As a writer and keen follower of MotoGP, I try my hardest to be unbiased when it comes to the individual riders. I find that my enjoyment is greater when there are no personal stakes at play in a given race, as it means I can simply revel in the excitement and drama of the event. While I fully understand that many fans of motorcycle racing have specific riders or teams that they root for, I think that remaining neutral helps for both my entertainment and for the blog itself.
I make no such claims when it comes to circuits. I love a number of the tracks that MotoGP races at, and Mugello is one of my all-time favourites. It’s a phenomenal place to watch from a viewer’s perspective, the rolling hills and vibrant grandstands being complimented by the infamous start-finish straight that leads to some of the most engaging shots in the entire calendar. It’s a fast track, for sure, but it also has a tricky, flowing midfield that allows for some crazy overtakes and stops horsepower from being the only deciding factor in the outcome of a race.
That said, horsepower has certainly been key in recent history. Ducati have won the last three races held at the Mugello circuit, and it hasn’t even been particularly close for the most part. Their ability to open the throttle out of the final corner and simply blitz past any riders ahead of them makes it impossible to stay ahead of them, and their ability to block overtakes in the slower corners makes it difficult to get back ahead. The only time they faced real competition was in 2019 when Honda and Marc Marquez brought a package that could match the speed of the Italians, and even though that led to one of the best races in recent history, the boys in red still came out on top.
That should sound alarm bells for Quartararo. The Frenchman heads into this race with a slender 1 point advantage in the championship standings, and the three riders closest to him are all Ducati riders. Bagnaia, Zarco and Miller have all had impressive form so far this season, and the GP21 machine seems to have made some really impressive steps compared to last year’s model. If Quartararo wants to leave Mugello with the championship lead still intact, he’s going to need to defy several years worth of data that indicates this race will be a straight shootout between his three main rivals.
That’s not to say it’s impossible to win in Italy on a Yamaha. Jorge Lorenzo actually got pretty good at doing exactly that in the early-to-mid 2010’s, taking more wins in Mugello than any other rider during that period of time. This was a different era, however; the Ducatis of the time were much less competitive, without the watchful eye of Gigi Dall’Igna overseeing the development of the machine. It does however make a lot of sense that a more nimble and cornering-focused bike could perform well at this track when you consider the middle section of the circuit. If a bike is able to make up multiple tenths in each of the flowing sectors, and can wear it’s tires less than the monster Ducatis and Hondas, then it should stand a reasonable chance of taking the fight to the finish line.
We actually saw something along those lines in 2019. Alex Rins finished the race fourth on board his trusty Suzuki, staying with the front battle for the entire race and even leading for a couple of sectors. His ability to out-brake the Ducatis and pass them made it seem like they were standing still, but the moment the riders reached the finish straight the likes of Petrucci and Marquez would fly past him again, leaving him with all the work to do all over again. It was similar to how the Suzukis performed in Qatar at the start of this season: able to take the fight to the higher horsepower manufacturers during the lap, but always losing out across the line.
Could the Suzukis challenge again this year? It certainly seems possible, and both Rins and Mir are in desperate need of a solid points finish to bounce back from their disastrous weekend in Le Mans. Their best weapon from 2020 has also been stripped away from them somewhat, as the new tires provided for the 2021 campaign have much better late-race pace which evens the playing field for the other manufacturers. For either Spaniard to succeed, they essentially need to keep in touch with the front pack and nurse their tires as much as possible to put on a late charge and try to steal a podium from the horsepower kings of Ducati and Honda.
Another manufacturer with a point to prove here is Aprilia. Though they’ve gotten off to the best start to a season they’ve ever had in the premier class, the Italian manufacturer still haven’t gotten any silverware to show for it, and Aleix Espargaro will be itching to take a podium on his team’s home soil. This should, in theory, be a track that suits the Aprilia, but historically they’ve struggled here just the same as anywhere else. The bike has made some serious steps in the off-season, much to my chagrin (I predicted another disappointing year for the Noale factory), and the input they’ve been receiving from Andrea Dovizioso should help them to continue on that upwards trajectory. Maybe this will be the year they finally find success in Italy.
Savadori will be less excited than his teammate to be here. Not because of the location, obviously, since this is his home race, but rather for the safety of his seat in the garage. The rumor mill has been in overdrive of late regarding the second seat in the Aprilia factory team, as Dovizioso’s role as a test rider and clear intent on a full-time return next year seem to indicate danger on Savadori’s part. It feels cruel that his seat could be under fire so soon after he graduated into the position of full-time rider, especially after he had his best weekend yet as a MotoGP rider in Le Mans two weeks ago, but this is the nature of contract talks. Until you have a seat locked down, anything is possible.
Speaking of seats being locked in for 2022, it would be remiss of me not to mention Aussie rider Jack Miller’s contract extension which was announced earlier this week. It should come as no shock given his last two outings on a GP21, but Ducati are keen to keep him in their factory lineup for another season. There were many people who hailed the change from experience to youth in their primary squad as a mistake, but the decision is already paying off handsomely with both Miller and Bagnaia in the early fight for the championship. I expect their names to continue to appear at the pointy end of the time sheets for quite some time.
That leaves very few factory seats available for next year. Honda, Ducati, Suzuki and Yamaha have already locked in their factory squads for 2022, and Aleix Espargaro will remain with Aprilia for next year as well. Since it seems unlikely that either Binder or Oliveira will move away from the KTM lineup as it currently stands, this leaves Savadori’s Aprilia seat as the only one seriously up for grabs right now. While we will likely see a number of changes within the satellite teams – not least because of the introduction of Gresini as a standalone outfit – it makes sense that the Aprilia seat would be the source of much conversation within the racing community.
Will Aprilia stick with Savadori, or seek someone with more experience? It’s tough to say. The second seat in the Aprilia garage has changed hands every season since 2017, and to continue that trend is deeply concerning, but they currently represent the only path back into the sport for Dovizioso. It could also represent the only path out of Yamaha for Morbidelli, should he be inclined, and there may still be interest in filling that seat with a Moto2 graduate like Marco Bezzechi or Joe Roberts. The larger issue that Aprilia may face is the difficulty in pinning someone down when they have such a history for passing the mantle on every time contract season rolls around.
All of this will paint the backdrop for this year’s race in Mugello, but it will hardly take away from the main event. It is a tragedy that there won’t be any fans in attendance this year, as the atmosphere is always nothing short of ballistic when the racing kicks off on a Sunday, but the riders will do their best to make up for it with another titanic battle. I, for one, am just delighted to be back.
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