What should have been a very calm contract season has boiled over into one of the most unpredictable and unusual silly seasons in recent memory. At the start of this season we were anticipating many squads to remain the same for the next season thanks to the level of competition across the class, but some surprise bits of news (cough cough, Suzuki) have thrown the class into chaos and left many top riders scrambling for a ride for next year. It has been entertaining to watch, but it finally feels like we can piece together the rest of the grid for 2023.
At time of writing, ten seats have been locked in for next season. Aleix Espargaro, Maverick Vinales, Pecco Bagnaia, Marc Marquez, Brad Binder, Fabio Quartararo and Franco Morbidelli will all retain their current factory contracts, while Fabio DiGiannantonio will stay at the Gresini satellite squad for another year. Jack Miller is confirmed to be departing to join the KTM factory team, and Alex Marquez is jumping ship from Honda to join Diggia in Gresini. With Suzuki leaving the grid, that leaves just twelve spots free, so who is going to end up where?
Jorge Martin: Pramac Racing -> Ducati Lenovo OR retained
This is the one of the biggest remaining sources of controversy: who will Ducati pick to line up alongside Pecco Bagnaia in their factory team? A three-horse race for the second spot has been whittled down to two with Miller now out of the running, and we can expect to know whether Martin or Bastianini has landed the seat by the end of August. Currently, my money would be on Martin, but it’s certainly a close call.
Johann Zarco: Pramac Racing -> retained
This is an easy one, because Ducati have previously announced that they intend to keep Zarco at Pramac. There’s no signature on paper yet, but this one is as close to a done deal as it can be. Ducati want a mix of youth and experience, and Zarco will stay on as one of their better testing riders to date.
Enea Bastianini: Gresini Racing -> Pramac Racing OR Ducati Lenovo
See above. I put Pramac first because I personally feel like it’s the more likely outcome, but I’m happy to be wrong on this one.
Luca Marini: Mooney VR46 -> retained
Why would VR46 consider getting rid of Marini at this point? He had a perfectly serviceable rookie year in 2021 and has converted that into a pretty consistent sophomore season. He’s not smashing any records, but the improvement from Marini is visible both on track and on paper, so he’s a lock for next year.
Marco Bezzechi: Mooney VR46 -> retained
Bezzechi has been the top rookie of 2022 hands down, and with a first podium locked up in Assen and a front row start in Mugello to boot, he’s assuredly sticking around for 2023 and beyond. With no VR46 boys making a strong enough case in the lower classes to usurp him, it seems like Bezz will stay put and continue growing with a team he’s more than familiar with.
Pol Espargaro: Repsol Honda -> Tech3 KTM
Espargaro had one of his best seasons on record onboard a factory KTM in 2020, having worked on the bike since its inception back in 2017. Two complicated years at Honda later, he’s ready to be welcomed back to the fold of the Austrian manufacturer, partly because KTM need a turnaround of form and partly because Honda need to get rid of him to make room for Joan Mir’s imminent entry.
Takaaki Nakagami: Idemitsu LCR Honda -> dropped
As stated earlier this week, Nakagami went into this season with a target on his back from fellow Japanese rider Ai Ogura. Where Ogura has risen to glory this year in the Moto2 title fight, Nakagami has fallen short repeatedly, and looks set for a MotoGP exit after five seasons of mixed results. I would expect either a return to Moto2 or a test rider role are on the cards for Taka.
Miguel Oliveira: Red Bull KTM -> WithU Aprilia RNF
Oliveira was expected to move on from KTM from the start of this season, but most people’s early prediction was a Suzuki factory switch. That… obviously isn’t happening any more, so his next best options were a Gresini debut on a Ducati or the newly-acquired Aprilia satellite seats at RNF. The former got snatched up by Alex Marquez, so all signs point to an RNF switch for the Portugese rider.
Raul Fernandez: Tech3 KTM -> WithU Aprilia RNF
Raul wasn’t happy with his MotoGP debut before it even began, stating his desire to remain in Moto2 for a second year to fight for the title once more, so we all knew he was looking for an exit from day one. That exit appears to have taken form in a deal with RNF over at Aprilia, though some recent rumours say they might be keeping their options open for a couple of other riders. Whatever happens, Fernandez is surely on the move at the end of 2022.
Remy Gardner: Tech3 KTM -> retained
Gardner hasn’t had the debut season we all expected of him, but he also doesn’t have any fantastic options outside of the KTM fold, so it seems he will be staying put for the time being. The bike he’s on could surely do with some work in the meantime, and he may find his seat in danger in future seasons with a wealth of KTM-branded talent coming up in the lower classes.
Joan Mir: Suzuki Ecstar -> Repsol Honda
From the moment Suzuki’s departure was announced, this particular move was being touted as the best option for the 2020 MotoGP champion. The Honda should fit his preferred riding style, smooth but aggressive, and the Repsol team were keen to get rid of the baggage of Pol Espargaro anyway. A deal made in heaven, assuming Honda improve their bike in the off season.
Alex Rins: Suzuki Ecstar -> Castrol LCR Honda
Rins was originally linked to both the opening at Gresini and the expected vacancies at RNF, but both of those deals appear to have dissolved, which is a real shame for the Spaniard. And Aprilia or a Ducati would have likely been an awesome combination for Rins, but it appears the only option he has left is a spot with Honda in their satellite squad, which is all but confirmed thanks to a bored Marc Marquez’s drama stirring on Twitter after Assen.
Andrea Dovizioso: WithU Yamaha RNF -> retired
Dovi announced in an interview on the MotoGP website earlier this week that he would not be continuing for 2023, and that makes sense based on his riding this season. The Italian hasn’t gelled with the Yamaha on his return to the class, and he’s currently tied on points with his rookie teammate. There’s no shame in this, however – Dovi has had one of the most exceptional careers in recent memory, and can safely retire as one of the best of the riders competing in the 2010s.
Darryn Binder: WithU Yamaha RNF -> dropped
The bad news is that, after a reasonable first season in MotoGP, it appears the younger Binder brother is set to leave the class at the end of 2022. The good news is, it appears that a Moto2 ride is the likely next step for him, and he’s still young enough that an eventual return to the class isn’t that far-fetched. Given the nature of his promotion to the premier class, he should be pretty happy with how everything has shaken out this year.
Solomon Talks Bikes 