2021’s winter testing is over. Thanks to COVID-19, there was no rigorous schedule of events, no traveling around from country to country as the teams and riders took the time and care needed to prepare for an assault on the coming season. No, this year’s testing involved five days of racing at the Losail International Circuit in Qatar, which will also be home to the first two races of the season. (Technically, testing was split into two ‘tests’, a two-day and three-day split, but it was essentially one big affair since the paddock stayed in the area on their off days.)
I for one am a strong believer in the mantra that testing results amount for almost nothing when the season begins. Followers of the sport have a tendency to view the overall times at the end of a test as law when it comes to the competitiveness of different riders and manufacturers, completely ignoring the fact that teams have different goals and schedules to maintain during a test. Sure, a rider may find themselves fifteenth at the end of a day of tests, but perhaps they were simply trying out a number of new pieces for their bike, or focusing on race pace rather than single lap shootouts. The truth is, eyeing down a list of the fastest laps each rider produced is relatively moot when trying to predict how the coming season will pan out, but as a MotoGP enthusiast and blogger I feel obligated to have some kind of a review of the key facts and takeaways, so here it is.
Miller crushing it, factory style
There can be no doubt about it: Jack Miller was the king of the Qatar test. Thrashing the all-time lap record by nearly two tenths, and clocking in consistent fast laps to keep himself towards the top of each day’s results, Miller has adapted very quickly to his position within the factory Ducati team. The Australian heads into this season off the back of some strong results at the end of 2020, and will be no doubt looking to cement himself as an early championship challenger.
There were a number of interesting things Ducati brought to the table for testing, but the big one was a new aero package at the front of the bike. Since they were unable to change the design of their engine thanks to the COVID freeze for the major manufacturers, Ducati were clearly looking for different ways to gain an edge in speed over their rivals, and it appears they nailed it with this one. Miller briefly flirted with the old 2020 aero design, but seemed far more satisfied working with the newer design, which onlookers have theorised is designed to apply more downforce at the front of the machine.
It wasn’t just Miller that found success with it, either. Bagnaia showed some promise on his factory debut as well, claiming a top ten spot overall and keeping within a second of his more experienced teammate. Zarco also produced some impressive results onboard his satellite machine, the Frenchman clocking in the highest speed ever recorded by a MotoGP bike. After a middling season in 2020 where he showed some minor success but failed to deliver in consistency, Zarco must be pleased with his results in testing, as the speed he was able to produce should help him convert into some decent finishes at the start of the 2021 season.
Well-placed rookies
Ducati’s other three riders are all entering their rookie seasons, and achieved mixed results over the testing period. Reigning Moto2 champion Enea Bastianini was quick from the start, adapting faster than his opponents and besting a number of long-time MotoGP riders on each of the days of testing. Pramac rider Jorge Martin managed to pip him on day four to take top spot in the overall standings of the rookies, and while the Spaniard has shown some promise it can generally be agreed that ‘the Beast’ was the most impressive of the freshman riders.
Luca Marini took a slower, more diligent approach to his learning, adapting bit-by-bit, which resulted in him being lower in the standings than his rivals, but he seemed content with his improvements overall and should be set for a decent start to the 2021 season. The same cannot be said for the final rookie of this year, who I completely forgot about in my article dedicated to the new riders thanks to him already riding a couple of races at the end of the previous season: Lorenzo Savadori, onboard the factory Aprilia. Savadori failed to impress over all five days, finishing bottom of the pile in the race for the rookies to master their bikes before the season opener.
Another year, another hope for Aprilia
It’s a situation Aprilia have faced before. Their new model, which is revamped significantly from the 2020 design, is showing a lot of promise in the hands of their lead rider Aleix Espargaro. Aleix topped day one of testing, showed consistent pace throughout the week, and remained in the top ten times with shock consistency. This is as good as he’s ever looked onboard the Noale factory bike, but can his testing results be trusted come race day?
Aprilia have struggled to be competitive since their introduction to the class, perhaps in part due to their rotating doors of rider line-ups. Savadori is yet another rider in his first full season on the factory squad, and without any consistency in their team they are forced to rely solely on Espargaro for testing and results. Hopefully the promise that has been shown during this pre-season will lead to better results than recent seasons, but after many years of struggles I wouldn’t keep my hopes up.
Like a fish to water
Aleix wasn’t the only member of the Espargaro family in good form. Younger brother Pol has adapted to the factory Honda faster than anyone expected, putting himself quickly into the top ten in combined times and pushing for consistent lap times. Despite never having ridden for Honda before, Pol was able to find the limits of the bike quickly and make some minor adaptations to his riding style to make the most of his new manufacturer.
This should cause nervousness among his competition. No new Honda rider has adapted to the bike this quickly since Marc Marquez when he first joined the factory squad, and given the results of the Repsol team last year it seems even more daunting that he could be so quick so soon. Pol’s aggressive riding style should match the bike quite well, but even then it is a welcome surprise to see him looking so confident after just a few days of riding. He was a competitive rider last year on the KTM, and it looks like a change of colours is unlikely to slow his roll this year.
Elsewhere in the Honda garage, Alex Marquez and Takaki Nakagami both had quiet weeks as they took the burden of testing most of the new parts brought by the Japanese manufacturer. Test rider Stefan Bradl was also present, still replacing the injured Marc Marquez, but Marc has been put on the entry list for the first race of the season in the hopes that he will be fit to ride by then. Honda can only hope that one of their four riders comes to the fore when the lights go out later this month.
Yamaha vs. the World
Yamaha had a very strong week in Qatar. Quartararo, Vinales and satellite rider Morbidelli all managed to slot themselves into the top ten overall times, showing consistently hot pace as they adapt to their new parts for 2021. Ousted factory rider Rossi had a more difficult time of it, struggling to put together strong lap times and falling outside of the top cut of riders. All told, it seems the Yamahas will head into the new season retaining their record in single lap pace, as evidenced by the final results of the test.
Unfortunately their issues from last year don’t appear to have evaporated either. Quartararo seemed worried about his race pace, while Vinales spent multiple days focused on his starting procedure and riding style rather than testing new parts. Yamaha have to be cautiously optimistic here, as they clearly have some competitive riders in their ranks, but their technical demons may stand in the way of championship glory.
The one diamond in the rough here is Franco Morbidelli. Runner-up in 2020, the Italian continues to show great form and a relatively carefree attitude as he sets his sights on the title for this year. With mentor Rossi as his new teammate, and having proven himself capable of winning races and controlling from the front, all Morbidelli really needs to put a challenge together in 2021 is some extra consistency and a good bike underneath him.
The first person you have to beat
Speaking of riders with good bikes under them – Suzuki continue to look in fantastic shape. Both Rins and Mir were found towards the spiky end of the time sheets every day of testing as they both prepare themselves for the battle that lies ahead. For Mir, 2021 is the year he attempts to defend a MotoGP title for the first time. For Rins, his sights are locked firmly on being the one to take the crown away from his younger teammate.
It’s bound to be a fierce contest between the two Spaniards. Rins likely would have posed a bigger threat to Mir’s championship last year had he not started the season off with an injury, and one would imagine he feels somewhat robbed of his own chance at glory given how unbelievable the Suzuki team were towards the end of the season. Mir wants to prove that he has more than one crown in him, that he has the potential to stand with the greats like Marquez and Lorenzo, and to achieve that will involve snubbing his teammate for a second successive season. Reports that the atmosphere within the pitbox has grown tense and frosty are easy to believe when you consider both riders likely view the other as their primary rival for 2021.
Which one will come out stronger? That’s for a braver man than myself to guess, but given Mir’s more consistent form last year one has to assume he will at least start the year off with the upper hand. His goal is to simply keep going up and up from where he already stands; Rins has the harder task, having to soundly defeat a rider with the same equipment as him. All told, it should be a fascinating story that will unfold over many races and many months.
Am I forgetting anyone?
And then there’s KTM. The Austrian manufacturer had an unfortunately quiet time during the Qatar test, with none of the riders making any particular inroads or impressions. Oliveira was fastest of the bunch, continuing his form from the end of last year, but the Tech 3 boys lagged far behind their factory counterparts. Even one-time race winner Brad Binder seemed lost for much of the week, struggling to make his mark or even find consistency on board the RC16.
This is a somewhat confusing place for KTM to be in. As one of only two manufacturers who were allowed to develop their engines for this season, they appear to have almost gone backwards with their results, going from competitive all year last year to treading water at the back of the timesheets in testing. Of course, testing isn’t the same as a real race weekend, but one has to imagine there is some concern brewing within the KTM garage as we approach the start of the season. Binder and Oliveira appear to have a lot of work to do if either of them seek to launch a championship charge against the more familiar machinery of Suzuki, Yamaha and Ducati.
Once again, though, I must reinforce that in the grand scheme of things – none of these results really matter. Testing can be a fine indicator for things to come, but in the end we will only really know who is most prepared for the coming season when the lights go out and racing begins once again. Luckily for us, that is only days away – so I hope everyone is as excited as I am to be back in the thick of things. Bring on 2021!
Solomon Talks Bikes 