The silly season has been particularly silly this season. Two major factors have heavily shaken up what should have been a fairly easy set of contract talks: Suzuki leaving the premier class, and the state of the Moto2 championship. The announcement that Suzuki intended to leave the MotoGP class at the end of the season shrank the 24 available seats down to just 22, putting extra pressure on the riders looking for seats while also adding to exciting prospects in Rins and Mir to the open market. Every manufacturer had to consider the two talented Spaniards against their existing options, mucking up a lot of existing plans.
Then there’s the issue of the Moto2 class. Normally at this stage of the championship there would be some number of top riders in the intermediate class vying for a rookie stint in the premier class for next year, but this year’s title fight has been about as swingy and unpredictable as it possibly could be. No single rider has stood out or been dominant, and most riders have struggled to have more than two or three good results on the trot. We went into the Summer break with the top three men in the championship split by a single point.
In past seasons this would be somewhat disappointing, but right now it’s actually kind of a relief to see. We’ve had multiple seasons in recent history with four or more rookies in the MotoGP class, and while this rapidly-changing lineup is fun for some it removes a level of stability from both the premier class and the intermediate class supplying said rookies. We no longer see many ‘career’ Moto2 and Moto3 riders, who spend extended periods making a name for themselves in the lower classes rather than trying to ladder up to MotoGP as quickly as possible. With so many riders coming in and out of Moto2, there’s no consistent rivalries formed, no legacies produced. Hopefully we might see some more of that in the next year or so.
Regardless of all that, there has been one Moto2 rider that people have been talking about for a potential MotoGP move since the start of this year: Ai Ogura. The Japanese rider has shown a huge amount of promise in both classes he has competed in so far, coming incredibly close to winning the 2020 Moto3 title and taking a podium in his first season of Moto2. This year, he has taken his first win since joining the grand prix paddock, and currently sits third in the standings and one point away from the championship lead. He has impressed with his riding style and calm consistency, and had a brilliant race in Assen fighting back from thirteenth to second.
Why was Ogura in particular on people’s minds from the beginning of the year? The biggest factor isn’t his talent, it’s actually his nationality. The LCR squad in MotoGP has two seats with two different title sponsors: the Japanese oil brand Idemitsu, and the British company Castrol. Since stepping in to bring LCR up from one seat to two, Idemitsu have stated that their intent is to utilise their seat for the promotion of Asian riders, and have done similarly for the Honda Team Asia squads in Moto2 and Moto3. Their first signing was Takaaki Nakagami, who has ridden for them since 2018.
Nakagami has done a fine job in the premier class, but certainly nothing to write home about. The Japanese rider took some time to adjust to the class, and even when he was at his best (circa 2020) he couldn’t manage a podium finish at any point. He has done a solid amount of testing work for Honda along the way, and on his good days is a top 8 contender, but he has arguably overstayed his welcome in the premier class. There’s an argument that he has only lasted as long as he has because no other Asian riders have stepped forward to contest his seat from the lower classes.
Nakagami has also taken a dip in form this year, at exactly the worst time. Both riders in the Honda Team Asia Moto2 squad have taken race wins this year, with Ogura looking like a serious championship contender eleven races in. Nakagami would have seen Ogura getting stronger and stronger in the second half of the 2021 campaign and known he needed to elevate his game to retain his seat in the premier class, but things just haven’t worked out for him this season. Not only is Ogura far and away outperforming his Japanese counterpart, but he also has the advantage of already being in the Idemitsu fold.
To be clear, Ogura’s background isn’t the only factor in the likelihood of his promotion. The youngster has shown consistency and speed worthy of a shot at MotoGP, and while he hasn’t been consistent in his Moto2 performances this year he’s certainly been doing better than some of his other contenders. If anything, the level of consistency he has been able to find is particularly impressive given how competitive this year’s Moto2 championship has been. Every time he puts together a strong result, he’s just putting more pressure on Nakagami for his seat, and there’s not much pressure on his part since he can simply remain in the Moto2 class for another season if necessary.
With most of the remaining free seats in MotoGP looking pretty much set in stone, this Idemitsu showdown represents the most interesting point of contention for the remainder of this contract season. Whichever rider ends up landing the spot at LCR, I only hope that they prove themselves deserving of it in the remainder of the 2022 season.
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