It’s almost time to get racing again. The 2022 pre-season is complete, and the riders and teams now join the fans in nervously anticipating the start of the new season in March. With only a week to go before FP1 starts in Qatar, it’s time to look back at what we learnt from the tests that took place in order to predict how the year is going to kick off.
Once again, however, I feel obliged to put a foreword on this article as I do with all articles pertaining to testing results. Test times do not tell a full story, and therefore cannot be relied upon as hard evidence of who is strong and who isn’t. Riders and teams have a lot of work to do in the pre-season: the core parts of the bike such as the engine have to be locked in before the first round, and what parts they may be deciding between have to be whittled down to a solid starting base that can then be tweaked and developed over the course of the season. These are precious hours of track time, and the priority is the technical side of things, not the competitive.
That’s not to say that riders don’t go chasing fast times during these tests. Many riders will do just that at the conclusion of a given test, and it can be especially important for teams or manufacturers that have struggled with one lap pace in the past. What I’m trying to make clear here is that when looking at the times that come from testing, you have to look past the standings and rankings to see where the actual results lie. Context is key here, and knowing what a manufacturer was looking to improve heading into the pre-season can help identify what was achieved during the tests.
Yamaha’s Woes
As a starting example, we need only look at Yamaha. At the conclusion of the 2021 season, newly crowned champion Fabio Quartararo made it clear that the area his bike was lacking in was top speed. His immaculate qualifying record from the start of the season had faded as the Ducati riders began storming the front rows of the grid, and the Frenchman wanted an upgrade to better contest them in both qualifying and race trim.
If Quartararo had concerns then, they would be even greater now having completed the tests in Sepang and Mandalika. The 2022 Yamaha is still missing top speed against its rivals, and Fabio has even complained that the bike isn’t drastically different from the previous model. Since we had an engine freeze for the past two years thanks to Covid, this should have been a big opportunity to overhaul the bike and deliver what the riders needed to compete, and Yamaha appear to have struggled to produce what was desired.
The testing times reflect this problem. Of the four Yamaha riders, Quartararo was the only one able to consistently find himself in the top 10 at both tests, and seemed to be losing time to several other manufacturers. The bike simply isn’t up to the standard being set by their competition, and Quartararo remains obviously unhappy at the lack of changes or improvements, particularly since he made his opinions so clear on the matter last year. It certainly seems like a dire position that the Japanese factory finds itself in.
Betting on the Frenchman
There’s an argument that they should have taken Quartararo’s concerns more seriously given their current rider line-up. Of the four Yamaha riders this year, at least two will be starting the season with fairly major hindrances. Franco Morbidelli is still recovering from his injuries from last year, meaning he is more fragile than he would like to be. Darryn Binder is entering the class as a rookie, and the only one of this year’s batch coming directly from Moto3. Even Andrea Dovizioso’s situation is not ideal, the Italian still coming back to grips with a MotoGP bike after being absent for the first half of 2021. Quartararo stands out amongst them as the only one with a realistic shot at the title this year.
With that in mind, it probably wouldn’t have hurt Yamaha to build a bike specifically to suit Quartararo. We’ve seen this process backfire in the past for the likes of Honda and Marc Marquez, but the problem then was that Honda were hindering what was already quite a strong line-up of riders. With Quartararo on a bike that was specifically made for him to challenge the Ducati powerhouse, they may have had a better chance for this season while they prepare both their team compositions and overall bike design for 2023.
All told, it seems like Yamaha have taken a step backwards from the beginning of last year to now. After such a dominant start to the 2021 season, they look set to start this year’s championship on the back foot, which is a terrible shame given how well Quartararo performed in his title winning campaign last year. They shouldn’t be ruled out of this season entirely, of course – the base set-up of the bike should still allow Fabio to contest in the early stages of the season – but if they fail to properly develop the bike as the year goes on, they are at risk of losing their star rider to another factory for next year.
A Honda Revolution
I mentioned that Honda have previously had problems with designing a bike that only one of their riders could master. Moving away from this strategy was the main goal for them in 2022 development, with the plan to essentially redesign the bike from the base up in order to make something that a four of their riders could contest for strong results with. The logic here is sound: Marc Marquez is a strong enough talent on his own that he should be able to perform on any bike they give him, and making it more user friendly helps give them more opportunities to score points. It also likely stems from the 2020 season, where Marc was absent due to injury and Honda had one of their worst seasons on record.
The new bike is a big hit amongst the riders, and a big concern for their opponents. The 2022 model is everything that the other Honda riders have been clamouring for. The front end is sleeker, giving more control over the rear and allowing for more braking styles to be applied. All four riders were extremely complimentary of Honda for the work they’ve put into developing this model, though Marc admitted he will likely take a little more time than his stable-mates to come to grips with this new machine.
With strong performances from all their riders at both tests, Honda will enter the season with a lot of confidence. Both Marc and Pol Espargaro look like they could be genuine title threats this year on board the factory Honda’s, and Alex Marquez could definitely challenge for podiums on the satellite machine. Nakagami remains the most puzzling of the four as he never really shone in the timing screens during pre-season, but we know he can put a Honda on pole when the stars align for him. He also finds himself in the hot seat with contract season coming up, as the Honda seats have become far more desirable and his position within the manufacturer appears the weakest. There’s a number of strong Japanese riders coming up through the lower classes, including Moto2 contender Ai Ogura, and Nakagami’s Idemitsu backed seat will be looking tantalising to many of them.
Ducati out in front
Given the conclusion of the 2021 season, everyone’s predicted favourite for this year was always going to be Ducati. Their sheer success in qualifying meant that they were starting every race with a slew of riders in the front group, and with their horsepower advantage over the rest of the grid it became a complicated task to even get ahead of a GP21 rider. Now we face the possibility of two different Ducati makes both contesting at the front of the grid: last year’s GP21 model and the new and improved GP22.
The GP22 looks extremely promising in testing conditions, with all five riders feeling comfortable relatively quickly on the upgraded machine. It’s fast, potentially faster than its predecessor, and has some smaller changes to the aero package that should help bring more downforce. All of the riders on the factory spec bike appeared to be brimming with confidence by the conclusion of the second test, with Jack Miller being the only one who failed to make a real impact at the top end of the timesheets. Miller seemed unfazed by the results side of things, however, describing the experience on the new Ducati as being akin to trying on a new pair of shoes. He just needs some time to get comfortable.
In this regard, it might even be a benefit to the riders starting the season on a GP21. The factory bike is a strong contender and will likely evolve to even higher levels as the year goes on, but the riders starting the season on last year’s bike will do so knowing they have a strong race contender underneath them from the get go. This will likely benefit Enea Bastianini the most, as the other two riders on the older model are rookies. The advantage won’t last for the full length of the season, but I definitely expect Bastianini to come out of the gates exceptionally strong on his Gresini satellite bike.
Suzuki bouncing back
It’s no secret that 2021 was a disappointing season for Suzuki. After looking so unbelievably strong in the back half of 2020, taking the world championship with Joan Mir and nearly managing the triple crown, most people were expecting them to be regular contenders at the front of each race. What happened instead was far from it: despite finishing third in the championship, Mir only managed six podiums in eighteen attempts and failed to take a race win in his title defence. Rins was even further off the mark with his results, only taking a single podium in a season fraught with crashes and lost points. To come from so high to this shocking performance, something major had to have gone wrong.
The problem stemmed from three major issues. Firstly, Davide Brivio stepped down from his position as team manager at the conclusion of the 2020 season in order to move to Formula 1, leaving something of a leadership vacuum that never ended up being filled. The responsibility ended up being split between several members of the team, something which ended up hurting them more than it would have to simply replace Brivio outright. There was also a sense of assuredness within the team that their bike from the previous season was a strong base to begin with, which led to a portion of testing time going towards their 2022 bike instead of maximising the potential of the 2021 model for the coming season.
The last, and perhaps most damning, issue was that they were the last manufacturer to implement a ride height device into their bikes. Ride height devices were the biggest technical innovation last season as they spread from factory to factory, and the amount of time riders were able to save in every corner was visible simply from how much the Suzuki men struggled without it. A prototype was finally brought in for them in the Austrian round, but by that point the damage had already been done. They needed a lot to go right for them in 2022 in order to bounce back from such a humbling season.
The dark horses in blue?
The good news in Suzuki is that their 2022 bike already looks to be far more competitive than the previous iteration. Mir and Rins both posted fantastic lap times over the course of both tests, keeping themselves well within the top ten and putting in plenty of longer runs to confirm their race pace as well. Given that single lap pace has been the bugbear of the Suzuki team since their re-entry to the class, seeing them lapping comfortably alongside the likes of Ducati and Honda should ring alarm bells for their competitors. If a Suzuki can regularly finish on the podium when starting from the middle of the pack, then a Suzuki that can run qualifying pace for the front two rows should theoretically be able to win more races.
Both Mir and Rins will be hugely relieved with this upgrade, and both should be able to launch a proper title challenge with this new bike. Mir will be looking to prove that he can reclaim his title of world champion, and with a bike as strong as this one appears to be underneath him he should be able to finally start winning races again. Rins may even need this bike more, however, given how poorly his 2021 season ended. The Spaniard has been in the class for a while now, and doesn’t have an amazing record to back himself with. Should Suzuki begin looking elsewhere for their 2023 rider line-up – assuming they haven’t already started scouring Moto2 for candidates – Rins will need to seriously step up his game to convince them to retain him.
New look Aprilia, new possibilities
Perhaps the largest unknown heading into the season is the Aprilia factory. Aprilia are another manufacturer who have completely redesigned their bike for 2022, and they had a blistering testing season. Both Maverick Vinales and Aleix Espargaro showed rapid pace in every test they completed, and were putting better results together than they’ve ever managed to do previously. Aleix even briefly took the lap record in the Sepang test, a feat that would have been nothing short of mindblowing given the history of Aprilia in the MotoGP class. This bike is clearly fast, moreso than any other Aprilia that has been entered into the premier class, and both riders are looking both happy and comfortable on board.
On the flip side of things, we’ve been burnt by overconfidence from this factory before. The 2020 preseason looked to be a really solid performance by the Aprilia team, but they ended up performing fairly subpar throughout the entire season and never really delivered on the promises of testing. They are still the only manufacturer on concessions, meaning they are given extra testing opportunities and more technical flexibility throughout the year, and the only reason they’re on that list is their lack of strong results in the class. That said, having concessions may be a huge stroke of luck for them this season as they will be able to upgrade and change their engines over the course of the year.
Could this be the first season we see an Aprilia win a race in MotoGP? There’s a lot of strong reasons to believe in them this time around, but above all else I’ve been really impressed by the attitudes and confidence of both their riders. Aleix Espargaro has been riding for Aprilia for five seasons now, and being the one to finally bring Aprilia a premier class win would be a really special moment for both him and the team. On the other side of the box, Vinales had a difficult 2021 campaign that saw him lose his ride with Yamaha and get scooped up by Aprilia, so proving that he still has what it takes to win would be a massive drive for him. Regardless, this will surely be the best opportunity the team has ever had to bring home some proper silverware.
KTM are struggling
The final factory left is perhaps the most puzzling of the six: Austrian based KTM, who were absolutely nowhere to be seen on the timing sheets in Sepang and Mandalika. Factory duo Miguel Oliveira and Brad Binder were tasked with the heavy lifting when it came to testing new parts, as the satellite team is composed of two rookies for this year, being Remy Gardner and Raul Fernandez. While Binder made a couple of appearances in the top 10, the rest of the riders were often seen way down the order and a fair way off the pace of the fastest riders. If they were looking to scare the competition with their latest bike, they have failed miserably.
It’s a shame to see them struggling so much when they had seemingly just hit their first real vein of good form. 2020 was probably the best season in KTM’s time in MotoGP, with three wins and a slew of podiums coming the way of their riders, and though they had a bit less success in 2021 it still appeared that they were on level terms with the rest of the manufacturers. Their situation may not actually be as dire as it looks from the outside, but it certainly appears as though they will be entering this season as severe underdogs. Whether they can overcome that and post some serious results will come down to the riders themselves.
It’s especially disappointing to see this lag in form given the introduction of their two latest rookies. Both Gardner and Fernandez are incredibly talented riders, and they were absolutely dominant in the Moto2 championship last year. To see them down the bottom of the order in their first season in MotoGP would be a genuine tragedy, and I personally hope that KTM can figure out their troubles in order to give both riders the proper chance they deserve at a strong first season in the premier class.
Test is over, pencils down
So that’s a wrap on testing for 2022. The time for questions is nearly over, with the start of the season visible on the horizon, and soon enough we will be getting all the answers we need. Between all the gossip and drama that has played out during this pre-season, I personally cannot wait for this new year of racing to get underway!
Solomon Talks Bikes 
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