Normally, we visit each circuit once a year at around the same time. MotoGP seasons have been following the same formula for quite some time now in terms of their calendars. We start under the floodlights in Qatar, then head over to Argentina and the US for a spell, before heading to Europe and settling in for the main section of the season. The final few rounds move overseas to Australia and the wider Asia region, and then Valencia plays host to the finale.
This creates a number of interesting scenarios for riders. Since the European circuits are the most commonly used tracks for junior classes and up-and-coming racers, both the start of the season and the Asian flyaway rounds tend to produce more unpredictable results. These unfamiliar circuits are also the most likely to have riders who dominate them, as the competition only gets to challenge them once every twelve months. Think Casey Stoner in Australia, or Marc Marquez in Texas.
So it’s a truly unusual set of circumstances that we find ourselves racing in Portimao this weekend, not even five months after the previous showdown at the Portugese circuit. This is of course due to the unusual circumstances brought about by the Covid pandemic, as the 2020 season had a number of drastic calendar changes. Portimao was a circuit that had exclusively been used by the World Superbike series up until last year, so when the MotoGP paddock arrived for the first time it created quite the event.
The fact that the paddock was in Portugal so recently and the fact that this weekend’s race is just the second MotoGP event at the circuit make it impossibly difficult to predict the results of the weekend. Barring local hero Miguel Oliveira, no-one has more than a few races at this track under their belt, and for the non-CEV, non-superbike riders they may just have the one race’s experience to draw from. Conversely, the fact that we were here so recently means the riders have fresh memories of how to handle a MotoGP bike around the Portugese circuit, which should help make the field more competitive than last year.
And a competitive field will be required if anyone wants to stop Oliveira. The Portugese rider obliterated the field last time out, taking pole position and romping his way to his second win in the premier class. It’s not just the fact that he has more experience at the track than his opponents, he also carries the weight of the Portugese racing community on his shoulders. This motivation to perform in front of his home fans appears to bring out a whole new side of Oliveira, and if he can get away at the front in this weekend’s race he might be impossible to catch.
There are more roadblocks in the KTM rider’s way this time, however. The first big one is the resurgence of the Yamaha riders thanks to their brilliance in the Qatar openers. Compare the energy and confidence they bring to Portimao this year to the state of affairs in November: Quartararo and Vinales had just lost the title fight to Mir, and were coming off the back of some of their worst qualifying performances all season. This time around they’re second and third in the championship, with one win apiece and a hunger to take the spotlight away from Zarco and the Ducatis. For a youngster like Quartararo and a mentality-focused rider like Vinales, this could be the big change they need to find some form in Portugal.
The second roadblock is a highly anticipated one: the return of the king. Marc Marquez, after 265 days without riding a MotoGP bike, returns to the grid this weekend to begin his title retaliation. There is obviously no real way of knowing exactly how Marc will perform in his first race back, but given his nature and the way he carries himself in interviews he seems confident his recovery will be short. He’s picked a tough circuit to stage his comeback – Marc lacks any real experience in Portimao, having not raced here last year, and the nature of ‘the Rollercoaster’ means his arm may suffer more here than at other circuits – but it will be a relief all the same to see the familiar number 93 lapping around on a Repsol bike.
Oliveira’s closest challengers from last year could certainly use a leg up. Jack Miller will begin this week in some minor discomfort after undergoing arm pump surgery between races, and desperately needs a good result after being completely outdone by the other GP21 Ducati riders in both Qatar races. Morbidelli could also use a clean slate after a disastrous fortnight in Qatar, taking almost no points as he attempts to take another run at the title after his 2020 success. If either of them can bag a podium here, it would do wonders for their championship chances.
It’s impossible to rule them, or anyone else, out. That’s simply the nature of the MotoGP championship at the moment. When the majority of the season is based in Europe, but we start in Qatar, the points standings as we head into Portimao are not reflective of a rider’s chances for the season as a whole. In addition, we currently have one of the tightest, most competitive lineups in premier class history, and the gap between factory riders and satellite ones has never been smaller. We saw how close the championship could be last year, and so far it seems set to remain the same, at least until Marc Marquez gets back up to speed.
You can’t even make much of a case for any one of the manufacturers to come out best. Sure, KTM and Honda should perform well here in theory, having the best turning of any bikes in the class, but Ducati and Yamaha were so dominant in the opening rounds one has to assume they will make improvements here. Suzuki will also have something of a point to prove here after a miserable race at the end of last season, and Aprilia will want to showcase their improvements from winter testing at a new track. We won’t really know which bikes are best suited to the rolling hills until we get to race day on Sunday.
And in a way, that’s a good thing. With the sport so close and the bikes and riders so competitive, it makes every week of racing a delight as a viewer. You never really know what MotoGP will throw at you next, so I recommend simply buckling in and enjoying the ride as the best riders in the world tackle the Rollercoaster. I sincerely doubt they will disappoint.
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