot of winning here on a Honda, and could certainly be in the fight this weekend. Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Vinales will be hoping to put their flyaway woes behind them and bounce back to the form they had in Europe earlier this season.
I would argue, however, that the two biggest wildcards in play are actually fellow riders for the two title contenders. Enea Bastianini appears to be the one Ducati rider completely disinterested in Bagnaia’s title hopes, and will likely just ride his race regardless of the stakes at play. On the flip side, Franco Morbidelli has finally started to find some good form in the late stages of this season, and represents a potential ally to both riders. Yes, he’s Quartararo’s teammate, but he’s also a VR46 Academy graduate like Bagnaia, so the exact nature of his loyalties are difficult to pinpoint.
Regardless of the race itself, the result of the championship appears almost decided, and could certainly be locked in as early as Saturday afternoon. Should Quartararo miss out on the front two rows of the grid, and should Ducati put more than a couple of riders in front of him, then the mountain needed to climb for a double title would simply be too much for Fabio. There’s no bike on the grid that can currently handle a straight shootout with three to five Ducatis without some serious mayhem (think Phillip Island), least of all the Yamaha that Quartararo finds himself shackled to.
MotoGP will continue to promote this as ‘The Decider’, but this championship is all but decided. That doesn’t mean we won’t have an interesting race, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on a thrilling championship showdown. If I’m wrong, and Quartararo somehow ends up champion on Sunday – I’ll eat my own socks.
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