Coming into the penultimate race of the 2022 season, there were four riders live for the championship and 50 points on the table. That’s a lot of riders to still be in the running this late in the piece, and reflective of what a tight and swingy championship we’ve had so far this year. Nonetheless, the math was fairly simple coming in: if Pecco Bagnaia, having freshly taken the championship lead at Phillip Island a week prior, took eleven points out of Fabio Quartararo and didn’t concede too much ground to either Aleix Espargaro or Enea Bastianini, the title would be his in Sepang.
It’s the first time Pecco has had a match point since he stepped up to the MotoGP class, and the first since he found himself in the same position in the 2018 Sepang Moto2 race. In a way, having the experience of taking a world title at this exact venue in the lower classes could be seen as a boon for the Italian, as he knew exactly how much risk could be required to take glory in Sunday’s race. Still, Quartararo posed a very real problem as the reigning MotoGP champion. The ball was in his court for the first time since his win in Germany many months ago, and the Frenchman represented a wildcard in Pecco’s plans.
While the weather didn’t have an impact on the race itself, the qualifying sessions on Saturday were held under murky conditions, and the pressure was clearly affecting the championship contenders. Bagnaia was forced into Q1 and had to fight his way through to the second session, and the three primary fighters – Bagnaia, Aleix and Quartararo – found themselves starting in ninth, tenth and twelfth respectively. The only man with a shot at the title who gave himself a decent chance on Saturday was Bastianini, though his title chance were incredibly slim to begin with.
When it came to race day, however, both Quartararo and Bagnaia did exactly what they needed to do: they fired their bikes off the line with rocket starts, shooting through the pack in the first two corners to find themselves in third and sixth respectively. Bagnaia quickly got ahead of Bastianini for second and started chasing down runaway leader Jorge Martin, who got a flyer off pole position, while Quartararo made short work of his teammate Morbidelli and got to work on Marc Marquez ahead. Both of them knew the stakes at play, and both were doing everything in their power to keep their title hopes alive.
Aleix Espargaro’s fate was far removed from his rivals. A poor start left him mired down the order, and the Spaniard found himself losing both time and positions at an alarming rate. This effectively doomed his chances from the get-go: since there was little to no chance of him finishing ahead of Bagnaia, he would fail to reduce the gap to below the 25 point mark and find himself knocked out of the title hunt. Worse still was the fact that Bastianini was fighting at the front, meaning Aleix’s hold on third in the championship was quickly falling under pressure.
Two important factors happened shortly after that would heavily impact the nature of the race. The first was that Quartararo got ahead of Marc and quickly gapped the former champion, setting his sights on the Ducatis ahead of him. The second was a high-speed crash for Martin at the front, letting Bagnaia through into P1 with Bastianini P2 and Quartararo P3. This put the championship just out of reach for Pecco, as he needed Fabio to drop off the podium to secure the 11-point gap he required to seal the deal.
Bastianini added some additional issues to the mix as he made a clean pass for the lead shortly after. Ducati management have insisted since Pecco entered the title hunt that there were no team or manufacturer orders other than to not make any stupid moves on the Italian, and Bastianini’s attack for first position was as safe as they come. The issue here was that Quartararo was being hunted down by the fast-charging Ducati of Marco Bezzechi for third, and if Bezzechi made the overtake stick then a victory for Bagnaia would win the championship on the spot. Ducati had to make a decision on whether or not they would inform Bastianini that they needed him to drop the position to Bagnaia and give him the win without a fight.
After a number of tense laps, which included plenty of camera shots of Ducati management in serious talks and Gigi Dall’Igna marching up and down pit lane, both issues ended up resolving themselves. Bezzechi ran out of steam with around six laps to go and dropped away from Quartararo’s rear, allowing the Frenchman to set his sights back on the leading duo, and Bagnaia shot himself back up the inside of his Gresini rival and future teammate to retake the lead without any orders necessary. The title would not be decided in Sepang, as Bagnaia only managed to take nine points out of his main opponent, but it certainly puts him as a firm favourite to close things out next time in Valencia.
It’s important to note that both Bagnaia and Quartararo rode champion’s rides on Sunday. Bagnaia did exactly what he needed to do, securing the win and taking the maximum number of points from his rivals, and Quartararo dug deep to take a podium at a track that should have favoured the myriad of Ducatis around him on the grid. Bagnaia showed exactly why he deserves the title this year, and Quartararo proved he won’t give his crown up without a fight. They were both deservedly happy with their respective results.
Despite the solid showing from Quartararo, this certainly puts the title in “effectively over” territory. Bagnaia holds a 23-point advantage with 25 left on the table, meaning a top 14 finish in Valencia will win him the title. From Quartararo’s perspective, he needs to win the race in two weeks time to even have a chance, as any result from second onwards wouldn’t give him the requisite number of points to reclaim the crown. There is always a chance for things to turn on their heads – Hayden vs Rossi in 2006 springs instantly to mind – but Bagnaia is smart enough to not take any risks and take a conservative result next time out.
Further down the order, it was another solid result for both Alex Rins and Marc Marquez as the Spanish duo finished fifth and seventh respectively. Marc would have been punished by the humidity of the race more than most – remember, he is still recovering from his injuries that ruled him out for so much of the last few years – and Rins is giving Suzuki the farewell from the sport that they deserve at present. His teammate Mir was in the mix in the early stages but sank like a rock in the second half of the races, something that will concern both the 2020 champ and his future employers at Honda.
As for the fight for third in the championship, Aleix Espargaro did manage to hunt down some valuable points in the later stages of the race to keep himself in the running. There is now just a single point splitting him and Bastianini, and given both riders recent form you have to feel like Bastianini will take the trophy come Valencia barring some kind of disaster. Aleix has been arguably more consistent over the course of the season, but holds just one win to his name versus the four for Bastianini, and since the British grand prix the Italian has taken points hand over fist out of the Spaniard. If Bastianini keeps his bike upright in Valencia and stays ahead of Aleix, then much like Bagnaia the third place trophy should fall into his lap.
If there were to be one final note on what we learnt in Sepang, it was confirmation that 2023 could definitely be the Year of the Ducati. The GP21 and GP22 are now clearly the best bikes on the grid, and barring some kind of terrible technical decisions in the Winter break they should enter next season with two of the best packages available. Their qualifying form is nigh unbeatable, and they have a myriad of talented riders amongst their four teams and eight championship entries. With sprint races added to the mix next year, something that should favour the fast-starting Italian bikes, then we could be in for a messy year for the rest of the manufacturers.
Still, Fabio Quartararo did a good job of giving us hope that other bikes – and perhaps more importantly, riders – are likely to still be in the mix, and the rest of the grid won’t give up without a solid fight. That, at least, is something to be hopeful for.
Solomon Talks Bikes 