Note: despite being published after the first day of the French Grand Prix, the majority of this blog was written before the start of the weekend. Thanks for your patience!
Wet weather motorcycle races are some of the most brilliant and most dangerous things you can watch. Battling against a reduced level of grip and pushing to remain competitive despite the appalling conditions, it can really bring out the guts and glory of a rider and showcases some unique styles and talents that you just don’t see in an everyday race. In addition, anyone who loves a crash-filled race usually gets a kick out of wet races thanks to the high attrition rates.
Last year we had just one wet race in the MotoGP season. The French GP of 2020 was preceded by a downpour that led to many riders being caught out. Wet weather pros like Dovizioso, Petrucci and Miller all rose to the front, while many of the rookies and sophomores struggled with the demands of a MotoGP bike in the rain for the first time. It was a race full of surprises that turned around the fortunes of many members of the grid.
We return to Le Mans in 2021 to find that nothing has changed. The forecast heading into the weekend was for rain every single day, meaning dry track time would be slim. It’s going to be a bitterly cold weekend for the whole paddock as everyone tries their best to remain on top of these changeable conditions.
A wet race is one thing, but having the whole weekend plagued by on-and-off showers makes every session a nightmare for the teams and riders. If FP1 is held under dry skies, then the riders must treat it as a mini qualifying session to guarantee they have a banker lap down to get themselves into Q2. If FP2 is dry, then the same applies. Every session becomes a test of each team’s tactics and each riders mettle, something that is completely different to that of a regular weekend.
It’s also going to make things rather dangerous. With riders chasing fast laps at all points of the weekend they won’t have as much of an opportunity to get heat into the tyres, meaning they won’t have as reliable a set-up underneath them. Riders will fall, most likely in greater numbers than previous rounds this season, and that will cause major problems for their respective teams. Forget the race itself, the whole weekend is going to be a marathon.
In theory it should at least be easy to predict who will reign supreme come Sunday. Since last year’s race was also run under wet conditions, won’t the same riders rise to the top? Unfortunately, looking at the results from 2020’s French GP it becomes quickly apparent that they will be of little help. For starters, the top finishers included a number of riders that have either left the championship or switched teams, and the strengths of the different manufacturers has shifted somewhat in the intervening months.
The 2020 podium included Petrucci, who has moved to KTM and lost all form, and Pol Espargaro, who has struggled since joining Honda at the start of this year. Then there’s Dovizioso, who has left MotoGP entirely, and Alex Marquez who showed incredible form last year but hasn’t had a decent result to his name in 2021. In fact, the only two riders who were podium contenders last time who could challenge again in theory are Rins and Miller, but neither rider actually finished the race in 2020, so the jury’s still out on them.
At the very least, the home heroes should have a point to prove here. Both Quartararo and Zarco have had mixed results in previous editions of the French GP, and both will be looking to turn around their lackluster performances in Jerez and get their championship challenges back on track. It’s a shame there won’t be any fans in the grandstands, as the French love a local favourite, but perhaps the lack of an audience could reduce the pressure on the shoulders of both riders.
Then there’s the champion, Joan Mir. Despite only being on the podium once so far in 2021, the reigning champ lies fourth in the standings and well within the hunt for the title. His key to success last year was consistency, but there was one major chink in his armour: Mir had a disastrous French GP in 2020, struggling with his first wet race on a MotoGP bike and ending up battling for tenth with Quartararo and Vinales. It’s something the Suzuki rider will need to overcome if he wants to repeat his success this year, as he can’t really afford to be spending his off days scrapping it out for the bare minimum of points.
One interesting rider to watch will be Marc Marquez. The 8-times champion is historically a master in the rain, often able to make shapes and lines out of his machine that other riders simply can’t match in such tricky conditions, but it must be remembered that he is still deep within his recovery period. If he feels like he has what it takes to fight at the front then we may finally see the return of the Marquez of old. If not, this may be one of the most difficult races for the Spaniard since he returned to MotoGP.
Whatever happens this weekend, it will be unlike anything we’ve seen so far this season, so buckle up and enjoy the show.
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