When I was thinking about the riders that had a chance at the win on Sunday in Germany, I figured that the most likely candidates had to be the current championship heavyweights. Fabio Quartararo, Aleix Espargaro, Pecco Bagnaia: these men have been the strongest riders of the season so far, in qualifying trim and race results. At a circuit like the Sachsenring where a single rider had claimed total domination for nearly a decade but couldn’t compete in the 2022 race, they seemed like the obvious candidates to take the throne from its rightful King. It seemed only natural given the strength of previous winner Marc Marquez that someone of equal fortitude would be his natural successor.
Weighing up the three options heading into the race, there were some factors to consider on all fronts. Take Aleix Espargaro for example: the Spaniard is in the form of his life this season, but only had one win to date and was coming off of one of the most embarrassing moments of his career in the Catalunya clash. Sure, it feels like he’s right on the pulse every weekend at the moment, but there’s always something holding him back, be it tire issues or mechanical faults or other riders doing him dirty on track.
Then there’s the Ducati hero of Francesco Bagnaia. The Italian looked genuinely phenomenal on Friday and Saturday, as he often does, and managed to break the lap record twice on his way to pole position. He’s fast, and when he’s on form he appears nigh unbeatable, but there have just been so many mistakes so far this season from him. How can you trust a rider to win at a track as demanding as the Sachsenring when they already have 3 DNFs to their name in 2022? It was a gamble to be sure.
And then there’s the reigning champion, Quartararo. The Frenchman had another quiet Friday, working his way up the timesheets with consistency, and landed himself on the front row in qualifying. Gone are the days where Quartararo desperately needs to top every single session and is heartbroken when he isn’t the fastest rider on track. Today’s Quartararo is calm, confident, and knows how to manage himself over a weekend to maximise his results. The only real concern was whether he would be able to handle the swarm of faster Ducatis and Aprilias surrounding him on the grid.
As an aside: for several years now, my friends and I have been running a MotoGP league every week where we fill out tipping sheets to see who can most accurately predict the race results. It’s a bit of fun between mates, as all friendly competitions are, but it does keep you thinking about potential race results over the course of the weekend. Heading into the Sachsenring race, I was confident of the three riders who would make up the podium, but couldn’t fathom which one might end up on top. In the end, I erred on the side of the poleman, assuming that Bagnaia would be spurred onto a good result by his crash in Catalunya two weeks ago.
It was a fair call, but it didn’t pay off. Quartararo took the lead of the race heading into turn one, conceded it for all of three seconds a couple of laps later, and ran away with the win. The Frenchman did exactly what he’s been proving himself capable of for months now and dominated his opposition with a searing pace and unrelenting consistency. His strategy played out exactly how he drew it up: get ahead early, get a lead, manage the tires, don’t let the other riders get a sniff of first place. The reigning champion and current championship leader looks to be unstoppable in his current state.
Watching him race is also something of a marvel. Quartararo rides in a very physical way, and as viewers we were able to revel in his personal style this weekend thanks to a shoulder cam attached to his leathers. Seeing the way he throws himself around the bike was amazing – it’s fast and physical, but also controlled and smooth – but arguably the more enjoyable part was seeing the incredible lean angles he produces onboard his Yamaha. Quartararo has a way of leaning his whole body into every corner and gliding around the apex that most other riders simply can’t match. It was a thoroughly enjoyable element of the weekend.
Fabio’s dominance on Sunday was helped somewhat by both of his key rivals having off days. Bagnaia looked ready to hunt Quartararo after the opening exchange, but tipped the rear out at turn 1 and crashed out for the third time in four races. Aleix Espargaro didn’t fare much better, the Spaniard struggling to run the pace of the leading riders and eventually dropping to fourth after conceding his podium position to Aussie Jack Miller. Both men needed to use this weekend to claw back some advantage in the championship against the current leader, and both failed.
This is bad news for them on a number of levels. Firstly, the next two races on the calendar were both won by Quartararo last time we visited, so he will likely head to both feeling confident of repeat success. Secondly, these results continue to showcase just how consistent the Frenchman currently is compared to his rivals. Fabio now has three wins to his name this season, plus a further three podiums. Tied for wins is Enea Bastianini, but the Gresini rider has only managed 25 points on top of his three victories. Bagnaia has two wins but four DNFs for the season. Aleix is the only man looking close to Quartararo’s consistency, but with only one win he sits over 30 points adrift in the championship regardless.
With Sachsenring done, we are now officially at the halfway point of the championship. Riders are fast running out of opportunities to change the tone of their seasons and push themselves into better results. The riders taking multiple podiums in recent races are the ones who have been the most confident and consistent all year, and those who have fallen by the wayside are being continually punished for it. The list of competitors who could feasibly challenge Quartararo for the title is getting slimmer and slimmer, and that should raise alarm bells for everyone.
So who else had a good weekend in Germany? Well, the other Frenchman on the grid certainly looked pleased with his result. Johann Zarco finished second, five seconds behind the leader but several seconds up the road from third, in what turns out to be his fourth consecutive top five finish. Weirdly, this makes Zarco the most consistent rider Ducati has right now, despite being winless for the season (and his entire time in the MotoGP class). He now sits third in the championship, and though I wouldn’t expect him to be in the fight for this year’s crown I do expect him to finish the season close to the top of the standings, should he continue his current form.
In fact, it was a really solid race for Ducati all told. Miller joined Zarco on the podium, racking up his third for the season so far, while Luca Marini bagged his best finish of the season in fifth. Jorge Martin and Fabio DiGiannantonio both made it into the top eight, meaning the Italian manufacturer took more than 60% of the top eight positions in the Sachsenring showdown despite it being considered a historical bogey track for them.
Comparatively, there are plenty of people who will rue the German grand prix as a missed opportunity or a tough race overall. Both Maverick Vinales and Alex Marquez were forced to retire from the race with issues from their rear ride height devices, while Pol Espargaro’s injuries suffered earlier in the weekend left him without the strength to finish the physically demanding, 30-lap encounter. Joan Mir crashed out to make it another 0-point weekend for Suzuki, and Brad Binder was the sole KTM representative in the top eight.
I’d like to highlight the result for Honda here in particular. Famously one of the most dominant manufacturers in the history of the sport, the Honda brand failed to score a single point this weekend in Germany, with three DNFs and a lonely 16th for Marc Marquez’ substitute Stefan Bradl. Twitter was kind enough to provide me with the statistic on the last time Honda failed to score a single point in a premier class race: the French grand prix of 1982, in which a number of riders boycotted the race due to concerns over the conditions of the circuit. For the last time Honda had riders start the race but fail to score, you have to go back further to Anderstorp in 1981.
I’ve spoken for years on this blog about the rut Honda are in at present, with a bike that doesn’t work for most of its riders and a King of the sport cut down by injuries, but this feels like the biggest signal that all is not well in their camp that we’ve had to date. A run of 14,637 days between the 1982 French race and Sunday’s washout in Germany has come to an end, and in a way it almost felt inevitable that it would at some point. Sure, it’s an impressive record in itself, but the fact that it ended so unceremoniously speaks volumes to just how bad a position the Japanese manufacturer is in. If they can’t fix both their bike and their rider lineup, they could be in for quite a barren run of form for both the remainder of this season and future championships to come.
With Sachsenring done, we now turn our sights to the infamous TT Assen in a week’s time, before MotoGP takes a well earned Summer break (Winter for us Aussies, but I’m pandering to my European audience here). This year’s championship has taught us all the importance of momentum in a sport like MotoGP, and currently all the momentum lies with one man. If last year’s Dutch race is anything to go by, then he could have quite a hefty lead heading into the holiday season indeed.
Solomon Talks Bikes 