Last time out, I reviewed the ratings I gave to the Ducati and Aprilia riders before the start of the 2021 season. Today, it’s time to cover Honda and KTM, and see which riders I was able to accurately predict and which ones I was a country mile off.
Pol Espargaro – 3.6
“In a fairly informative article posted earlier this year I discussed my belief that Pol Espargaro would be a strong rider on a Honda in 2021, and so far that article is holding firm. Pol has adapted very quickly to his new machinery, and stands a good chance of being a podium contender right out the gates. Whether this form holds firm is something only time will tell, but he should be in for at least a couple of podiums, maybe even more.”
Whoops. I actually forgot just how hyped I was about Pol Espargaro before his Honda debut in 2021. In my defence, he did put together quite an impressive record in the pre-season tests, and his performance on a KTM last season was pretty impressive. That being said, I have stated it over and over again on this blog – you cannot rely on pre-season times as a reference for how a rider’s season will go. Looking more at the external factors should have clued me in that none of the Honda riders were in for a fantastic run of form. Big miss to start this article off.
Marc Marquez – 4.3
“Marc returns to the MotoGP field this year after being absent in 2020 due to injury, and it’s a welcome return at that. Marc is perhaps the best motorcycle racer in the world at present, an eight-times world champ, and though he will miss at least the first two rounds of this seasons he’s still a strong favourite for the title. Anyone who has seen Marc race knows a storm is fast approaching for the rest of the field, and his form will be a great indicator for things to come.”
I’m gonna call this one a win, and here’s why: Marc had a phenomenal season given the context of his injuries. Sure, he didn’t storm back into MotoGP and instantly win a title, but once he started to build back strength and confidence he became a serious threat for race wins. Three wins and a podium is a solid performance for someone in his circumstances, but he clearly proved what he is still capable of, and should he bounce back from his current predicament regarding the training incident at the end of the season he should have a strong 2022.
Takaaki Nakagami – 2.9
“Nakagami had his best season yet in 2020, but podium glory still eludes him. The Idemitsu-backed Honda rider enters his fourth year in the premier class with a lot of pressure to succeed, as he was the best-finishing Honda rider last year, and while his qualifying record towards the end of last year was very impressive, he’ll have to bring more to the table in 2021 if he wants to retain his spot in the premier class.”
This might have been a bit high of a score, and I’m inclined to call it a miss given how miserable some of the Japanese rider’s performances were in 2021. Nakagami had a poor season overall, with a continued lack of silverware in the premier class. Part of this was simply because of the continued problems with the Honda, but the rider has to take partial responsibility when things go this far south. Additionally, there is now a serious threat to Nakagami’s seat in the premier class in the form of Moto2’s Ai Ogura, so time is running out for him to figure out how to master a MotoGP machine.
Alex Marquez – 2.8
“The younger Marquez brother is a rookie no more, and he enters 2021 with Marc’s imminent return looming over him. Two podiums in his first season was an extraordinary result, but now he needs to start working on his consistency issues and get better qualifying results. If he clicks like he did in Aragon last year he may be a threat at the front, but for now I expect him to continue learning and growing in the mid-pack.”
This feels like the fairest rating so far. Alex continued to develop as a rider this year, and though there were some disappointing crashes there was also an improved level of consistency in the second half of the year. He’s not exactly making a name for himself, but he’s improving all the time, and I genuinely think that with the right support from Honda – or a new manufacturer – Alex could really shine in MotoGP.
Brad Binder – 2.5
“Brad’s a MotoGP race winner now, and while that in itself is an impressive feat, that’s about all the good news that came out of his first season in the premier class. Brad’s a competitive rider and a Moto3 champion, so I doubt he’ll settle for living in the mid-pack, but right now I can’t see him impacting the championship much.”
This is a miss, no doubt about it. Brad was one of the most consistent riders in 2021, and despite only taking one visit to the podium in Austria he was still able to take a slew of top 5’s and 8’s throughout the season. He was also the only contender for the title of Sunday man – someone who appears towards the front of the race seemingly regardless of where they qualify – and spent a good chunk of the season as KTM’s only shining light. I don’t think a 2.5 is dramatically off, but he surely deserves more credit than that for his second season in the premier class.
Miguel Oliveira – 3.2
“Now here’s a surprise from 2020. Oliveira steps up to the factory KTM squad with two wins to his name, and looks set to take over as the top dog in the team. His results last year were quietly impressive, and with full factory support he may have his best chance yet at some consistent podiums, but I’m wary of the lackluster pre-season results the KTM factory had. If they can figure out their issues with pace, expect Oliveira to be the biggest benefactor of the improvements.”
There’s a lot to unpack here. Oliveira did have some strong points to his season, including a string of races in the middle of the year where he finished no worse than second, but everything seemed to slip away from him in the second half of the season. I do think he’s got the strength and drive to return to the top end of the sport, but he’s clearly struggling right now. Once again, his score isn’t necessarily crazy, but I think the Portugese man lost his way in the later stages of this season and needs to figure some things out in the off-season.
Danilo Petrucci – 2.1
“Petrucci’s had a good run in his time in the MotoGP, taking two wins during his stint with the factory Ducati squad, but this move to the satellite KTM team is a sign that things may be coming to a close for him in the near future. He remains one of the strongest wet weather riders in the paddock, and a change of paint shouldn’t impact that, but I fear he may struggle to return to the podium in 2021 and beyond.”
Damn it, I predicted a rider’s resignation from MotoGP. Petrucci had a hard task at KTM this year, with the bike not really being up to scratch for the first three or four races, and even when they sorted things out in Mugello it just never looked like the Italian had the pace to put himself in the front again. He spent most of July onwards being soundly beaten by his teammate, and signed off from the sport on the same weekend as on of the greatest MotoGP stars ever seen, so I almost feel bad for how harshly I critiqued him before the start of the year. Nonetheless, this is probably my closest hit so far.
Iker Lecuona – 1.7
“Sorry, Iker. Normally, finishing in the top 10 several times in your rookie season would be an impressive feat, but Lecuona had the misfortune of sharing rookie honours with both Binder and Alex Marquez, and that has clearly put a damper on things. If the KTM can improve somewhat from their position in testing, he may put together some fine results, but the class is looking ultra competitive this year, and some riders just don’t look up to the challenge. My prediction is a few points finishes but nothing exciting for Lecuona.”
I really do feel for Iker Lecuona. In just his second year in MotoGP he found himself in danger of losing his seat to a pair of Moto2 stars, and the pressure clearly got to him at several points. There was clear progress on his part throughout the season, but things just never clicked in terms of consistency. He was a regular points finisher, I’ll give him that, but it was still quite a tough year for the young Spaniard. Hopefully a move to the World Superbike paddock will breathe some fresh air into his career, and we’ll see him back in MotoGP sometime soon. An unfortunate hit for past Solomon, but a hit nonetheless.
Riders reviewed: 16
Hits: 8
Misses: 8
It’s still neck and neck, with some extremely justified takes this week accompanied by some wildly inaccurate assessments. I’m excited to see where we land next week – can I pull ahead and make it a positive review overall, or were my predictions simply not up to par in the leadup to the 2021 campaign?
Solomon Talks Bikes 