With just days until lights go out for the first race of the 2021 MotoGP season, it’s time for me to make my claims for where all the riders stand before we start racing. I did this last year (before the blog was a thing), and people seemed to really enjoy my articles where I came back to it at the conclusion of the season, so hopefully this will become an annual tradition here at solomontalksbikes.com.
As with last year, each rider will be rated on a score between 0.0 and 5.0, along with a brief summary of how I see their season panning out. These scores and reviews will be revisited at the end of the year to see how accurate I was with my predictions. So, where does everyone end up?
Lorenzo Savadori – 1.3
Look, Savadori seems like a good guy, but he seriously didn’t impress me in the final races of 2020. Couple those medium results with a tough pre-season, and it would appear the former Italian Superbike champ looks set to have a difficult rookie season with Aprilia. In fairness, the Aprilia is a wildly inconsistent bike, so perhaps he would be better suited to a different machine, but expect to see Savadori in the back of the pack most races.
Aleix Espargaro – 2.4
This one was… tricky, to say the least. Aleix is an experienced MotoGP rider, but he hasn’t had any good results in quite some time, and though he seemed impressive in testing, I just can’t quite believe the Aprilia has grown that much stronger in the off season. Maybe I’ll eat my words here, but I think this is going to be another middling year for the older of the Espargaro brothers.
Jack Miller – 4.1
This one was a surprise to me, but a good one at that. Miller has really come into form of late, with a slew of strong results at the end of 2020 and a great pre-season on his new factory bike. The Ducati seems like it’s stepped up in 2021, and Miller looks set to lead the charge and take on the championship representing the Italian manufacturer. When the wins start coming – and believe me, they will come – Miller may become rather difficult to beat.
Francesco Bagnaia – 2.9
This is another rating that feels almost cruel, but I just can’t bring myself to label Pecco as a championship challenger this year. He had moments of form last year, including a podium in San Marino and a further two podium chances that ended in retirements, but he also struggled at several points to put decent results together. Direct factory support should help, but honestly, I don’t think Bagnaia will influence the title race this year.
Johann Zarco – 3.3
Zarco’s in a good place right now, and he seems to be going from strength to strength. Taking pole position in Brno last year was an important moment in his career, proving he had properly bounced back from his KTM woes, and if he can continue putting together strong results like that he could be in for a good season. That said, he had some low moments of form last year, so maybe I’m overshooting with this one, but I have faith in the experienced Frenchman.
Jorge Martin – 2.1
Rating rookies continues to be the bane of my existence, but Martin is a force to be reckoned with and I fully believe he’s got what it takes to make it in MotoGP. He’s a former Moto3 champion, and would have challenged for the Moto2 title last year if he hadn’t been sidelined with COVID-19. With the support that comes with a seat in the Pramac box, I expect good things to come from young Jorge.
Luca Marini – 1.6
I tossed and turned over this one, because Marini is a good rider and a known campaigner. Rossi’s half brother and VR46 Academy rider, Marini showed some impressive form last year in Moto2, but it really doesn’t seem like he’s adapted to the bigger machinery as well as other rookies have. Maybe this is too harsh a mark, but I would be seriously surprised if Luca ends up being the top rookie of this year.
Enea Bastianini – 2.3
Bastianini heads into this season as the reigning Moto2 champ, and in my mind he’s the rookie with the best odds of success this season. Sure, pre-season testing isn’t a sure-fire basis for anything much, but he does appear to have some impressive pace for someone new to the class. I’m not saying I expect him to take a podium or anything – although I’m not ruling it out either – but he seems like a talented young rider and my favourite for Rookie of the Year.
Pol Espargaro – 3.6
In a fairly informative article posted earlier this year I discussed my belief that Pol Espargaro would be a strong rider on a Honda in 2021, and so far that article is holding firm. Pol has adapted very quickly to his new machinery, and stands a good chance of being a podium contender right out the gates. Whether this form holds firm is something only time will tell, but he should be in for at least a couple of podiums, maybe even more.
Marc Marquez – 4.3
Marc returns to the MotoGP field this year after being absent in 2020 due to injury, and it’s a welcome return at that. Marc is perhaps the best motorcycle racer in the world at present, an eight-times world champ, and though he will miss at least the first two rounds of this seasons he’s still a strong favourite for the title. Anyone who has seen Marc race knows a storm is fast approaching for the rest of the field, and his form will be a great indicator for things to come.
Takaaki Nakagami – 2.9
Nakagami had his best season yet in 2020, but podium glory still eludes him. The Idemitsu-backed Honda rider enters his fourth year in the premier class with a lot of pressure to succeed, as he was the best-finishing Honda rider last year, and while his qualifying record towards the end of last year was very impressive, he’ll have to bring more to the table in 2021 if he wants to retain his spot in the premier class.
Alex Marquez – 2.8
The younger Marquez brother is a rookie no more, and he enters 2021 with Marc’s imminent return looming over him. Two podiums in his first season was an extraordinary result, but now he needs to start working on his consistency issues and get better qualifying results. If he clicks like he did in Aragon last year he may be a threat at the front, but for now I expect him to continue learning and growing in the mid-pack.
Brad Binder – 2.5
Brad’s a MotoGP race winner now, and while that in itself is an impressive feat, that’s about all the good news that came out of his first season in the premier class. Brad’s a competitive rider and a Moto3 champion, so I doubt he’ll settle for living in the mid-pack, but right now I can’t see him impacting the championship much.
Miguel Oliveira – 3.2
Now here’s a surprise from 2020. Oliveira steps up to the factory KTM squad with two wins to his name, and looks set to take over as the top dog in the team. His results last year were quietly impressive, and with full factory support he may have his best chance yet at some consistent podiums, but I’m wary of the lackluster pre-season results the KTM factory had. If they can figure out their issues with pace, expect Oliveira to be the biggest benefactor of the improvements.
Danilo Petrucci – 2.1
Petrucci’s had a good run in his time in the MotoGP, taking two wins during his stint with the factory Ducati squad, but this move to the satellite KTM team is a sign that things may be coming to a close for him in the near future. He remains one of the strongest wet weather riders in the paddock, and a change of paint shouldn’t impact that, but I fear he may struggle to return to the podium in 2021 and beyond.
Iker Lecuona – 1.7
Sorry, Iker. Normally, finishing in the top 10 several times in your rookie season would be an impressive feat, but Lecuona had the misfortune of sharing rookie honours with both Binder and Alex Marquez, and that has clearly put a damper on things. If the KTM can improve somewhat from their position in testing, he may put together some fine results, but the class is looking ultra competitive this year, and some riders just don’t look up to the challenge. My prediction is a few points finishes but nothing exciting for Lecuona.
Joan Mir – 4.3
Mir begins his title defense and his third season in the premier class looking relaxed and confident, which must be scaring the pants off his rivals. He will face greater challenges this season – the return of Marc Marquez for one, a longer season for another – but he’s also on what is arguably the best bike on the grid. If Suzuki can figure out how to qualify with consistency, then things should become far easier for Mir, but either way he seems a strong favourite for the title once again.
Alex Rins – 4.0
Rins comes into this season with a fire and drive he’s not had for a while – he’s the second best rider in his pit box. Losing the title battle to his teammate last year must have stung, especially since his early season was hampered by injury, and Rins will want to bounce back from that with some serious form. While he is a multiple-times race winner, he’s not been a consistent presence on the podium before, so if he can change that then he may pose a serious problem for Mir.
Maverick Vinales – 3.6
My ratings for Vinales continue to dip as he continues to disappoint me. Sure, he’s the only rider to have won at least one race every season since 2016, but his off days are almost hard to watch. When he’s on form – think Malaysia/Australia 2019 – he’s damn near impossible to beat, but consistency issues and struggling with race starts constantly get in his way. I really, really hope to be proven wrong on this one.
Fabio Quartararo – 3.9
This one was difficult. Quartararo is clearly a talented rider, and by all rights should have made a strong challenge for the title last year, but his form just completely slipped away from him in the second half of the season. His qualifying record is unbelievable, and he’s proven he knows how to win races, but I worry he may continue to struggle to put together consistent results. This is a hopeful rating from me, as I really want the young Frenchman to have a good season.
Franco Morbidelli – 4.1
Morbidelli starts this year as a favourite to take the fight to Mir, and for good reason. He showed blistering form at multiple stages last year, hampered primarily by technical issues from Yamaha and an unfortunate DNF in Austria. Should everything come together for Franco, then he will be one of the few who could really dominate this year’s championship, and I have been nothing short of impressed by his turnaround from 2019.
Valentino Rossi – 2.6
Rossi is a known factor in the MotoGP field. Nine times champion, with a record that other riders could only dream of, Rossi has made an incredible impact on the sport through his 20+ years of racing, but I honestly don’t believe he has the form or the pace to continue fighting for podiums. I overshot him last year, I’m trying to be more realistic this year, and knowing my luck I’ll be completely wrong and he’ll win the title. You just don’t know with a wily old fox like Rossi.
And that’s all of them! With the riders on track later today, and the season opener just days away, it’s finally time to go racing once again. I’m so unbelievably excited for this season of MotoGP – bring it on, 2021!
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