After the final pre-season test for 2021, I sat down with a cup of tea and a list of the times and placings from all of the testing sessions in the leadup to the season. After looking over the results and considering each rider’s history, I gave them all scores based on how I expected their seasons to play out. Today, I begin the process of looking back at these rankings and asking the question: How close was I to predicting the outcome of the 2021 season?
As with previous iterations of this idea, each rider was rated on a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being a rider that I didn’t expect to score a single point all year and 5 being a rider I fully expected to win the championship with ease. Since both of these ratings are pretty wild, most riders will naturally fall somewhere in the middle, so a rating of 4 or above is pretty exceptional and a 1 would be pretty devastating. Who did I rate accurately, and who did I miss entirely? Let’s begin!
Lorenzo Savadori – 1.3
“Look, Savadori seems like a good guy, but he seriously didn’t impress me in the final races of 2020. Couple those medium results with a tough pre-season, and it would appear the former Italian Superbike champ looks set to have a difficult rookie season with Aprilia. In fairness, the Aprilia is a wildly inconsistent bike, so perhaps he would be better suited to a different machine, but expect to see Savadori in the back of the pack most races.“
Right off the bat, we have a rider who didn’t even manage to stay on the grid for the whole season. While the Aprilia made some pretty huge improvements this year, his performance was both short lived and unimpressive, and Savadori ended up leaving 2021 with both an injury and a serious lack of points to his name. Did he deserve to be shafted to make room for the incoming Maverick Vinales? Not necessarily, but it sure wasn’t a shock either. This one is an easy hit.
Aleix Espargaro – 2.4
“This one was… tricky, to say the least. Aleix is an experienced MotoGP rider, but he hasn’t had any good results in quite some time, and though he seemed impressive in testing, I just can’t quite believe the Aprilia has grown that much stronger in the off season. Maybe I’ll eat my words here, but I think this is going to be another middling year for the older of the Espargaro brothers.”
To balance out my fairly accurate start, here’s a rider that obliterated my pre-season expectations. Aleix Espargaro has been working on that Aprilia machine for half a decade now, and the results finally came his way in 2021. Stepping onto the podium for just the second time in his MotoGP career in Silverstone, and impressing on a number of other occasions, Espargaro has proven that the bike is finally drawing level with the rest of the paddock. Now we simply have to wait and see if he can keep it up in 2022.
Jack Miller – 4.1
“This one was a surprise to me, but a good one at that. Miller has really come into form of late, with a slew of strong results at the end of 2020 and a great pre-season on his new factory bike. The Ducati seems like it’s stepped up in 2021, and Miller looks set to lead the charge and take on the championship representing the Italian manufacturer. When the wins start coming – and believe me, they will come – Miller may become rather difficult to beat.”
It’s frustrating that Miller was able to come so close to fulfilling this prediction, but I have to say he underperformed in 2021. Two wins on the trot in the first half of the season gave us plenty to hope for, but Miller’s lack of consistency ended up putting him out of championship contention. He wasn’t the leading light in the Ducati team, and he might not even be set on remaining in the factory squad past 2022, so the pressure is really starting to mount on the Australian. That being said, it was his best season in the premier class to date, so I’m going to count this as a hit regardless. Here’s hoping for a more positive review next year.
Francesco Bagnaia – 2.9
“This is another rating that feels almost cruel, but I just can’t bring myself to label Pecco as a championship challenger this year. He had moments of form last year, including a podium in San Marino and a further two podium chances that ended in retirements, but he also struggled at several points to put decent results together. Direct factory support should help, but honestly, I don’t think Bagnaia will influence the title race this year.”
Yeah, yeah, I didn’t see this one coming. Obviously there were going to be some big swings and misses for this year’s rankings, but I am rather cross with myself for lowballing Pecco by such a huge margin. Sure, his previous results weren’t exactly stellar, but anyone who saw his championship winning season in Moto2 would know that once he gets acclimatised to a bike, he can be nigh unstoppable. I’m excited to see how he fares on the newest model of Ducati next season, and graciously accept this as the biggest miss so far.
Johann Zarco – 3.3
“Zarco’s in a good place right now, and he seems to be going from strength to strength. Taking pole position in Brno last year was an important moment in his career, proving he had properly bounced back from his KTM woes, and if he can continue putting together strong results like that he could be in for a good season. That said, he had some low moments of form last year, so maybe I’m overshooting with this one, but I have faith in the experienced Frenchman.”
Yeah, I’m counting this as a win. Had the flag been thrown at the midpoint of the year I would have fallen embarrassingly short, but Zarco struggled to keep his form in the second half of the season and ended up dropping down the order a fair way. Taking a few podiums shored up his spot within Ducati’s ranks, so I expect him to remain there in the future, but my pre-season rating was actually pretty spot-on here.
Jorge Martin – 2.1
“Rating rookies continues to be the bane of my existence, but Martin is a force to be reckoned with and I fully believe he’s got what it takes to make it in MotoGP. He’s a former Moto3 champion, and would have challenged for the Moto2 title last year if he hadn’t been sidelined with COVID-19. With the support that comes with a seat in the Pramac box, I expect good things to come from young Jorge.”
I knew I would eat my words on at least one rookie – it’s basically guaranteed given the level of competitiveness from rookies in recent years – and I’m very glad it was Martin that did so first. I’ve been a fan of Jorge since he won his Moto3 title, and he stepped up to MotoGP with ease and finesse. Four pole positions and a win in your first year of MotoGP is a standout performance, and I humbly accept that I underestimated him quite a bit. It’s kind of funny, actually – if my scoring had reflected the positive tone of the writing, I might have actually gotten closer with him.
Luca Marini – 1.6
“I tossed and turned over this one, because Marini is a good rider and a known campaigner. Rossi’s half brother and VR46 Academy rider, Marini showed some impressive form last year in Moto2, but it really doesn’t seem like he’s adapted to the bigger machinery as well as other rookies have. Maybe this is too harsh a mark, but I would be seriously surprised if Luca ends up being the top rookie of this year.”
This one feels like a hit to me. A single front row start and a couple of Q2 appearances does not make for a massive first season in the premier class, and Marini just never looked competitive on the older Ducati machine. The good news is that he will be getting a factory spec bike for next year, meaning he will have a much better shot at taking some big results. The better news is that I correctly predicted him to be a contestant for the wooden spoon. Apologies, Luca, but hopefully 2022 is more fortuitous.
Enea Bastianini – 2.3
“Bastianini heads into this season as the reigning Moto2 champ, and in my mind he’s the rookie with the best odds of success this season. Sure, pre-season testing isn’t a sure-fire basis for anything much, but he does appear to have some impressive pace for someone new to the class. I’m not saying I expect him to take a podium or anything – although I’m not ruling it out either – but he seems like a talented young rider and my favourite for Rookie of the Year.”
Another case of a glowing review accompanied by a relatively low score. Bastianini had a slower start to his season than Martin, leading me to believe I may have spoken too soon about him, but the back half of the season was incredible for him. Two podiums is one thing, but beating a number of riders on GP21s (effectively two years better than the Ducati he was riding) is something else entirely. Hats off to Enea, and another definitive miss on my part.
Riders reviewed: 8
Hits: 4
Misses: 4
One third of the riders are done, and it’s an even split of hits and misses so far. I think the biggest takeaway so far is that I should seriously stop underscoring rookies and just trust that the good ones will rise to the top. How will the rest of the grid fare? Stay tuned for parts two and three!
Solomon Talks Bikes 