What a difference a weekend can make. This time on Thursday, if someone had asked me who would win the 2022 MotoGP championship, I would have said that it had to be Fabio Quartararo. How could it not be? The reigning champion was on a hot streak of form, two wins in a row and three from the last six, and hadn’t finished any lower than fourth since we hit the European leg of the season. Despite being on a bike that appeared weaker than much of the opposition, he was able to command and control races from the front, and still rack up solid points hauls when he couldn’t. Mistakes were looking few and far between, something he ironed out in the 2020-2021 off season.
But a mistake was made on Sunday in Assen, one which brings the current championship whirling back into action just in time for the Summer break. Having finished every race of the season so far in the points, Quartararo finally binned it, and in rather spectacular fashion. With his rival Pecco Bagnaia striding away into the distance ahead, the Frenchman made a dive up the inside of Aleix Espargaro in an attempt to claim second and start hunting down the runaway Ducati bike. Quartararo didn’t make it out the other side, instead sliding out and forcing Espargaro’s Aprilia into the gravel trap as he went. In one fell swoop, the top two men in the championship were out of the points.
How does a mistake like that happen? The short answer is that it happens to all riders who race at such a high level, a consequence of a MotoGP competitor’s desire to win at all costs. The longer answer is that it was likely made more inevitable by the bike under the Frenchman. As I mentioned, it’s no secret that the 2022 Yamaha is struggling to compete against the European manufacturers around it, and Quartararo’s results of late are more reflective of his own talent than what the motorcycle is capable of. He’s been pushing it to the limit for months now, arguably since the Qatar race in March, and that was bound to bite him eventually.
Quartararo’s move earned the ire of the MotoGP stewards, however, and he will now return to the championship in August with a long lap penalty awaiting him in Silverstone. There’s a lot of reasons why I feel this is wrong, but the two key ones are this: why would you penalise someone for overtaking in a contest of speed, and especially when so many similar moves have gone without penalisation so far this season? Riders have come together on-track plenty of times so far this year, and yet this is the first instance in the premier class of 2022 of a rider being slapped with such a penalty. Where is the consistency in punishment, at the highest level of our beloved sport?
At the end of the day, Quartararo ran his bike up the inside of Aleix because he wanted to win, and he was doing his level best to make that happen. In a sport that has been dealing with something of an identity crisis this year, this kind of attitude is exactly what we need. Riders need to be willing to battle each other, fight for the results they believe themselves deserving of, otherwise each race will boil down to a procession of laps. Either you penalise every such crash, and let the competition devolve into freight trains with no movement, or you penalise none of them and let the racers race.
On the plus side, we were still treated to some fine racing, and a lot of it came from the man involved in Quartararo’s crash. Aleix Espargaro ran wide through the gravel and rejoined in fifteenth, and proceeded to have arguably the best comeback race of the season to date. The Aprilia man was silky smooth and lightning fast, lapping quicker than any other rider on track, and quickly set about picking off his opponents one at a time. Each time he looked like he would run out of steam, he found that little bit extra to hunt down the next pack ahead. After a particularly daring 2-in-1 move on the final lap, Aleix was able to nab fourth place, and take a chunk of points out of the current championship leader.
It was an awesome performance, and one where you have to feel that he could have won had he not been beaten up so early, but instead the win went to Pecco Bagnaia relatively unopposed. The factory Ducati rider has now racked up three wins for the season, albeit with four no-scores to match, and thanks to Quartararo’s crash he now looks far closer to the championship hunt than he did a week ago. This is exactly the result he needed after double disappointments in Catalunya and Germany, and you could see the relief on his face in parc ferme and on the podium. Bagnaia has bounced back, and will hope to carry this momentum through the Summer break and into the second half of the championship.
He was joined on the podium by two new faces for 2022. Marco Bezzechi took his first podium as a rookie MotoGP rider, and the first for the VR46 team, in brilliant fashion. The Italian qualified well, got off the line well, and avoided getting caught up in the early drama between Aleix and Fabio up ahead. Sure, he likely didn’t have the pace for either of them, but he kept the bike upright where they did not. It was an outstanding ride by Bezzechi, and he continues to carve out his place in the class as the top rookie of 2022. While he doesn’t have a contract locked in for next year, you have to believe that he will remain in his beloved VR46 family for at least a second season.
Third place went to Maverick Vinales, one year after his last podium in the premier class and at a circuit he’s had plenty of previous success at. This was the result he threatened at Sachsenring but was cruelly denied, and it was beautiful to see his patience rewarded in this way. The Aprilia has clearly been strong this year, but Maverick has remained overshadowed by his teammate throughout. With Aleix pushed so far back early on, it was the perfect opportunity for Vinales to bag a big result, and he took it with both hands. It appears that he is comfortable with the idea of playing wingman to Espargaro for the remainder of 2022, but you have to feel that this is the first of many strong results onboard the Aprilia for the veteran Spaniard.
So where does that leave us after eleven races? The championship is a lot closer than it was a week ago, but it’s assuredly still Quartararo’s to lose. Despite losing a chunk of points, he remains 21 points clear of Espargaro in second, and both Bagnaia and Bastianini are over 60 points back despite being level with him in number of wins. Zarco remains in the mix, but doesn’t appear to have the consistency or the killer winning instinct to actually pose a threat to the championship. Points have been left on the table by everyone at least once, but those with the most superior consistency have risen to the top, and these are the riders we should expect to battle it out for the title in November.
Realistically, I would say it will be fought between Quartararo and Espargaro, but given this weekend’s race in Assen you’d be a fool to fully rule out Pecco Bagnaia until it’s mathematically impossible for him to win. The Italian is just too gutsy, able to pull out awesome results when his back is against the wall, and he knows after last year that it’s possible to overturn huge chunks of points if you have the strength and consistency to make it happen. Bastianini and Zarco are less likely to play a role in the outcome of the championship, but could still easily be in the fight for the top three. Other than that, it would appear everyone else is a step too far away to fight for this particular championship.
As for next year’s championship, the silly season looks to be finally drawing to a close. Gresini Racing announced their updated line-up for 2023 over the weekend, retaining Fabio DiGiannantonio for a second season and bringing Alex Marquez and his wealth of sponsorships over from LCR. With these riders falling into place, a lot of the rest of the picture becomes clearer. The top three seats still available at Ducati will go to Zarco, Bastianini and Martin. KTM will assuredly retain Gardner, and bring Pol Espargaro back to the fold as his teammate. Aprilia will bag Raul Fernandez in their newly acquired satellite RNF squad, and partner him with either Oliveira or Rins as an experienced counterpart to his youth and speed. Despite none of these being confirmed, the sheer amount of coverage and conversation surrounding these moves makes it seem as though they are relatively close to being locked in.
Yes, we only have ten riders officially locked in for next season, but the rider market is still looking pretty much set in stone for next year, and in a way that’s good for the remainder of the championship. With most of these contracts close to completion, riders will be able to focus on giving the remaining nine races their absolute all, and pushing themselves for strong results all the way to the end in Valencia. Luckily, before they have to worry about any of that, everyone gets five weeks off to relax and recuperate before action kicks back off in Silverstone. Expect plenty of shirtless beach photos from the grid in the interim.
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