This time last year, Moto2 was heating up into one of the best championship showdowns we’ve been treated to in quite some time. A monstrous battle between two teammates had formed, two men who had proved themselves to be stronger than their opponents time and time again. One was in his sixth season in the class, and finally paying out on all the trust and faith that had been given to him over the years; the other was a rookie, wickedly fast and breaking records as he went about upsetting the equilibrium of the class. They took more wins and more podiums than anyone else in the class combined, and took the championship battle right down to the final round.
I am of course referring to Remy Gardner and Raul Fernandez. The two of them rode phenomenally all year in the 2021 Moto2 campaign, and were rightfully promoted to MotoGP as a result. In total, four of the five race winners in the intermediate class of ’21 made the step to the premier class, with the exception being class stalwart Sam Lowes. This is the way things have been in Moto2 for quite some time: champions rise up to claim the crown, contenders rally to stop them, and then the best of the crop move on to bigger things and allow a new group to battle for the following year’s title. Since the inaugural season in 2010, only two champions have stayed in the class for the following season, and only one has ever taken a second Moto2 title.
We now stand at the midpoint of the 2022 championship, and I can confidently say that I have no idea who is going to win this year’s Moto2 title. The top three men in the championship are split by a single point, and the list of riders still arguably in contention extends all the way down to ninth or tenth in the standings. For every rider who has shown strength and speed on multiple occasions this season, they have equally had moments of weakness and failure. No rider in the top ten has finished every race of the season, and several of the top men have multiple DNF’s to match their victories and podiums.
In a way, this could have been predicted at the start of the year given the power vacuum that was left in the wake of Gardner and Fernandez. The two Ajo teammates were so strong that they left little room for others to shine and showcase their talents, and the few riders who were able to beat them on a good day came up to MotoGP with them anyway. We were left with a Moto2 class that had no obvious title contenders, and though pre-season testing highlighted a few potential favourites it was clearly disguising just how close the class was set to be. The reality was staring us in the face from pretty early on in the series: no-one was going to step up and fill the void of last year’s titans.
That’s not to say there aren’t good riders in this year’s class. If anything, there is an abundance of strong riders in Moto2 currently, and the depth of the talent pool is part of what’s causing this flux of form. Gardner and Fernandez were able to do what they did because no-one else was at the same level as them, but this year there are a number of riders all operating at around the same quality of form. If any one of them could find superior consistency and speed in the remaining races they would run away with the championship, but the odds of this happening seem fairly slim.
Speaking of which, let’s take a look at who is in the running as it stands. The top three are currently Italy’s Celestino Vietti, Spain’s Augusto Fernandez (no relation) and Japan’s Ai Ogura. Vietti and Augusto have both taken three wins apiece so far this year, but their off days have severely dampened their championship potential. Ogura stands out as the most consistent of the three, but has only managed a single win from eleven races and appears to be lacking the raw drive and speed necessary to overthrow the other two. These three riders, split by a single point with nine to go, are the most likely contenders for taking the Moto2 crown come November.
I would argue there are four other contenders in this title race, with varying degrees of likelihood for each of them to still be in the running when we reach Valencia for the final round. Aron Canet is the strongest rider to not win a race this year, and has paired a slew of podiums with a number of unfortunate crashes and injuries that have held him back from his true potential. Thankfully, he has a number of weeks left in his Summer break to continue healing and recovering in order to be fully fit when the series returns, but the combination of unfortunate factors has left him 30 points off the lead. He will need some additional consistency, as well as a few race wins, if he wants to get back into contention.
Next most likely are Joe Roberts and Tony Arbolino, who both took their first wins in the class this season. These riders have benefited the most from mistakes made by the championship leaders, with Roberts claiming victory in Portugal after ten riders were eliminated ahead of him and Tiger Tony winning in Texas after both Canet and Vietti slid out of comfortable leading positions. Their consistency has been fine, passable for this season’s context but nothing to write home about, and will surely need to become weekly podium finishers if they want a shot at overcoming the 40+ point deficit they currently face.
Then there’s the curious case of Pedro Acosta. The Spanish rookie and reigning Moto3 champion has not had the season many were expecting of him, namely because he was the bookie’s favourite to take down the championship on his first attempt after setting scorching pace throughout pre-season tests. Instead, it’s been a period of growth and learning for Acosta as he adapted to the competitive nature of the class, and though he has taken a win already he looks to have fallen fractionally too far away to be a realistic contender. The reason I include him in my list is that having watched his performances last year in the junior category, you just can’t rule him out of doing something phenomenal in the back half of this Moto2 campaign, no matter how long the odds are.
So, the realistic challengers are Vietti, Augusto Fernandez, Ogura and Canet. Picking a candidate for most likely among them is a complicated task, because none of them have shown the consistency needed to beat out their rivals so far this year. Augusto heads into the rear half of the championship as the in-form man, with two wins on the trot in Sachsenring and Assen, but Vietti was similarly dominant in the opening three rounds and can’t be ruled out from repeating such performances in the remaining races. Canet has arguably looked the best on a week-in-week-out basis, but his injuries and lack of wins continue to plague him. Ogura feels like he’s still a step away from the top of the class, but his performance in Assen was genuinely astonishing and he is a known threat each weekend.
My gut says that Augusto is the danger man of the four, mainly because of something often discussed on this site: momentum. A championship challenge is built on a riders ability to chain together solid results and push themselves for consistency. Currently, Augusto heads into the summer break on the back of two consecutive wins and three podiums, where his rivals have had various mistakes in the races leading into the holiday period. If he can retain that momentum when we return in Silverstone, he should be able to inch out some kind of advantage before we hit the Asian fly-away rounds for the first time since 2019 and all hell breaks loose.
The curious thing is, regardless of who wins the title, there likely won’t be room at the inn for them in MotoGP. Thanks to the bottleneck of available contracts created by the surprise Suzuki exit at the end of this season, it appears the number of rookie riders in the 2023 premier class could be as low as one, with Ogura challenging Takaaki Nakagami for his Japanese-sponsored seat at LCR. This could lead us to a situation where most or all of the championship contenders in this year’s Moto2 class will be coming back for a second shot at the title next year, something that rarely happens in the intermediate class. We could even see a rider take back-to-back Moto2 titles for just the second time in history – the last being Johann Zarco – or some exciting team swaps as riders try and give themselves the best chance for success in 2023.
Regardless, it has to be said that the Moto2 championship this year has felt devoid of a true championship leader, someone who can dictate the narrative of the series and force others to step up their game to keep in touch at the top. Even before Gardner and Fernandez, we’ve always seen top men rise to the challenge in the intermediate class, including current MotoGP stars like Brad Binder, Alex Marquez, Pecco Bagnaia and Franco Morbidelli (I’m ignoring the 2020 championship in this list because it was a wild year). Whoever wins this championship will likely do so on the back of whatever results they can piece together in the second half of the series, since the first half has left us all clueless as to who is the biggest threat.
Personally, rather than betting on who will win the 2022 championship in Moto2, I’ll be putting my money on the fact that the 2023 season should be an absolute barnstormer. Time will tell, I suppose.
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