In the first instance of back-to-back race weekends in the 2022 season, we move from South America to North America for the fourth round of the MotoGP championship. The American grand prix has been held at a number of different tracks over the long history of the sport, thanks in no small part due to the massive number of world champions born in the USA, but for the last ten years the Circuit of the Americas in Texas has played host. This will only be the ninth running of the race at this unique track, however, since the race in 2020 was cancelled due to covid-19.
What makes the track unique? Well, the design of COTA takes inspiration from a number of famous racing circuits across the globe, with some corners and sectors copied entirely from the likes of Silverstone and Hockenheim. While that sounds fascinating on paper, the reality is that it makes for quite a challenging experience for riders and teams. Since every sector is wildly different to the others, it challenges the riders to change their style as they go through every lap. As if that wasn’t already enough, the track is one of the few anti-clockwise layouts in the entire MotoGP calendar, meaning riders will be prioritising the left-hand side of their tires, something they very rarely have to do.
For those who are long-term viewers of the sport, hearing the phrase “anti-clockwise” will bring one rider to the forefront of your minds, and you are correct to do so. Marc Marquez is the king of left-handed circuits, and COTA is no exception to that rule. Taking the inaugural win back in 2013, the Spaniard has gone on to win all but one of the MotoGP races held here, with the exception to the rule being 2019 in which he crashed out of a healthy 3-second lead. His qualifying record is equally impressive, haven taken pole every visit barring 2021. There’s just something about the way Marc rides here that always seems to put him on another level compared to his opponents.
Personally, my theory for how Marc is able to perform so well here boils down to the way he handles wet weather races. It has often been said that low-grip conditions such as wet races are when the cream rises to the top in MotoGP, and in these scenarios Marc always seems to be able to outperform other riders, or at least take a well-earned podium. His skill lies in his ability to push the bike to limits that others cannot, riding on the edge of crashing and taking calculated risks the whole time. I believe counter-clockwise circuits provide a similar opportunity to him – since everyone is so uncomfortable with the layout, it allows a rider with the skills Marc has to take tenths of a second out of his rivals in every sector.
Comfort will be a key factor for the 8-times champion this weekend, as he returns to racing for the first time since Sunday morning in Mandalika. Marc’s heavy crash in morning warm up that weekend led to yet another bout of double vision, something he’s been dealing with since he was a Moto2 rider, and he was ruled out of both the Indonesian and Argentine grand prix as a result. Despite the setbacks, Marc appears to be fit to race for this weekend, and that will immediately put him at the very top of people’s betting orders. There’s just no way to bet against the man in circumstances like this; despite his injuries, his winning record at COTA speaks for itself, and the expectation will be for him to rack up an eighth win at this circuit.
Based on the last few weekends, one would imagine the only thing standing in his way at this point is the motorcycle underneath him. The Honda factory came into this season looking like big contenders for the championship, having looked fast in pre-season testing and showing confidence in both Repsol riders. That challenge hasn’t really seemed to materialise of late, with Pol Espargaro taking the only podium for the manufacturer in three attempts and Alex Marquez and Takaaki Nakagami struggling to score regular points. It’s difficult to pinpoint where the issues lie for Honda, especially considering how strange and difficult the opening rounds have been for everyone in the class, but hopefully they will be able to provide a competitive base setup for Marc so he can have a shot at another famous victory here.
If Honda are struggling, then an opportunity for an upset will be presented to their rivals, and there are certainly a few people who could jump on that. Suzuki have looked fast here in previous seasons and have the only non-Marquez win at COTA under their belts thanks to Alex Rins back in 2019. Additionally, their one difficulty here in the past has been a lack of horsepower, something which they appear to have solved with their most recent engine upgrade. Both Rins and Mir will be looking to take big points this weekend to continue their early championship contention, with both riders having taken strong points finishes at all three races so far this season.
Ducati will also be looking to pick up the slack here. Early championship leader Enea Bastianini has slipped to third in the standings after a relatively quiet outing in Argentina, and though Jorge Martin looked incredibly impressive taking second place last weekend those 20 points were his first all season. We headed into this season thinking that Ducati might have problems with too many championship contenders on their hands, but instead we’ve witnessed an opening three rounds in which no more than one or two of their riders have placed near the top at any point. Martin and Bagnaia in particular need to find some consistent form soon, and will be eyeing off the American race as an opportunity to bag some serious points given their success here last season. There is also the looming prospect of silly season – only Bagnaia has a seat confirmed for 2023 in the Ducati garages – so all of their riders will be looking to impress early in this season to lock their futures down with the Italian factory.
One other rider I would be keeping an eye on is Brad Binder. The South African sits second in the championship with only a single podium to his name, but he has arguably been held back from better results in both Mandalika and Argentina. A technical issue with his rear ride height device made the Indonesian race far more difficult than it should have been, meaning he likely could have taken a much higher finish there, and some unexpected trouble in qualifying at Termas de Rio Hondo meant that he had more of a fight though the pack than was deserved given his pace. If anyone in the MotoGP grid is looking like they have championship-winning form right now, it’s the KTM rider, and he will be looking to cement himself early on with another podium finish this weekend. Thanks to the return of the king, however, he may have to settle for a second place or below.
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