Ducati have taken a big risk in 2021 – here’s how it might pay off

The factory Ducati team has historically included some of the all-time greats of MotoGP. From world champions like Nicky Hayden, Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner to veterans of the sport like Andrea Dovizioso and Loris Capirossi, there has never been a shortage of raw talent on board the red rockets. Not everyone has managed to master their bikes – both Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi struggled during their time with the Italian factory – but overall, the Ducati factory has always been able to rely on their factory lineup for success in the premier class.

Now, take a look at their lineup for 2021. The factory squad contains Jack Miller and Pecco Bagnaia, two completely new faces to the main team, and three of their four satellite riders are rookies. Between all six riders, they possess just a single MotoGP win, a few intermediate championships (plus one from Moto3), and seventeen premier class podiums (though a number of them came from Zarco’s stint at Yamaha). This is a younger, more inexperienced lineup than anything they’ve had for many years now, and it raises the question – what has changed in Ducati’s planning?

For the last four years or so, Ducati’s main claim to fame has been Andrea Dovizioso. Sure, a number of his factory teammates have had their moments in the spotlight, but when you look at the raw number of wins and consistent results the Italian put together during his time with the factory team, especially from 2016 onwards, you realise just how important he has been to the factory’s overall success. Dovi has fought for the world title for four consecutive seasons, and finished runner-up to Marquez in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Unfortunately, his relationship with team boss Gigi Dall’Igna didn’t last all that long. Despite Dovi’s continued success on his machine, Gigi was constantly clashing with the Italian rider over the direction that Ducati should be headed in, causing their relationship to turn frosty. Ironically, their desires never appeared to be that far apart from one another: Gigi wanted to produce a bike that could win a world title, and Dovi wanted to be the one to win it. Sadly for Dovi, coming close on a number of occasions wasn’t enough for the heads of Ducati’s racing team, and he stepped away from the factory team and out of MotoGP, at least for now, at the end of 2020.

Which put Ducati in a tricky place. The 2021 rider market started shifting into gear very early in the year, with big signings like Marc Marquez and the Suzuki team getting locked in well before the delayed 2020 season could even commence. Ducati made it clear they were hunting around for factory signings – Vinales, Quartararo and others all came up in reports – but eventually all the other big-name factory seats were sealed, and Ducati were left out in the cold. Their only real options appeared to be from within their current lineup.

In fairness, there was plenty of talent available to them. Jack Miller has proven to be rather adept at riding a Ducati, scoring a number of podiums over the last two years on board a satellite team. Bagnaia and Zarco are both intermediate champions, and while Zarco struggled to perform on a 2019 KTM he showed potential on the Avintia bike from early on. Signing any combination of the three of them would likely yield decent results.

Ducati chose to go with the youthful option, signing Miller and Bagnaia on as the new faces of their factory program. This, combined with taking on three rookies for their satellite squads in 2021, indicates a fairly radical shift in tactics for Ducati as a manufacturer. Before now they’ve always seemed to favour taking strong riders from other teams and moulding them into Ducati riders, constantly attempting to poach big talent from other factories to skip the learning process. Now, it seems they are choosing to back the young talent, shaping their more junior riders from the ground up.

It’s a strategy that has worked for other factories before, and while it seems foolish to have dropped surefire talents like Dovi and Petrucci, it makes sense from a management position. With a slew of younger riders available to them, Ducati will be able to better shape their riders around the bike they provide. When Dovi was their main hopeful, there was a constant struggle between the direction he wanted to take the bike and the direction Dall’Igna was interested in. Now, they should have a more streamlined process of design, with a factory team composed of well-trained Ducati riders and a trio of hungry freshman on satellite machinery.

Losing a talent like Dovi is a huge risk, but with the state of his relationship with Ducati management and the lack of experienced riders available to take his place, rolling the dice with younger riders makes a lot of sense. Ducati’s shift in focus could reap some major rewards depending on how quickly everyone adapts to the new setups, and while they will struggle to repeat their victory in the manufacturer’s standings in 2021, their long-term goals might be rather lofty indeed.