Thinking back to the early stages of this championship, I remember the key topic that everyone was focused on was consistency. When we had nine different podium finishers in three races, and it took until Texas for us to see a repeat winner for the first time, it seemed as though there was no-one on the grid able to find consistent success. The consensus among those of us who study the sport and commentate on it was that the issue was the tracks, not the riders or bikes. We were in alien territory, circuits that the paddock hadn’t visited since before covid swept the world, and once we settled into more familiar territory things would settle down.
With Austria done, it feels like a good time to reflect on that sentiment. We now have just seven races left in the season, three in Europe and four in the Asia-Pacific, and have a full nine race results to study since the dramatic grand prix of the Americas back in April. In those races, we have seen only three victors: Pecco Bagnaia with five, Fabio Quartararo with three and a lone win in Le Mans for Enea Bastianini. Nine different riders have bagged a podium over the course of those races, and every podium has contained between one and two Ducatis. The podium tally is being lead by Quartararo, with six pieces of silverware from Portimao onwards, but many are close behind on four or five.
The consistency we were looking for appears to have been found. The championship is finally moving towards its final stages, and we have a clear picture of who the protagonists are. With 175 points left on the table, and Quartararo leading the charge on 200, there are now riders who mathematically cannot win the title – namely, four of the five rookies and the outbound Andrea Dovizioso. By the time we finish Misano and Aragon, that list of names will have grown much longer. And come the end of the season, I’m extremely confident that the title will fall in favour of one of three men: Quartararo, Bagnaia or Aleix Espargaro.
Let’s start with Bagnaia. The Italian has bagged his third win on the trot and fifth of the season, matching a record previously only managed by Aussie champ Casey Stoner of three wins in a row on board a Ducati. The factory rider was imperious on Sunday, taking the lead early and refusing to relinquish it for more than a corner or two when teammate Miller tried a pass. This is the Bagnaia that we have seen burst onto the scene in the last 12 months, and the one that felt missing at several key stages this year. He’s fast, he’s methodical, and he knows how to win a lot of races and keep the title fight going.
It helped that the track was favourable to the Ducatis, but we saw plenty of examples of other riders on similar hardware having less success. Jack Miller looked strong at the start but couldn’t match his teammates late race pace, likely due to the soft front tire they both selected overheating in Bagnaia’s wake. Bastianini looked to be on for a big result but retired early on after hitting a kerb and damaging his bike. JorgeMartin had some fierce pace in the second half but binned it trying an unnecessarily risky move on Miller for third, and Johann Zarco was forced to climb back up the ranks after a difficult start and lack of overall feeling.
In amongst all this, the championship leader and sole source of income for Yamaha was riding one of the best races of his career to date. Quartararo came to this circuit expecting disaster and instead wound up bagging second place and twenty valuable points. There were plenty of technical factors that aided the Frenchman in his ride, but overall the point needs to be made that none of this should even be possible right now. The Yamaha has been a woeful bike for three of its four riders this season, yet Quartararo stands atop the standings with a 32-point lead and only two real challengers remaining in the title fight. He has more than four times the points of all other Yamaha riders combined, and if you remove him from the manufacturer’s standings the Japanese brand falls to a distant last.
How is he managing this? There’s two elements that are at play here. The first is that he is unequivocally talented, and is simply riding on a level that few-to-none on the grid can match. In this regard, the bike may even be holding him back from achieving his true potential. The second factor is that Quartararo has figured out what the strengths of the Yamaha are, and he is squeezing every last bit of effort he can from those small advantages. Gone are the days from earlier in the season where he complains at every track about the lack of horsepower in the Yamaha’s engine. Instead, he shows up every weekend and puts his head down, focusing on himself and the elements of the bike that can be changed or controlled.
If Bagnaia continues on the current trajectory he’s on, then Quartararo will need to find some answers in the coming races. Pecco sits 44 points adrift, having shaved 47 off the Frenchman in the last three races. It’s not inconceivable that the Ducati rider could continue applying pressure at the same rate for some time, at which point Quartararo will need to find something extra to claw some points back. A few more wins wouldn’t go astray for him, and he needs other riders to take key positions away from Bagnaia on a couple of occasions. For now, the momentum is with the Italian.
The third man still realistically in the hunt for the 2022 title is Aleix Espargaro, who had a truly horrid weekend in Austria. Having never found a setup that felt comfortable to him in any practice session, the Aprilia rider had to fight through from Q1 to Q2 and barely scraped his way onto the third row. His race didn’t exactly improve from there, never making an impact on the leading group and getting beaten out by several Ducatis coming past. Yet, this was an important sixth place – a result that he desperately needed after the massive loss of points due to his injury in Silverstone.
When we left for the summer break, the consensus was that Espargaro needed to continue to pressure Quartararo’s advantage, yet instead the Spaniard now finds himself eleven points further down the road than he was to begin with. It’s not a disaster, not yet at least, but despite being closer to the top of the standings than Bagnaia I would say he’s in the more precarious position. After all, Bagnaia has been in this position before, chaining together wins in an attempt to chase down the runaway Quartararo back in 2021. For Aleix, this is new territory, and he needs to start reducing the advantage to Quartararo quickly before he gets swallowed up in the battle between the two younger riders.
The final podium finisher deserves a shout-out as well. Miller has been on an absolute tear lately, putting together consistent podium finishes and looking to have pace for the front of the race on numerous occasions. Had it not been for the unbelievable manoeuvre Espargaro pulled on him and Brad Binder in the final chicane of Assen, the Aussie would be on a 4-race podium streak, something to be very proud of indeed given the struggles for consistency every rider has faced this season. He looks set to finish his tenure with Ducati as one of their top riders, something that seemed inconceivable earlier in the year with Bastianini and Martin sizing him up.
On the flip side, I pity the Suzuki engineers who will no doubt have sat through some rough meetings recently. Almost the entire time since the announcement of the factory’s departure from the sport, both riders have been suffering terrible results, and Sunday was no different. Mir got flung off at high speeds and has suffered an ankle fracture, as well as the indignity of his sixth DNF of the past nine races, and Rins had a quiet race to take 8th place. It feels like the light has fully left the Suzuki squad, and the riders are now simply battling to survive to the end of the season as opposed to fighting for big results.
As a final note – the lower classes saw some fantastic racing this weekend, and the result in both instances was resounding success for the up-and-coming Asian talent. Moto3 saw Ayumu Sasaki ride one of the best races of the season to win ahead of Tatsuki Suzuki in second, and Moto2 Honda Team Asia riders Ai Ogura and Somkiat Chantra took a dominant 1-2 across the line. Three Japanese riders and a buoyant Thai character – it was brilliant to see, for so many reasons.
I think the biggest takeaway for me is that the system is clearly working. MotoGP reached a point a while back where there was little to no Asian talent across any of the classes, with European talent getting rolled into the classes at assembly-line rates, and opportunities like the Asia Talent Cup have really helped bolster their numbers in all three classes. Representation in this sport is so, so important, and it was delightful to see such a dominant performance from so many talented Asian riders. Look out for all four of these riders in the future – they’re coming for those prized MotoGP seats, no doubt about it.
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