Francesco Bagnaia is going to win this weekend’s Aragon grand prix. He’s on a brilliant run of form, he won here last year, and the bike he’s on is clearly one of the best on the grid. Thanks for reading, and see you all next week for the review!
…
Alright, there is a little more to talk about heading into this weekend. The Aragon circuit is a fantastic layout that promotes really close racing, which is why we’ve seen some absolutely standout showdowns here in the past. Last year we witnessed a straight shootout between Bagnaia and Marc Marquez, and as recently as 2018 we had a spectacular showdown between Marc, Andrea Dovizioso and Andrea Iannone.
I’ve talked previously about the perceived state of racing in MotoGP, and in particular the lack of overtaking. The last time we had a pass for the lead on the final lap of a race was this time last year between Pecco and Marc, and it’s been a processional 12 months and 19 races since then. If there ever was a time to break a bad streak, it would be right now.
Asides from the technical limitations making it difficult for overtakes, the more recent problem has been the sheer dominance of Bagnaia and championship leader Fabio Quartararo. The two of them have put on some truly dominant displays in the last seven races, with one or the other winning races that haven’t always felt particularly close. Bagnaia has had a couple of close calls lately, but has managed to fend off any opposition and deny them the opportunity to even try for an overtake.
This defensive style of riding will do him well in the long run, but it cannot last forever, and Aragon could serve as a rather rude awakening. With plenty of sweeping corners and a counter-clockwise layout, the natural state of things has every possibility of being shaken up this weekend. Should Bagnaia fail to break away at the start of the race, any riders behind him carrying enough momentum could try for overtakes and make his life more difficult.
Who would be up to such a task? My money is on the two factory Aprilia riders. Aleix Espargaro has a fantastic record at this circuit, having taken impressive top 6 finishes on far worse motorbikes than the current Aprilia in previous editions of this race. This year’s bike is impressively consistent and looks able to perform at most tracks we’ve visited in 2022, so there’s no real reason he shouldn’t be able to storm back to the podium on Sunday. A second win could similarly be on the cards, if he can beat the runaway Italian.
His teammate could also be on for a big result. Vinales is on an incredible run of form right now, the Aprilia seeming to gel nicely with his riding style and the team around him promoting a positive mindset that has been absent in recent years. The Spaniard has already taken two podiums from the last three races, and at Misano he showed us that he can run top pace for an entire race distance amongst some of the top riders this season has to offer. Now that he has the home ground advantage, he will be hoping to go better and take his first win since stepping into the Noale factory.
Then there’s the championship leader, Quartararo. The Frenchman has never run well at this track, having finished eighth in two of the last three races held in Aragon, and will have eyed this race off when previewing the season as a potential loss of points to his rivals. Back in the Sachsenring, this would have been a fine damage limitation to consider given the incredible form he was on, but Bagnaia has shaved 61 points out of him in four races. If Quartararo wants this championship, an eighth place finish on Sunday just isn’t an option.
It’s unclear exactly what about the Aragon circuit is so punishing for Quartararo, but he will be hoping the upgrades made to his Yamaha at the recent Misano test will help stem the bleeding this weekend. Top speed has been a serious issue all season for the reigning champion, and it appears the changes to the Yamaha package should aid in his ongoing fight against the army of Ducatis up and down the grid. Whatever happens, Saturday’s qualifying session is going to be critical to his chances.
The other factor that could help Quartararo is the returning King of MotoGP. Marc Marquez has been cleared to rider following the Misano test and his most recent lengthy layoff, and returns to a track that has seen plenty of success for him in the past. Marc has won here five times before, and ran Bagnaia all the way to the finish in their 2021 encounter, so it’s safe to say he knows how to race (and win) at Aragon. Should he bring his A game to Sunday’s race, he could be a genuine challenger for the victory.
How likely are we to see a big result from Marc? It depends on whether you believe him and his team. Both Marc and his manager have admitted that their plans for this round involve taking things slowly and not treating it like a standard race weekend, which means the goal will likely be to build up his stamina and strength on the bike rather than throw himself immediately into the deep end. That said, this is Marc Marquez we’re talking about, and the likelihood that he shows some magic on Sunday is pretty high regardless of what he says to the media.
So, will Bagnaia win on Sunday? The short answer is probably, but the longer answer is that there’s plenty of riders champing at the bit with a goal of beating him to the punch. Should one of them have the speed and consistency to fight Bagnaia in the race, we could be in for a treat. Should more than one of them enter the fray, it could easily be the best race of the season.
Solomon Talks Bikes 