Certain tracks in the current MotoGP calendar come with a reputation attached to them. Mugello always brings the yellow army, the masses of Valentino Rossi fans that survive him even after his departure from the sport. The Thai grand prix is sweltering hot every year, while the British round in Silverstone is often bitterly cold. Valencia can often be rather processional as far as race results go, but Aragon always serves up a few surprises, despite being fairly close to one another geographically.
The TT Assen is one of those races every year that is almost guaranteed to be memorable. There’s something about the nature of this circuit that never ceases to provide real entertainment, regardless of what bikes are competing or what level of competitiveness the class contains. It’s a track made for riders, and the riders love it just as much as the fans do. The circuit is often referred to as The Cathedral, and it does well to earn such a title each time we pay a visit.
Take, for example, the 2018 race. Despite being a championship that would ultimately be a 2-man contest between Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso, the Assen grand prix was nothing short of spectacular. We were treated to an absolute dogfight of a race, with a whole pack of riders battling at the front of the race and overtaking multiple times a lap. Marquez, Dovi, Lorenzo, Rossi, Vinales, Rins, Crutchlow, Zarco – some of the best riders of multiple eras brought their very best to the Dutch race, and the fans were rewarded with arguably one of the best races of the decade.
Even when the elements don’t play along, the Assen circuit can still provide us with entertainment. The 2016 race saw a red flag come out around the middle of the lap counter thanks to horrid amounts of rain coming down and multiple riders crashing out in the treacherous conditions. The race restarted with a shortened grid, but even the very best struggled to master the wet track that faced them. As the stalwarts of the class fell, a plucky Aussie rider with nothing to lose bore down on the front of the pack, and Jack Miller took his first race victory in the MotoGP class in only his second season. The crowd was fanatical, Jack did a shoey, and all was right in the world.
I bring these examples up in answer to a point being made by many people within and without the paddock: that MotoGP is having a crisis of overtakes in 2022. With the rise of ride height devices and the increasing importance of aero packages, MotoGP bikes are increasingly difficult to overtake. The balancing of these aspects of the bikes make them incredibly front-heavy, not in weight but in grip and control, and riders can struggle to manage that while leaving their braking late enough to pass their opponents. We saw this primarily in Jerez and Le Mans, two races that felt incredibly processional once they got underway, but there have been other examples this year as well.
Assen will likely provide a real test of this logic. Realistically, if there were any track that could provide us with a real MotoGP race, even amongst the current technical era, it would be here in the Netherlands. The layout is fast and flowing in nature, with multiple chicanes and few real straights. To be fast around here requires trust in oneself and the bike underneath. With enough bravery, practically any corner here can become an overtaking opportunity, and basically all of them have seen at least one famous dive up the inside or breath-taking sweep.
It’s also a critical moment in the season. With a five week hiatus awaiting on the other side of this weekend, riders will be itching to end the first half of this year’s championship on a high note, and carry momentum into the second half after the summer break. Recent seasons have shown just how important momentum is in a modern-day championship. Fabio Quartararo lost the 2020 campaign by falling apart and losing all momentum in the back half of the season, but won in 2021 by reversing his fortunes and remaining consistent. The mentality of this sport cannot be underestimated.
In fact, it should surprise no-one that Quartararo comes into this race carrying the best momentum of any rider in the grid. The Frenchman arrives in the Netherlands on the back of two consecutive wins, and looks set to make it a third this weekend barring any disasters. That’s just the level he’s on at the moment – despite the apparent weaknesses of the Yamaha as a motorcycle, Fabio is able to push it to the absolute limit and run circles around his opponents. Based on his results in the first half of this season, one has to expect that the only man who can stand in the way of Quartararo’s second world title is himself. And with his mental fortitude stronger than we’ve ever seen it, that seems an unlikely turn of events indeed.
Who else could be strong here? Theoretically, the Suzukis and Aprilias should have the upper hand, and the likes of Joan Mir and Aleix Espargaro will be banking on that. Both Spaniards had a rough weekend in Germany last time out, with Mir crashing out of what looked to be a solid points haul and Aleix falling behind several Ducati riders thanks to issues with tire heat and pressure. Aleix in particular will be hoping to take some points away from Quartararo here and arrest some of his momentum, as he currently sits second in the championship and represents the most likely candidate to take the fight to the Frenchman. The Aprilia hasn’t seen any serious success here before, but looks good enough on paper so far this year that it should be expected to perform pretty much everywhere.
Aleix’s teammate will hold similar hopes. Vinales had his best race of the season in the Sachsenring, and looked set to fight for his first podium since joining the team before a technical fault with his rear ride height device ruled him out. A previous version of Vinales would have been ruined by such a result, but this year’s Maverick appears to have a much stronger will than we’ve seen from him in the past. As long as he can learn from Germany and continue to improve upon himself, he could be on for a really impressive result this weekend – he has won here before, after all.
Speaking of momentum, two manufacturers who will be looking to turn theirs around here are Honda and KTM. Both teams have been struggling with their technical packages for most of this year, especially since we reached Europe, and will want to see an upturn in form before the Summer break. Honda may struggle the most, as they are still without their main man Marc Marquez, but should KTM have some luck on their side they could certainly rebound from recent results. Here’s hoping they can add to the competitiveness of the weekend, and bring us another titanic Assen scrap.
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