Author’s note: While this post was originally intended to release before the start of the weekend, I decided to delay it by a day to see how Vinales first day on board an Aprilia went. Apologies for the delay!
When we visited Aragon last year, a number of things were different to previous iterations of the grand prix. For one, the weather was vastly colder than past races held here due to the calendar reshuffle caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We also had a double-header at the same circuit, something that was alien to long-time viewers but par for the course in the wild 2020 campaign. We also saw a Suzuki rider on the top step, with Alex Rins storming to his first win of the season ahead of a fast-charging Alex Marquez.
Perhaps the most unusual part, however, was the absence of a certain Marc Marquez. The eight-time champion is something of a stalwart at the circuit of Aragon, having won there in the MotoGP class five times in the past, including a four-year run between 2016 and 2019. This was perhaps one of the saddest parts of his lengthy absence of injury: since he was unable to race at Aragon last year, his winning streak came to an end without a chance for him to defend it. In this way it was almost lucky that we didn’t race in Germany last year, as it allowed us to see what Marc was really capable of at a track he knows and loves during his comeback season of 2021.
What is it about tracks like Aragon and Sachsenring that makes Marc so difficult to beat? The answer, for once, is actually fairly simple: both tracks are anti-clockwise, favouring left-hand turns over right hand ones. Marquez has always favoured his left hand side as a way to create advantage where there wouldn’t normally be one, as it allows him to ride even further on the edge than he usually would, and it’s an advantage that he has been utilising since he first entered the grand prix paddock. Another example of a counter-clockwise circuit is the American race in Texas; that also happens to be one of Marc’s most dominant circuits, having won there six consecutive times between 2013 and 2018.
This should spell some concern for his rivals this weekend. Marc continues to gain strength between every race, moving closer and closer to full fitness as the season progresses, and this is a track which has heavily favoured him previously. We were expecting him to struggle at the Sachsenring this year despite his previous dominance, yet he was able to demolish the field as if he were the Marc of old. No matter how bad his shoulder remains, this circuit should produce a solid result from the Spaniard.
Conversely, this will be a tough weekend for championship leader Fabio Quartararo. The Frenchman enters this round with a massive lead after his demolition job in Silverstone, but Aragon is not a happy hunting ground for Quartararo, to the degree that he has described it as his worst track on the calendar. His qualifying record here has been fine, even last year, but his race record pales in comparison. While this year has shown a new side of Quartararo, one more confident and consistent than he has ever been before, I simply can’t see him doing well come Sunday’s race.
It probably doesn’t help that the situation around him is pretty awful. Yamaha remains in a state of flux thanks to the firing of Maverick Vinales and the continued absence of Franco Morbidelli, and their lineup this week once again includes a number of stand-ins. Crutchlow remains in the factory team thanks to his position as test rider, while Jake Dixon returns as the Petronas deputy, and while both riders will likely perform to a perfectly fine level it seems unlikely that they will bag big points for the Japanese factory. While Andrea Dovizioso’s return in Misano will help steady the boat somewhat, Morbidelli’s absence remains a big point of uncertainty as rumours have begun circulating that he might not reach full fitness by the next round.
It’s a perplexing situation to be in for Yamaha. On the one hand, Quartararo has been dominating this season since the second round of the championship, and looks set the wrap the title challenge up before the final round in Valencia. On the other hand, the rest of their performances have been pretty abysmal all season, and there is a clear lack of unity within their garage. I’m not going to devote a huge amount of time to this – mostly because I already have in a previous article – but I do think it will be interesting watching how they choose to sort their various dilemmas out over the coming months.
Speaking of Vinales, he’s back, and in a new set of colours. After announcing their signing of the Spaniard for 2022, Aprilia have decided to bring him in for the remainder of the season to replace the injured Savadori, giving Vinales six extra rounds to work on the Italian machine before his first full season next year. According to every press release Vinales has done since the deal was signed, this will be a breathe of fresh air for his career, and a chance for him to kick back into gear after a major slump in form with Yamaha over the past months. Whether or not he’s playing it up for the media, I think it will certainly help him to have some stability return to his life, especially since the move means being reunited with former teammate Aleix Espargaro.
Will he perform well in his debut with the team? Well, since we’ve already had a full day of results, we can see Vinales finished day one in nineteenth, a little over a second off the pace of Jack Miller in P1. This is somewhat to be expected, given he’s only ridden the bike once before this, but it also leaves ample room for improvement; if Vinales gels well with the team and the machine, he could easily finish the weekend in the points given these early results. It’s safe to say he’s in the mix already, though not as far up as he may have hoped, and it should be fascinating to see how the rest of the weekend pans out for the number 12.
For some final thoughts, I thought it pertinent to look into some of the rumours surrounding contracts within the grid. There still isn’t any word on the second satellite seat in Yamaha for next year, though we can likely rule Iker Lecuona out from the running, as he has been linked to a move to the WSBK championship for next season. Most likely, the seat will go to Darryn Binder: whether or not that is a wise move is too much for today’s blog, and will have to be delved into further in the future. Additionally, some of the comments from Ducati management recently seem to imply they’re beginning to run out of patience with Jack Miller’s inconsistencies this season, and are eyeing up the potential to have Jorge Martin promoted to their factory outfit from 2023.
It’s unfortunate to hear given Miller’s success earlier this year, but it makes a lot of sense given Ducati’s position at present. With the loss of Dovizioso last season, they are desperate for a factory rider to take the fight to the championship leaders, and currently Pecco Bagnaia is doing a far better job in that regard than the Australian. Time will tell, of course, but we may see a fascinating plotline begin to emerge in the coming months as Miller attempts to string together enough results to defend his seat from the rising star that is Jorge Martin. If anything, it should help him find some consistency, which he has been sorely missing of late.
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