There was a time not that long ago that rainfall before a MotoGP race would dictate a surprisingly structured result. Given that rain is often referred to as the ultimate balancing factor in racing, it was surprising just how consistently certain riders would rise up and stand out on a wet circuit. Between 2017 and 2018, it felt as though almost every rainy race would see the same group of men taking up podium positions: Marc Marquez on the Honda, plus the Ducatis of Jack Miller, Andrea Dovizioso and Danilo Petrucci.
Much has changed about the sport since then, of course. Two of the four riders listed above have since retired, paving the way for other Ducati riders to enter the fray. Marc Marquez has had a number of lengthy injury layoffs, and the motorcycles underneath the riders are almost unrecognisable compared to their previous iterations. Between aero, ride height devices, updated electronics and new tire compounds, MotoGP has changed quite a bit since 2018.
Buriram marked the second wet weather race of 2022, and despite all the unexpectedness of results this year and the difficulties with certain elements of the sport – namely, overtaking, but I won’t rehash that topic for the umpteenth time here – it was shockingly similar in results to the previous rain-impacted race in Mandalika. A number of Ducati riders drifted towards the front, as per usual this season, but the exact riders involved at the front were fairly similar to those we saw in round two. Specifically, both Jack Miller and Johann Zarco impressed in second and fourth, and the winner was the same rider we saw dominate in Indonesia: Miguel Oliveira onboard his KTM RC16.
It’s a limited pool of data, but it’s hard to argue with the fact that Oliveira has stood out as the master of tricky conditions this year. Despite a poor qualifying position – something that is becoming a trademark of the KTMs this season – the Portugese man scythed through the pack in the early stages, easily lapping faster than everyone else on the circuit, and once he hit the front it was simply an exercise in managing tires and gaps as he cruised relatively unchallenged to his second win of the season and fifth since stepping up to the MotoGP class.
What exactly is it about wet conditions that allows Oliveira to stand out? It could be something to do with his riding style or particular preferences, but I actually believe the key to be the motorbike he’s riding. The KTM has taken a number of shocking results in tricky conditions in the last two years, including both wins in the wet this year and Brad Binder’s infamous win in Austria last season, and the key similarity between these results seems to be the difficulties faced by riders with low grip. Where other bikes are forced to tiptoe around certain areas of the track, the KTM is able to push slightly harder and gain extra ground on its foes.
This is entirely hypothetical, of course, but the stats do seem to back it up somewhat. Brad Binder finished eighth in the wet in Mandalika earlier this season despite having his rear ride height device jammed, and Raul Fernandez had one of his best races this season in Buriram despite being taken down a peg by food poisoning in the early stages of the weekend. I also don’t mean to take anything away from Oliveira’s success here, either; the Portugese rider was truly phenomenal on Sunday afternoon and fully deserves the result he bagged.
Compared to the familiar faces up the front, the real surprise package of the day was Pecco Bagnaia in third. The Italian has never looked strong in wet conditions before, going so far as identifying it as a core weakness of his in past interviews, but he looked cool and calm on his way to the podium finish this weekend. Watching the race go on, I kept expecting him to encounter some kind of issue that would drop him into the jaws of the chasing riders behind him, but it never happened. The Ducati man took 16 well deserved and valuable points.
I say valuable because his key rival had an absolutely appalling race. Fabio Quartararo was involved in some early contact that saw him shuffled down the order outside the points, and the Frenchman simply never recovered from the impact. Instead of chasing down the riders ahead of him, Quartararo went backwards, and finished 34 seconds off the lead and well outside the points. The second half of the season has seen the Yamaha rider bleeding out his championship lead to Bagnaia, and Buriram provided another 16 point hit to his running total.
The championship lead now stands at a measly two points, with Bagnaia shaving off a whopping 89 points since his fateful crash in Germany back in round 10 of the season. From a point in time where it looked like Quartararo was a guarantee to win this year’s title, it now seems inevitable that he will surrender his lead in the next three races. For a while it seemed that the Frenchman’s ability to maximise every strength of the Yamaha underneath him would keep him at the top, but Quartararo has been soundly beaten by the Ducatis around him for the better part of three months now and it’s difficult to see that changing.
However, the recent results have also changed the dynamic of the championship somewhat. From a fairly clear 3-man showdown for the title, there are now five riders split by just 40 points in the standings, with both Jack Miller and Enea Bastianini dragging themselves back into the picture with strong showings in recent history. This championship has a very similar feeling to that of the 2020 season, where a lack of consistency from many riders meant that every week brought a different face into the picture for the title. It’s likely we won’t know for sure who is in the hunt until the conclusion of the Malaysian grand prix in a few week’s time.
A simple perusal of the overall standings tells the bigger picture story here. Quartararo’s leading score of 219 after seventeen races is shockingly low compared to previous seasons, and the number of riders with over 100 points is equally surprising. When we talk about this season being closer than previous ones, it’s very literally closer – seeing this many riders with high points totals is reflective of how many competitive riders and bikes make up the grid in 2022.
Only a few months ago I would have said that the title could have been wrapped up in Australia, but the flyaways have done a fantastic job of shaking things up, and now it seems impossible the championship will end any time soon. On one hand, that is annoying for those of us attempting to make a living predicting the results of MotoGP. On the other hand, it means we likely have a number of fun race ahead of us in the remainder of the season.
Solomon Talks Bikes 