After almost two full seasons of the world championship being held nearly exclusively in Europe, we’re finally back in Texas. With the only real exception being the double header in Qatar kicking off the 2021 campaign, COVID-19 has reduced the global event that is MotoGP to a European championship, but here we are. The paddock has made it successfully to the US, the bubble has been formed to keep everyone safe, and we can finally get racing in the infamous Circuit of the Americas.
It’s a funny old circuit we find ourselves at. Designed to be something of an impossible racing experience, it combines some of the most famous turns and sectors of the best tracks in the world in some weird and wonderful combinations. This makes the track long, and physically demanding to boot. To master it, a rider needs to combine speed along the main straights with fast cornering through the first two sectors, and be prepared for some of the hilariously slow corners in the second half.
It’s also a counter-clockwise track, which means a certain Marc Marquez is the King of COTA. The Spaniard has won here six of the seven times we raced here previously, and would have made it seven were it not for an electronics issue he faced in 2019. He has dominated here for many reasons, his physical riding style and preference for left-hand turns being the biggest ones, but there can be no doubt that he enters this weekend as the favourite for the win, or at least the podium.
Will his injury hold him back? It’s unclear, but this track will certainly be a test of his mettle. His previous win this season in Germany was super impressive given his condition, but this track is both longer and harder to ride. Combine that with the fact that the track hasn’t been updated in years and has grown rather bumpy in several places, and it means Marc is going to be fighting the track and himself this weekend almost as much as he will his rivals.
Despite Marc’s dominance, the reigning King of COTA is Alex Rins. The Suzuki rider was there to pick up the pieces when Marc fell in ’19, and held off Valentino Rossi to secure his first win in MotoGP. Rins loves the Texan track almost as much as Marc does, having won here in Moto3 and Moto2 as well, and will certainly be eyeing off a return to the top step this weekend. If anyone can dethrone Marquez and Honda come Sunday, it would seem to be Rins, despite his inconsistent form this year.
Bagnaia and Quartararo’s championship fight should continue to heat up here, too. Yamaha have had some decent success here in the past with a number of podiums to their name, and Miller and Dovizioso both showed some serious pace in the back end of 2019’s race, so both bikes should perform well here. Given the 2021 Ducati model is arguably the best bike on the grid as it stands, and has sewn up a number of the holes in its technical package over the last twelve months, Bagnaia should be able to at least take a few more points out of the championship leader.
The thing is, despite the appearance that Ducati haven’t had the best success here in the past, the numbers are warped by the sheer dominance of Marquez. When a single rider and single bike has won 6 out of the 7 races held here, it reduces the impact that other teams and individuals can make in a race weekend. Many reasonable performances can look unimportant when compared to Marc’s constant winning, so while it would appear when perusing the record books that Ducati might not be favoured here, the truth is they should be on about a level playing field with the rest of the pack.
There’s also the weather to contend with. Forecasts for the weekend show potential for rain on all three days, meaning any number of sessions could be washed out. If it rains on Sunday, combined with the poor condition and bumpy nature of the track, things could get very messy indeed. We’ve only really seen one proper wet race this year – two if you count the Austrian GP, which saw rain impact the final five laps or so – so it would be fascinating to see who ends up on top if the heavens open up on race day.
If the weather doesn’t play along, the list of potential contenders widens. Miller has been fantastic in the wet this season, and the likes of Petrucci and Dovizioso can’t be ruled out despite the machinery they’re on. The Honda riders should benefit too, as the likes of Pol Espargaro and Alex Marquez have had some solid performances under difficult conditions in the past. In all honesty, predicting a winner comes down to whether the sun remains out on Sunday; if it does, then Marc and Rins will surely be favourites, but if the rain hits then it’s anyone’s guess.
On a final note, Maverick Vinales is absent this weekend following the passing of his cousin in the World Superbike weekend at Jerez last weekend. The racing world was thrown in to shock as we lost yet another young rider, the third to pass away in a junior motorcycle racing class in just four months. I will be expressing my feelings on this soon in a full article – it’s difficult to properly word yourself when talking about such a difficult topic – but for now I simply want to give my full condolences to Maverick Vinales and his family.
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