If there’s been a single talking point that has dominated the airwaves this season, it’s been consistency, or rather the lack thereof. MotoGP has entered an era of hyper-competitiveness that sees six strong manufacturers fielding full teams of riders that could feasibly fight it our for a podium on any given weekend. The gap between the factories and their satellite squads has also shrunk, so the field has never been closer than it is at present. You can win one week and be tenth best the next, and that would be completely normal.
Because of this, rolling into the Sachsenring circuit in Germany feels particularly odd when you consider the history of this track. Marc Marquez has won at the Sachsenring the last eleven times he contested, taking the eight most recent MotoGP victories available plus three in the lower classes. Honda has a similarly dominant record here; even before Marc started for them in 2013, Dani Pedrosa took a streak of three wins from 2010 to 2012. This kind of consistent victory streak is a rare thing to see in MotoGP, and especially in this modern era of competition.
The unfortunate news is that Marc won’t even be attempting to repeat his previous feats here this weekend. The 8-times champion has recently undergone surgery for the fourth time on his injured arm, ruling him out for several months and possibly taking his rehabilitation period all the way to the end of this season. It’s the right call for a rider who has lost his previously unstoppable competitive edge but now cannot manage a podium finish, and the whole community wishes him the best in his recovery, but it leaves us in a peculiar position for this year’s German race. One way or another, a new king of the ring will be crowned come Sunday.
Think about the implications of this for a moment. We currently have a MotoGP grid where every single rider has taken a grand prix victory in the past, and a total of fourteen riders have won in the premier class, thirteen if you remove the absent Marquez. For there to be a track on the modern calendar that none of the competitors have won at before is absurd, especially one with the history that the Sachsenring carries with it. This kind of opportunity doesn’t present itself very often, and it’s going to be genuinely difficult to predict who will come out on top this weekend.
One of the main reasons for this is the layout of the track itself. Sachsenring is an anti-clockwise circuit, with more left handed turns than right, something that only occurs on one other track in the current calendar. This presents an unusual conundrum for the riders – after months of prioritising one side of their tires when it comes to conservation and braking, they will now have to pivot and trust the other side of their bike more. The only other track that operates this way is Austin, and though there could be some similarities found between the two tracks it’s hardly a shared experience.
The main difference between Austin and Germany is the nature of the track. The American track is very stop-start, forcing the riders to take very physical lines and trust their bodies as much as the bikes themselves. Sachsenring, in contrast, is winding and flowing, with lots of elevation changes to create drama without being as tough as the Portimao rollercoaster. Austin is a track designed to be a spectacle for the fans in its intensity. Sachsenring is a track built for motorcycle riders to enjoy.
The counter-clockwise nature of these tracks is likely part of what makes Marc so dominant at them. Marc is a rider who knows how to push a motorcycle to the limit, potentially even further so than his competitors. While using the other side of your tire isn’t as much of a difference to a racing experience as, say, changing weather conditions, it’s still a curve ball that riders have to adapt to over the course of the race weekend. Marc simply knows how to master these things better than other riders.
Knowing this, we can get a hint as to who may be strong this weekend. Those who have shown the ability to ride under trickier conditions this year and those who are proven risk takers should be able to find some additional strength here. Additionally, since the German track has a huge run of flowing corners that follow the same direction, bikes that are stronger in cornering and turning should benefit more than the more horsepower-focused machines, since the long straights on this track aren’t always long enough make slipstreaming a viable tactic.
With this in mind, I’d say the first three riders to consider for this weekend would be the top three performers of the European leg, that being Fabio Quartararo, Aleix Espargaro and Pecco Bagnaia. Quartararo and Aleix are one and two in the championship for good reason, both of them able to find the absolute limit of their current motorbikes and playing to their strengths to find consistency. Quartararo in particular will be buoyed by recent results, with 45 points from the last two races at circuits that he theoretically should have struggled at. Add in Bagnaia, a rider who is clearly at the peak of the competition but simply cannot catch a break at present, and you have the defacto top picks for any race at this stage in the championship.
I would also expect both Suzuki and KTM to make a step forward here. The Suzuki riders have been punished recently by a lack of consistency, partly due to the looming shadow of their manufacturer’s departure from the sport and partly due to the bike itself not making progress since the start of the season. Mir in particular has had issues with the bike since essentially day one, but a fourth place last time out will help imbue some confidence. As for teammate Rins, his recent injury at Catalunya may hold him back somewhat, but he’s a stronger character now than we’ve ever seen him be in his MotoGP career, and I fully expect him to put his head down and score a decent result here.
As for KTM, they’ve shown something of a proficiency in tricky conditions in recent years, with multiple wins and podiums scored in wet weather races and Binder surviving the desert of Qatar better than most in March. They’re due a good result, too – neither of the factory riders have graced the podium since Mandalika, making it a barren run of seven races. I would argue all KTM riders are now a touch too far from being in championship contention, but it would still be nice to see them take a positive step heading into the mid-season break. It would also give hope to the rookie riders in the Tech3 team, both of whom have been looking seriously frustrated of late.
The thing is, there’s no clear successor to Marc’s throne here in the Sachsenring, and that’s partly because of the current nature of the class. Gone are the days of Marquez, Rossi and Lorenzo piling up wins wherever they went. This is a new age of the sport, with new heroes and heightened levels of competition, and we should be on for nothing short of a spectacle come Sunday’s race. Hopefully Marc can bring himself to watch it, because he’ll have a rival to dethrone when we return next year.
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