MotoGP’s long-awaited return to Indonesia was about as dramatic as one could hope. The weather played a huge role in the outcome of the weekend, and there is rarely a case in which rain leads to boring motorbike racing. Wet conditions lead to riders pushing the very limits of what is possible, and drying conditions test the nerves of those who are willing to gamble with slick setups. Across free practice, qualifying and the race day itself, we saw all kinds of curve balls being thrown at the riders and teams, leading to one of the most unpredictable race results we’ve had in quite a while.
In a fascinating way, the rain may have actually hidden some of the shortcomings of the Mandalika track. The circuit was resurfaced in some areas between the conclusion of the pre-season test held there and the race weekend, but the timing of it meant that there simply wasn’t enough time for the track to set properly. Areas of the surface were reported to be ‘lifting’, and the riders struggled to find consistent grip all throughout the weekend. Additionally, the issues of dirt and dust forming on the track appear to remain unsolved, likely due to the constant renovations happening in and around the circuit itself. By having several sessions held in the wet, riders were able to use their rain tires to full effect and push themselves in a more comfortable manner.
Still, things weren’t exactly ideal, and that became fully clear to us on Friday afternoon. FP2 was the first – and only, as it would later turn out – dry practice session for the MotoGP class, which put an immense amount of pressure on the riders and teams to find their ideal setup and put in some fast lap times. Since it seemed likely that FP3 would be rained out on Saturday morning, it became imperative that riders lock in a position within the top 10 on Friday to ensure a spot in the all-important Q2 session. The shootout that followed was intense, and while several names impressed to get themselves up the order, there were a number of big names way down the order. Bagnaia, Mir, the Repsol Honda teammates of Pol Espargaro and Marc Marquez – these were the riders who would be doing battle in the more dangerous Q1 session.
How did the Hondas and Suzukis end up so far off the pace when they were the top dogs of the pre-season test here? The answer lies in the tire allocation for the weekend. The soft tire option that was used for the test was perfect for the easy-handling Suzukis and the brand new Honda, but when it came time to face a full race weekend there were concerns that it would be too dangerous an option given the anticipated heat and track conditions. Simply warning teams of the risks of using such a tire under harsh conditions isn’t enough from a safety standpoint; regardless of the danger involved, riders will still attempt to use the softest tires available if they’re hunting a fast lap time in practice or qualifying. The solution that Michelin came up with was to remove the option of the original soft tire and provide teams with a harder tire allocation overall.
This minor tweak was punishing for those who entered as favourites. Pol Espargaro was on many people’s watchlists as a candidate to win the inaugural Mandalika race, but he lacked pace throughout the weekend and failed to replicate his one-lap pace he had during the test. Joan Mir didn’t fare much better, with the 2020 champion struggling to find any setup that worked for him and going so far as to claim that it would be unlikely for him to finish the race come Sunday. Marc Marquez was the worst of the bunch, with the eight-time champion crashing out four times over the course of the weekend as he struggled to find the limit of the Honda without binning it in the process. The fourth and final crash came in the morning warmup on Sunday, and was one of the worst highsides I can remember in my time watching the sport. Marc was ruled out of the race thanks to a concussion he sustained in the impact, and the grid was reduced to 23.
As if all of this wasn’t enough, the heavens opened up at the conclusion of the Moto2 race and absolutely bucketed down on the circuit. The rain was so heavy that the MotoGP race had to be delayed by over an hour, as safety cars drifted through the massive bodies of water forming around the track and fans huddled up in ponchos and jackets. Rain is rarely something that will halt proceedings on its own, but in this case it was simply to heavy and consistent to proceed. By the time we were able to get back underway we had witnessed dancing in the stadium section, a shaman warding off the weather, a pit-lane performance by a marching band and a number of riders catching up and having a laugh with one another.
Rain is the ultimate equaliser in MotoGP. With the conditions far more difficult than they would normally be, riders are forced to rely on gut feeling and natural talent far more than they would under normal circumstances, which means the cream almost always rises to the top. There are riders who can always be relied upon to put together a strong result in these conditions because they know the limits of their bike better than their opponents, but it can still be anyone’s guess as to how the dice will fall once things get underway. By the time the race actually got underway the rain itself had stopped, but the clouds overhead kept the atmosphere gloomy and the standing water on track meant that there would be plenty of spray obscuring rider’s vision. If you wanted to win, you would need to get to the front quickly and avoid the melee that was assured to follow.
Poleman and reigning champion Quartararo got away quickest, but was quickly hunted down by Miller and Oliveira. Miller is a rider who is known for his potential in wet conditions, and the KTM has something of a track record for strong results in mixed weather, so it wasn’t exactly a huge surprise to see them both jostling for position at the front. Miller set the early pace, but Oliveira simply sat behind the Australian and watched for where the optimal lines were, before taking the lead and putting his head down. He didn’t need to push himself to the absolute limit, and chose instead to push to around a 3-second lead and then manage things from the front. It was a masterful performance from the KTM man, and a deserved win all round.
Further back, the contest for the remaining podium positions came down to Miller, Zarco, and a late-charging Quartararo who lost several positions in the early stages but found his rhythm late on. The Frenchman was one of the biggest surprises of the weekend, having been miles off the pace all weekend in Qatar and worrying many people on the sidelines as to whether or not he would be able to properly fight for his crown again in 2022. He also doesn’t have the greatest track record in wet conditions, though he was able to previously take a podium in Le Mans in an infamous flag-to-flag race. Despite all of this, Quartararo looked to be in great shape for the entire second half of the race, battling back through the order and even applying some pressure to Oliveira late on, though the Portugese rider simply upped his pace slightly to reinforce his lead.
Zarco’s third place finish marks his first podium since Catalunya last year, which is arguably far too long ago given the talent he possesses. The Frenchman held of Miller in the latter stages to finish as the top Ducati of the weekend, a result that will come as a great relief for Zarco and his team. Despite having two world titles to his name, Zarco’s seat is considered to be rather hot property at the moment as Ducati look to reshuffle their talent pool for 2023 and beyond. It cannot be understated how important results like this will be for Zarco to state his case when attempting to hang on to his seat within the Pramac team. Given the results of his GP22 counterparts – Martin ending his race in the gravel trap, Marini and Bagnaia struggling to even score points – there will be plenty of strong positives to take away from this weekend for Zarco.
The Binder brothers also stood out to me as riders who had a phenomal race in Indonesia. Brad’s race got off to a poor start as the KTM rider had his ride-height device lock itself into place, drastically reducing the control he would have had over the bike itself. Despite falling down the order early on thanks to this complication, he was able to fight back up to 8th position, which is a massive result given the circumstances and keeps him well within the early title hunt. His younger brother Darryn was one of the stars of the race, with the rookie RNF rider taking an amazing 10th place. Not only did he take such a result in his first wet race on board a MotoGP bike, but he did it while actively battling with a slew of riders in the mid pack. The wet conditions allowed Darryn to trust his natural instincts far more than he would have under normal circumstances, and I think he might have blown a few people away with just how quickly and easily he was able to adapt to the weather and the bike underneath him.
So, we find ourselves two races down and no closer to deciphering who is in the driver’s seat for this year’s championship. The top nine riders currently find themselves split by just ten points, meaning it’s essentially a wide open field heading into Argentina. I really don’t think this championship is going to be decided by who leads the pack heading into Jerez and the European rounds, but rather who will have survived the best and picked up some valuable points along the way. For the likes of Brad Binder, Oliveira and Quartararo, mission accomplished. For Marc Marquez, Bagnaia and Martin, they will be hoping for a reversal of fortunes in two week’s time.
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