We have finally reached the last stage of the 2021 season. After 15 rounds of racing across three continents, Fabio Quartararo finds himself in a position where he could take the world title this weekend. He has been the picture of calm and consistency this season, taking strong wins when he was favoured and settling for safe podiums when the top step wasn’t within his reach. No other rider has been as consistent as him all year, and it would certainly be a deserved title given the disappointment of his 2020 campaign.
52 points is all that hangs in the balance, and 50 is the magic number for Fabio to seal the deal on the championship. Should he finish this Sunday’s race ahead of Pecco Bagnaia he will have more points in his lead than there are left on the table for his rival, and the title will be his. There are of course a plethora of mathematical scenarios where he could win the title while still finishing behind the Italian, but should he beat Bagnaia to the line that would wrap things up regardless. That will likely be the goal for the championship leader this weekend: beat Bagnaia, take the crown, enjoy two more races with zero pressure on his shoulders.
Beating Bagnaia in San Marino may not be the easiest task, however. The Italian rider finished first here when we visited a month ago for the Misano grand prix, and looked set to win the Emilia Romagna race in 2020 before unfortunately crashing out of a comfortable lead. He has also arguably been the form man of the second half of this season, taking a slew of podiums and pole positions including his first two wins as a MotoGP rider. This consistency is what allowed him to shave down Quartararo’s lead so massively after the summer break, and it’s also the reason he is the only remaining challenger to the Frenchman’s title hopes.
There is another unique factor at play here. While back-to-back races at the same circuit have become something of a regular occurrence over the last two seasons thanks to the global pandemic, this marks the first time we will be revisiting a track after having one or more races in between. In fact, two of the three remaining races in 2021 fall into this category, as the Algarve GP coming up in Portugal will mark the second race at that circuit after we visited in April this year. In this particular instance, thanks to the unusual scheduling required by covid restrictions, we had a race in Misano, shipped out to the US for one round, and have now returned for a second battle at the San Marino circuit.
What this means is that riders will have an entire weekend’s worth of data to rely on this time around, but not necessarily the exact bike setup they left Misano with last time out. They will be able to hit the ground running much quicker than the first race we had here this season, but will still need to take the correct measures and steps to set up their bikes optimally for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday. This should lead to something of a middle ground compared to previous double headers and standard race weekends, where the field will be closer together in times than the last race in Misano but some riders should still be favoured.
With that in mind, Bagnaia could certainly keep the battle going for another round. He was pretty dominant when we were last here, consistently showing up in the top few riders in practice sessions, taking pole position and leading the entire race despite the pressure coming from behind in the form of Quartararo. He is also the in-form man, as I mentioned earlier, and will know that he has to perform here this weekend in order to keep the championship battle alive for another round. Misano also happens to be something of a happy hunting ground for the VR46 academy riders, so that should boost his confidence heading into the race.
He won’t be the only Italian rider hoping to double up in Misano, however. Rookie rider Enea Bastianini had a fantastic race in the Misano GP, taking his first podium on one of the oldest bikes on the grid and showing up multiple riders on factory spec Ducatis. This is a track that Bastianini loves, having taken two podium finishes here in the Moto2 category last year on his way to the championship win, and the performance he produced here a month ago was nothing short of spectacular. If he were to get a better spot on the grid this weekend, he could surely be a contender for another podium, or perhaps even the win.
For veteran Italian rider Valentino Rossi, this weekend marks an emotional farewell to his beloved home circuit as he steps down from MotoGP at the conclusion of this season. Rossi had a pretty poor time of it here a month ago, and his season as a whole has been rather abysmal, but he will still take plenty of hope into this race as he gets to say goodbye to his fans the way he knows best. A good points haul here would help lift him from the bottom end of the championship standings, which would be a great relief to both him and his fans – it would be something of a disappointment to see the Doctor finish his last year in the sport with the wooden spoon.
That’s not to say the Italians should have it all their way, either. Several Spaniards will be looking to right the wrongs of their last visit here, including Marc Marquez and Jorge Martin. In Marc’s case, Misano is actually one of his better tracks from a historical perspective, and while he bagged some solid points when we last visited it certainly wasn’t the podium he would have been hoping for. Marc’s season is essentially over for now, with no obvious tracks left on the calendar for him to steal a win at, so his focus now will likely be on recovering his injury further to boost his chances at a real comeback for 2022. Whether or not the Honda underneath him will be ready when the time comes is another question entirely.
In Martin’s case, Misano 1 was a good opportunity gone begging, as the rookie crashed out in the early stages and was punished to the maximum by Bastianini as a result. Martin has been by far the breakout sensation of the premier class this season; taking a win, three podiums and three pole positions in his first year in the class despite missing a number of weekends due to serious injury. Despite this, his lead in the rookie of the season battle is slim, and the Pramac rider will be hoping to claw back some advantage this weekend before what must be a somewhat dreaded return to Portimao next time out. Defeating Bastianini here will be difficult, but we’ve come to expect great things from the young Spaniard this season.
Then there’s the case of the reigning champion, Joan Mir. It has to be said that 2021 has been something of a disappointment for both Joan and Suzuki as a whole, as their title challenge never really got underway and neither rider has been able to take a win in 15 starts. Misano was actually a strong track for Mir when we came here in 2020, with the Spaniard taking two podiums and putting his name firmly into contention for the world championship. Last time out, however, things didn’t exactly go to plan. Mir didn’t qualify particularly well, fought hard to get close to the podium positions, then found himself demoted one place at the end of the race thanks to a run-in with Australian rider Jack Miller.
It’s a sorry sight that Mir has resorted to such desperate moves just to make up ground in a race, and it really highlights where the Suzuki is at right now on a technical level. Last year’s bike was silky smooth and exceptional in the corners, and by far the most consistent bike every weekend. Comparatively, it seems like the Japanese factory has lost a lot of ground to it’s rivals this year, in part thanks to the development of better rear height adjusters for several other factories, and the team as a whole will likely be hoping to have a more competitive package ready for next season. In the meantime, Mir will simply be hoping to hold onto his third place in the championship standings for the remaining races.
Whether or not the championship is decided this weekend, the field is looking super competitive as we head into these final races of the year, and I think that should bring us some rather exciting battles this weekend and in the weeks to come. And if last year’s races in Misano are anything to go by, you really can’t expect to call it until the chequered flag is thrown. Let’s hope the same is true this time around.
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