I have a tradition among my friends where every weekend, if there’s a MotoGP race happening somewhere in the world, we get together on Sunday nights to watch the race. (I live in Australia, so they inevitably go live around 10pm if the racing is in Europe.) For the 2020 season, with all the confusion that happened around COVID and the race cancellations, I decided to write a guide for my friends in order to get them up to date for the start of the season. The goal of the guide was to educate, and one of the things I decided to do was rate each of the 21 riders in the field (there was uncertainty surrounding Iannone’s replacement at the time so I skipped Bradley Smith. Apologies, Brad).
For each rider, I gave them a rating between 0.0 and 5.0, as well as a brief description of why I believed they deserved that rating. Today, I’m going to revisit those scores and see how well my ratings held up over the course of the 2020 season. Let’s dive in!
Aleix Espargaro – 1.9
Aleix is a talented rider, no doubt about it, and his insane training program he’s been working on during the off season proves his dedication to both the sport and to Aprilia, but I just can’t see him bagging strong results with the bike he’s on at the moment. If it suddenly turns out that the 2020 model has skyrocketed in competitiveness, then I’ll be happily wrong about this, but unfortunately I expect both Aleix and Aprilia as a whole to be outshone once again by his younger brother.
Well, it was a pretty depressing year for Aleix. Despite all the promises from Aprilia that their new bike would finally bring it back into the competition, nothing really came from it, and Aleix suffered some consistently terrible results. In contrast, his younger brother Pol had his best season yet, so I’m gonna say I was right on all counts here.
Johann Zarco – 2.4
This was one of the tougher ratings to choose. I honestly think Zarco is one of the best riders on the grid, talent wise at least, but 2019 was a horrible year for him, and I can’t imagine the denting it has caused in his mental fortitude. Consider this a clean slate for Zarco, as the GP19 is a hell of a lot more competitive than the KTM, and we may yet see a resurgence of the Zarco of old.
This one, in comparison, was a bit lopsided. I wanted to undershoot Zarco’s score in case his struggles with KTM really did hit him hard, but he bounced back fairly well in 2020. Also, I was totally wrong about the KTM’s odds in 2020 – this will be a recurring theme for the rest of this series.
Tito Rabat – 1.3
Sometimes, people just don’t convert well from Moto2 to MotoGP. Despite his impressive resume in previous classes, we’ve been waiting years now for Rabat to shine in the premier class, and he just hasn’t brought it a single time. The optimist in me wants to believe that he will one day surprise us with a podium, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting on that one.
Ouch. This one was a bit harsh, but Rabat won’t be racing in 2021 thanks to the sub-optimal season he had. Sorry, Tito.
Andrea Dovizioso – 4.3
Dovi needs no introduction, as his numbers speak for themselves. Runner up in 2017, 2018 and 2019, he is easily the second most successful rider of late, and widely considered the main rival of Marc Marquez. While I’m not yet sold on the GP20 being an improvement over last year’s model, if anyone can be relied upon to kick start the season swinging, Dovizioso is your guy, and it would be crazy to expect anything less than a strong season from Ducati’s modern-day form man.
I think Dovi’s history was the prime reason for this high scoring, and I stand by it. Dovi didn’t have the best season in the end, but he took a win in Austria and stayed in the championship fight right up until the end. It will be a sad sight next year to see the paddock devoid of his determined face, but overall I think he earned that 4.3. Also, I totally called Ducati having a tough season.
Danilo Petrucci – 2.7
How the mighty have fallen. This time last year I had Petrucci pinned as the successor to Dovizioso’s title as Ducati frontman, but over the second half of last season he went from podium regular to a regular top 8 finisher to struggling for any good results to speak of. Given that this year is his last on Ducati, there should be some motivation for him to get some good finishes in, but I doubt we’ll be seeing much of the number 9 at the front of this year’s racing.
Well, this was another brutally accurate rating. Petrucci did manage to take an incredible win in the wet at Le Mans – which he fully deserved, outclassing every opponent on the day – but other than that he was mostly absent from the proceedings in 2020. Let’s hope he adapts well to the KTM in 2021.
Jack Miller – 3.6
Miller starts his third season on board a Ducati with the satisfaction of a 2021 factory signing in his pocket, and with no chance of that changing he can focus entirely on his 2020 campaign. We saw brief moments of what his potential on a factory-level machine is last year, when he bagged an astonishing 5 podiums, and one can only assume his results will continue on an upwards trend. Expect big things from Miller this year.
Australian bias aside, Miller had a strong season, and earned his rating with some impressive form in both the Austrian double-header and the final two races in Valencia and Portimao. Some inconsistency stopped him from staying in the title fight, but he should hopefully iron that out on a factory machine in 2021. I think this was a pretty fair rating overall.
Francesco Bagnaia – 2.3
I really expected more out of Bagnaia in 2019. After romping his way to the 2018 Moto2 crown, and putting down some impressive pre-season results, the stage looked set for him to run away with the rookie of the year title, but instead he had a season filled with DNFs and missed opportunities. No longer a rookie, this year needs to be a big one for Bagnaia, because on a factory-spec Ducati and with a year’s experience under his belt, there can be no more excuses for an intermediate champion in the premier class.
Bagnaia made no excuses for himself in 2020, and his time in the limelight was impressive, albeit brief and intermittent. Engine troubles ruled him out of a podium in Andalusia, and his maiden win turned into a crash in Emilia-Romagna, so it’s safe to say he still has a problem with scoring far too many DNFs. Then again, returning to the grid after a nasty crash and taking a podium when he couldn’t walk unassisted was impressive, so hopefully we see more of that gritty determination in 2021.
Takaaki Nakagami – 2.2
Nakagami intrigues me as a rider with a solid amount of potential but no real results to his name. His best result of the year last year was a 5th place in Italy, and it was a hell of a performance, but he just never managed to follow up on that. While injury could be blamed for some of the low points, he is now fully fit, and needs to resume pushing himself for those top finishes if he wants to secure a ride for next year in the choppy waters of the current rider’s market.
I may have undervalued Nakagami with his score, but the words still ring true. Nakagami was the rider who consistently missed out on podiums last year, coming close a number of times but never sealing the deal. That being said, he was the strongest Honda rider by a decent margin, and his new method of riding that he picked up from studying Marc Marquez should help him continue to build and grow. Maybe a score in the low 3’s would have been better suited?
Cal Crutchlow – 3.4
Crutchlow has been a regular up the front of the MotoGP pack over the last few years, and given he’s been riding an increasingly difficult Honda machine, it’s a testament to his skills as a rider that these results have been possible. That being said, he is facing yet another wave of talented riders far younger than he is, and I fear we may be seeing the beginning of the end for Cal’s MotoGP career. Still, it would be unwise to bet against him.
I really wish Cal had gotten some better luck in 2020. Marred by injury, he never really managed to repeat his performances from previous years, and ended up announcing his retirement at the end of it all. I wish I hadn’t predicted his struggles so accurately, as the punishing consistency of the new young guns was a big factor in his poor form, but I wish him all the best in future endeavours.
Alex Marquez – 2.8
I found the rookies to be the most challenging ones to rate for this season, and Alex is no exception. The 2019 Moto2 champion finds himself sharing a pit box in his debut season with his 8-times World Champion brother Marc, and riding a bike that has become so specified to Marc’s needs that even Jorge Lorenzo couldn’t ride it. That being said, I have high hopes for the younger Marquez, and would be very happy to see him demolish the rating that I’ve handed him.
Look – rookies are hard to rate. This rookie was particularly hard to rate. I’m glad I didn’t attach too much reasoning to Alex’s score, because he actually turned out to have a strong second half of the season, and even I couldn’t have predicted double podiums from him. Still, it was a stronger year for many other riders, so perhaps 2.8 is a fair middle ground.
Marc Marquez – 4.8
We all knew this one was coming. Marc has won the last four MotoGP championships, and a whopping 8 titles from the last 10 years, and he’s still young enough that it would be insane to expect anything other than a 9th title this year. Winning races and world titles comes so naturally to him it may as well be in his blood, and even with the young talent rising up to challenge him, he took his most dominant title yet last year. Marc is the man to beat, and so far it doesn’t look like anyone in the field has what it takes to beat him.
I feel like this one needs no real explaining. Marc was/is the best, but even I couldn’t predict something like that happening to the reigning champion. I do hope he makes a strong return this year though, because MotoGP doesn’t quite feel the same without him.
Wow, this post ended up being a lot longer than expected! I’ve decided to chop it up into two parts, so you can expect to see part two in a couple of days. See you then!
Solomon Talks Bikes 