In the time that I’ve been watching MotoGP, I’ve seen a number of strange events occur during race weekends. I remember the Silverstone race in 2018 that was cancelled thanks to the heavy rains that fell and the lack of drainage to clear the track surface. I remember the many years for which the Assen race was held on a Saturday, with the entire race weekend being shuffled forward by a day to compensate. I remember the Australian Grand Prix in 2019, where gale-force winds during qualifying caused the session to be moved to the Sunday morning before the race. And yet, despite witnessing all of this, I still find myself completely flabbergasted by the events unfolding in Argentina as we head into the third round of the MotoGP season.
For those who are unaware, MotoGP teams have the hardest time of it during the flyaway rounds at the start and end of a season. During the European stage of the championship they are able to transport all of their bikes and equipment from track to track using trucks and vans, which makes it a very comfortable and easy experience for everyone involved. That simply doesn’t apply for the Asian and American rounds, however; since the circuits are so far away from one another, and often only weeks apart in terms of scheduling, teams are forced to use freighter planes to transport their gear from one location to the next. It’s a costly exercise, particularly since we’ve spent so long in Europe over the past two seasons, and requires a lot of things to go right.
Things have not gone right this week. One such plane has been marooned in Mombasa, Kenya for several days thanks to technical issues and has yet to take off at the time of writing this article. This means that several teams who are supposed to be competing this weekend have yet to receive their bikes and equipment with which they should be racing. It’s a nightmare logistically, as the later and later the plane departs the more issues it will cause for the teams that haven’t got their machinery yet. As it currently stands, it appears we will be having a much condensed weekend, with the normal 3-day schedule being compressed into 2 days to account for the issue. Should the plane take even longer to arrive, and the race could be pushed back to Monday, or simply not happen at all.
While a number of teams in the support classes have been impacted by this, there’s also two MotoGP teams missing large quantities of their gear as a result. Both the Gresini and VR46 teams are supposedly missing at least one bike and some amount of tech thanks to the freighter delays, and will have a somewhat rushed job to get things ready for the manic Saturday of practice and qualifying sessions. Remember, the last race we had was in soaking wet conditions, so these bikes will need a fairly thorough clean in order to be functional for the weekend, and if the plane arrives late on Friday evening it could be a rather long night for the technicians and teams impacted.
As if all of this wasn’t enough, we will also be down two MotoGP riders for this weekend. Marc Marquez has been confirmed absent from the proceedings in Argentina thanks to a relapse in his diplopia, a double vision issue he’s been dealing with since an awful crash back in 2011. Takaaki Nakagami is also out of the running, having recently tested positive for Covid-19. Both men will be hoping to make a return in a week’s time for the race in Texas – assuming everyone’s bikes make it their safely and on time – but for the time being, Marc will be replaced by Honda test rider and stalwart Stefan Bradl, and the LCR team will be down a man for the Argentine race.
All this to talk about, and I still haven’t gotten to the circuit itself. The Termas de Rio Hondo circuit is one that MotoGP has been visiting since 2013, making this year the seventh race held at this particular location. It’s quite an unusual setup for a number of reasons, but mainly due to the usage the circuit receives when MotoGP isn’t in town. Since there isn’t a huge amount of demand for such a racing circuit in Argentina, the track sees very little action outside of the annual visit from MotoGP, and as a result the track conditions can often be rather difficult. Dirt and dust naturally build up on the surface of the track thanks to the large amounts of time between usage, making it a tough round for unfamiliar riders.
And there will be plenty of unfamiliar riders. Since we haven’t raced in Argentina since 2019, there’s three whole batches of rookies in the premier class that have never ridden this circuit on a MotoGP bike. The VR46 team didn’t exist in the class in 2019, so there’s a whole lot of engineers and crew members that will have some learning to do. Even looking at the lower classes makes for some hilarious reading: of the 30-strong Moto3 grid, only 7 of them have prior experience of any kind at the Termas de Rio Hondo track. It’s going to be a trial by fire for each and every one of them.
Normally in a scenario like this it would make sense to look back to previous seasons in order to predict the results of the weekend, but they’re unlikely to help in this instance. All six MotoGP manufacturers have evolved their bikes drastically over the past three years, and few even resemble the bikes they had back in 2019 when we last raced here. Both Honda and Aprilia have had complete overhauls to their designs, and Suzuki have a totally new engine to contend with. The only manufacturers who can really bank on past experiences are Ducati and Yamaha, since their machines have at least remained somewhat the same throughout, but even then there is the added factors of new technologies that didn’t exist back in 2019. We now live in the era of ride height and holeshot devices, whereas 2019 was the age of aerodynamics packages.
If we were to look at the list of past winners, however, there would be some clear takeaways. Only two manufacturers have ever won at this circuit, Honda and Yamaha, and Marc Marquez has won three of the six races contested here. Both Yamaha riders who have won here no longer ride for the Japanese company, and two of the four previous winners have since retired. If you take a step back and look at the podium finishers, things get a bit more diverse, but it remains fairly well populated by Honda and Yamaha riders. So, can we say that these two are the favourites heading into this weekend?
It might not be that simple. The MotoGP class has gotten increasingly close in competitiveness over the last five years, and we now live in an age where all six manufacturers could feasibly win a race or contest for a podium given the right circumstances. Long gone are the days of factory Honda and Yamaha riders making up at least two spots in every podium finish – nowadays, it’s common to see completely different sets of faces in two consecutive podiums. The margins on which a race is decided are narrower than they’ve ever been before, and the depth of talent in the class is absurd. This all points to it being a very hotly contested weekend in Argentina.
If I had to call the favourites right now, I would be looking to the factory KTM team. After a fairly anonymous pre-season, the Austrian team have had a dream opening two races and currently lead the team’s championship. Both riders have a podium to their name and are deep in the mix for early championship contention, and the bike has shown a history of performing well in low-grip situations. If the track conditions are poor, which I would expect them to be, then the KTMs may be able to find time where other teams are struggling. If they can manage that, then we could easily see either or both of their riders standing on the podium come Sunday afternoon.
The other rider that jumps out immediately is Quartararo. The Frenchman bounced back beautifully from a horrid opening night in Qatar to take a podium in the wet in Mandalika, made all the more impressive given his poor record of wet weather races in the past. The reigning champion will have taken a boost of confidence from such a result, and another strong result here could set him up well for the all-important European leg of the championship. Additionally, Yamaha are one of the most successful manufacturers at this circuit, so there will be a good bed of data for him to work from heading into the packed Saturday schedule.
Once we look past these riders, however, things become much more difficult to predict. The Ducatis could have a strong weekend, and they have a multitude of talented riders who could perform here. Then there’s the remnants of the Honda factory, from which I would argue Pol Espargaro has the best chance of making something happen on Sunday. The Suzukis and Aprilias could turn up a surprise, the satellite Yamahas could be a factor… There’s simply too many talented riders and too many factors at play to say anything with certainty. All I will say is that come Sunday – if we actually have a race – it should be an absolute blockbuster.
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