Ah, the Red Bull Ring. Likely one of if not the most dangerous circuits on the current MotoGP calendar, the Austrian circuit has been a home for high intensity racing and top speed records since its introduction back in 2016. We’ve seen numerous fantastic battles, from Marquez v Dovi to the dogfight last year, but we’ve also seen a myriad of major crashes and safety concerns. In the last two seasons there’s been three red flags thrown during MotoGP races here, and a couple more from the junior classes to boot.
Why is the track so dangerous? Mostly, because the layout is completely nuts. Riders will race along massive straights, hitting well over 300km/h on their way, and then slam on the brakes and head into slow, tedious corners. It’s a circuit that has always favoured the brave, those who are willing to leave their braking later than the rest and pray the bike complies with their instructions, but that mentality inevitably leads to accidents. We’ve seen broken air fences, bikes split in two or on fire, and two wrecked machines fly across the track nearly wiping out several riders.
Which is why this year, we have a new layout to contend with. It’s not a drastic change – the infamous turn 2, which is not really a turn so much as a high-speed kink between turns 1 and 3, has been separated out into a little chicane – but it addresses the most dangerous section of the circuit, the area in which we have seen most of the devastating crashes in recent years. With the momentum carried up the hill into turn 3 being drastically cut, riders won’t have to rely quite so heavily on late and heavy braking, which should lead to a lower likelihood of crashes.
It’s difficult to say who this new layout favours, or whether it changes the balance of power at the Ring. Horsepower-heavy manufacturers have always done well here thanks to the numerous straights allowing them to flex their muscles; Ducati have been the main beneficiary, but Honda and KTM have also done well in the past. The new chicane means there is one less straight where riders can hit those massive top speeds, but it’s not quite flowing enough that we can say definitely the likes of Suzuki and Yamaha will gain an advantage. Most likely, it will lead to closer racing and more overtakes, something riders and fans alike will be rather pleased with.
Ducati will surely still go into this weekend as the bookie’s favourite to take the top step on Sunday. Having won six of the eight races held here, and made appearances on the other two podiums, they clearly have an edge here over other manufacturers. Admittedly, not all of their current riders have phenomenal records here, but Jorge Martin won the Styrian race last year and both he and Pecco Bagnaia wound up on the podium in race two. Miller nearly nabbed a win back in 2020, too, and though he is a rookie it should be noted that Marco Bezzechi has won multiple Moto2 races here in the past.
KTM could be considered a dark horse for the weekend. Despite it being a home race for the Austrian company, they only started converting strong results here in 2020, and the bike this year hasn’t shown the same strength that previous models have. That said, both factory riders have won here in the past – Miguel Oliveira in 2020 and Brad Binder in an infamous mixed-conditions shocker in 2021 – and the sheer energy of the local fans should spur on something extra out of their riders.
Then there’s Aprilia. Aleix Espargaro is ready to bounce back from his injury-riddled British grand prix, and Maverick Vinales is looking to be in incredibly good form at present. The 2022 Aprilia package is well rounded, and with the addition of the new chicane they likely won’t have to rely as much on horsepower. The Italian factory has yet to grace the podium in Austria, but they’ve been one of the most consistent manufacturers of this season and should be expected to continue that trend pretty much regardless.
Despite the circuit not being favourable on paper for the likes of Yamaha and Suzuki, I also wouldn’t rule out Fabio Quartararo from a surprise podium come Sunday. The Frenchman bagged some silverware here back in 2021 and looked good throughout the rain-affected second race, and was able to push the Yamaha in ways none of his compatriots could. Given the fact that ‘Quartararo doing things on a Yamaha no-one else can’ has been one of the overarching stories of the 2022 campaign, I’d say he should be able to repeat that feat this weekend, especially with the genuine danger of Bagnaia continuing to rip apart his once-healthy championship lead. Should he continue to lose points hand over fist to the Ducati rider, the title fight could end up going right down to the line.
Based on past results, I would be loathed to ignore the possibility of a strong result from Suzuki here as well, but they’ve had such an awful turn of form lately that it’s incredibly difficult to see them performing well this year. Rins and Mir have had solid results at the Ring in both 2020 and 2021, but their respective championships have all but evaporated since the news dropped that Suzuki is leaving the class at the end of the year. They’re both in dire need of a turnaround in form for their final season with the Japanese brand, and while it could theoretically come here I certainly wouldn’t be brave enough to put money on it.
So who will win in the Austrian hills? Probably a Ducati, maybe a KTM, perhaps even an Aprilia. Whatever happens, it will be fast and furious – but hopefully not as dangerous as previous instalments.
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