There were a great many winners and losers from the first two rounds of 2021. Zarco leaves with the championship lead, the first time he has occupied this spot since stepping up to MotoGP. Vinales and Quartararo took solid points as well as the lead in the team’s and constructor’s championships. Suzuki, at a circuit they have historically struggled with, managed to leave with both riders still well and truly in the title hunt.
Conversely, Honda suffered another rough opening to their season. While Pol Espargaro was able to notch up a couple of points finishes in his first races with the Repsol squad, neither of the LCR riders managed to score even a single point. Similarly, tyre issues plagued KTM throughout their time in Doha and struggled to take any points at all. Switching to a Medium front ended up saving them somewhat in the second race and allowing factory rider Binder to take a top ten finish and keep them in the running, but it was a tough couple of weeks overall for the Austrian manufacturer.
All of this must be music to the ears of returning class heavyweight Marc Marquez. The Spaniard is set to return to racing at the Portimao circuit for the third round of the season, which has lead to a huge amount of speculation over both his condition upon returning and what his initial results will look like. While he likely could have made a return for the opening night under the floodlights, he took advice from his doctors and spent an extra couple of weeks training and recovering in order to give himself the best chance at coming back strong and fit.
Not that this is a surprise tactic from those who have seen Marc in action. Though he is a man filled to the brim with raw talent and potential, much of his success in MotoGP can be put down to his strategic and calculating manner. Marc rides smart, knowing when he should be fighting for wins, taking safe podiums, or just taking a massive lead and squashing his opponents with his raw speed. We saw it a plethora of times in 2019, where he would spend entire races tailing riders that had better overall speed only to pounce on them in the final lap and exploit their weaknesses to secure the win. With this level of strategy at play, it’s no wonder he decided to play the long game with his 2021 return.
And honestly? He didn’t lose much ground in the championship by waiting. Marc heads into the third round just 40 points behind leader Zarco, and with just four riders more than 25 points ahead of him (Zarco, Quartararo, Vinales and Bagnaia). In addition, the riders who were the strongest championship contenders from last year are somewhat scattered, with Morbidelli barely scoring any points and reigning champion Mir down in sixth. It’s looking increasingly like it will be another championship with mixed results for many riders, and that lack of consistency is exactly what Marc needs to fight for the title.
It may not happen instantly – in fact, I don’t really expect Marc to challenge for the podium in his first race back – but once he finds his rhythm again, the 8-times champ will surely return to producing consistent results. Maybe not the same kind of unbelievable form we saw in 2019 when he finished either first or second in every race, but certainly consistent podiums and top 5’s should be on the cards for him. If he can keep his cool and push his opponents in the same way he’s done in the past, then there’s no reason why he couldn’t take title number nine this year.
The nightmare scenario for Marc this year was to return and find one or two riders head and shoulders above the rest. If Mir, for example, had continued his form from last year and kicked off the year with a double podium, or if the top few riders had all bagged big points from the double header, then Marquez might have been too far behind to catch up. Instead, it appears that we are set for another season where multiple riders will be battling for wins and podiums at every circuit, which is the perfect scenario for a rider to make a comeback in.
For every time that we have seen Marc Marquez be cold and calculating, there is a similar example of him being ruthless and battling other riders in a gloves-off, heads-down battle for the win. Yes, he can be a master tactician, but Marc also knows how to battle for the win, and his uniquely aggressive riding style allows him to pick his opponents’ pockets in ways that they could never possibly predict or prepare for. Few riders over the last 3-4 years have managed to properly beat him in a one-on-one fight – Dovizioso and Lorenzo stand out as examples, but neither of them are racing this season – and the list of riders that have lost a race win to Marquez in a last-lap showdown is almost unbelievably long.
The only real question then becomes how long it will take for Marc to become comfortable enough to start engaging other riders for valuable points. He knows he has the talent and the ability to start challenging for podiums and wins, but he will also be well aware that if he re-injures himself it may spell the end of his career. There is a tricky balance at play here, one that only Marc and his team of doctors know the true balance of, and it will be fascinating to see how quickly he starts pulling the same old aggressive manoeuvres that he has become so well known for.
At the very least, he can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that the championship is still wide open as he makes his return. If a rider or two emerges as the premier title threat, then Marc’s chances may begin to slim somewhat, but until then I expect to see him keep his head down, regain the comfort and style he used to have on the bike, and begin planning for the long game. And when it comes to planning for the long game, there might not be a single rider better prepared than Marc Marquez.
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