Riders often describe their local races as something of a homecoming. Racing fans know how to welcome their home heroes back, with massive fan meet-and-greets, social events, and rancorous support from the grandstands during practice sessions and races. It’s an opportunity for the riders to feel like rock stars, being welcomed with open arms by an entire community of MotoGP enthusiasts.
Covid has stripped that element away from some riders, particularly those whose home races usually fall in the end-of-season flyaway rounds. There is a strong presence of Asian and Australian riders across all three classes – arguably it could be higher in the premier class, but we take what we can get – who have lacked that sensation of returning to their roots. There’s also plenty of rabid fans across all of these countries that have been missing the opportunity to support their heroes and enjoy the spectacle of MotoGP live and in-person.
So it is with great joy that I finally get to say: it’s time to go racing in Japan once again. For the first time since 2019, riders and teams will be tackling the Twin Ring Motegi, an infamous circuit that is home to both a slew of Japanese riders and half the current manufacturers in the MotoGP grid.
I’ve mentioned in the past how important the Italian round is to Ducati as their ‘home’ round, and Motegi is no different for the likes of Yamaha, Honda and Suzuki. This is the round in which the heads of the racing departments get to come down and see how the projects are coming along, and hopefully celebrate some success along the way. You can see in the results here that these local manufacturers tend to run well in Motegi in a similar way to Ducati’s success in Mugello: the riders understand that if there was ever a race to step up one’s form, it’s this one.
The track itself is pretty interesting. Motegi has a number of long straights that can benefit the higher horsepower bikes on the grid, but also has some of the most intense braking sections in the entire calendar. Riders need to be able to trust their bikes to catch them as they come down from high speeds into corkscrew corners, racing with their instincts as much as their talent and the machine underneath them. It will be physically demanding all weekend, made even more punishing by the fact that we just finished in Aragon five days ago.
The fact that Motegi is so physical is going to be a bane for two groups of riders. The first is the last three batches of rookies: those who joined the MotoGP grid in 2020, 2021 and 2022 will all have zero experience at this circuit on a bike this size. This is true of all four of the coming races, but the impact it will have varies from circuit to circuit. Fabio Quartararo proved back in 2019 that a rookie can still be fast at the likes of Sepang and Burriram, but Motegi can be a difficult beast to tame for those unprepared for it.
So who’s being impacted? A whopping ten riders in total: Bezzechi, DiGiannantonio, Gardner, Fernandez, Marini, Martin, Bastianini, Alex Marquez and the two Binder brothers are all experiencing this track on a MotoGP machine for the first time. That’s nearly half the grid, and it’s sure to be a confidence booster for the more experienced riders on track this weekend. It won’t take forever for these men to get up to speed, but the early advantage will surely lie with the riders who have ridden Motegi on a MotoGP bike before.
The second group of riders who will be under the weather here are those who bagged an injury last weekend in Aragon, and it’s another hefty list. Quartararo and Nakagami are both in some discomfort following their respective crashes on the opening lap, Alex Marquez and Brad Binder were both on painkillers five days ago, and Marc Marquez still has the looming shadow of his weakened right arm thanks to a hundred days of recovery following his most recent operation. We’re in the midst of a triple header, and anyone who is impacted by injury is going to be feeling it more than usual.
The weather itself could also play a role. A typhoon hit Japan earlier this week, causing a decent amount of damage with the rain and wind that ensued, and the weather this weekend could be extremely changeable. The forecast predicts at least some rain over the course of the race weekend, which is going to further punish riders with less familiarity and likely add a few more names to the list of walking wounded. There’s even the possibility the race on Sunday could be cancelled if the weather doesn’t play along.
With all these factors in mind, who is likely to succeed? On paper, one would have to say that the Aprilias and Ducatis have been too strong in recent history to relinquish their strangehold on the podium positions, but history tells us the Japanese manufacturers have a habit of running hot here. Whether the likes of the Yamahas and Suzukis will be able to make up enough ground in the tricky cornering sections to counteract their losses on the straights is going to be a key part of the dynamic this weekend.
That said, Pecco Bagnaia is surely the man to beat. Despite his run of consecutive wins coming to an end last Sunday, there can be no doubting he is the form man of the second half of this championship. 120 points out of a possible 125 from the last five races is nothing to sneeze at, and the Italian will be looking to leave Motegi as the championship leader if possible. He’s closer to the top of the standings than he has ever been, and now is the time to strike and wrestle the crown away from Quartararo.
Within his own garage, Miller will likely also be a contender should the weather go south, as will the likes of Brad Binder and Johann Zarco. Rain is famously the great equaliser in this sport, and these men have consistently performed above and beyond their rivals in trickier conditions these last few seasons. Marc Marquez is, of course, the rain king, but it remains to see how much of an impact his injuries will have on his performance this weekend.
The Aprilia duo of Vinales and Aleix Espargaro shouldn’t be discounted, either. Aleix made his return to the podium last time out and looked incredibly strong while at it, beating out the fast-starting Brad Binder and the in-form Miller. Vinales looked to have great pace as well but was punished for his poor qualifying, ending up in the mess of riders taking avoiding actions following the lap 1 crash-fest. If he had started further up the grid, and had there not been so much anarchy in the early corners, he could have easily produced another top result.
Then there’s Quartararo. Still stinging from his highside in Aragon, the Frenchman has simply lost too much ground over the last five races to Bagnaia and is in dire need of a turnaround in form. The flyaways present a great opportunity for exactly that, given that he bagged several podiums across these races in 2019 and has since gained a lot more experience in the class. Quartararo will know full well that this is the final opportunity for him to rally against the Ducati onslaught. If he can’t beat them here, then Bagnaia is going to take his championship lead in short order.
Plenty of stakes at play for this weekend, then. Let’s hope the weather plays along.
Solomon Talks Bikes 