Many MotoGP championships have been closed out before the final race of the season. It’s the one time where math nerds and racing nerds cross over: calculating exactly what results would be required for a rider to be crowned champion at any given time. Since most seasons recently have included between seventeen and nineteen races, it allows for a single rider to amass a large points advantage and wrap things up long before the season’s conclusion.
2020 has been a season unlike any other, and has broken many of the norms of modern-day MotoGP, but in an unexpected twist we find ourselves in familiar territory with two races to go. We have a championship leader with a sizeable lead over his foes, and a very real possibility to be crowned at the conclusion of this weekend’s race. Joan Mir, known recently as Mr Consistent thanks to his seemingly unending presence on the podium, stands 37 points clear of both Quartararo and Rins, and if he can keep that gap above 25 points by the time the chequered flag comes out he will secure his first ever MotoGP world championship.
There are many mathematical scenarios in which Mir could take the title, but the simplest version of events is this: if he finishes the Valencian Grand Prix on the podium, he will be champion. Given his recent form, the strength of the Suzuki he’s on and the fact that at least half of his rivals appear to have given up all hope, this seems like a rather achievable goal, even for the wacky standards of 2020. This season may have been one of the toughest to predict in the history of the sport, but it seems a fair and reasonable bet to assume Mir will be world champion come Monday morning.
This time last week, there were thirteen riders with a mathematical chance of beating him. Today, there are just five: Quartararo, Rins, Vinales, Morbidelli and Dovizioso, in that order. For any of them to remain in contention essentially requires them to win, so even if Mir somehow fails to capitalise on this opportunity, it will lead to a straight shootout in Portimao in a week’s time. They are also between 37 and 45 points down, which is incredible given how closely bunched they were a week ago, and is a testament to how important Mir’s win in the European Grand Prix last weekend was.
You only had to look at the faces of the riders in press conferences and interviews this week to see how things had changed. Quartararo and Dovizioso appear tired and worn, and Vinales even went as far as to claim that the championship battle is “over” for him, despite still being in with a points chance. Mir didn’t just beat his rivals last week, he destroyed them, stretching out his advantage and silencing any remaining critics in the process. Perhaps the only one of his rivals still upbeat is his teammate Rins, but Rins is also on a strong streak of form and is likely looking to lock down second place in the championship, which would be a historic success for Suzuki.
These last few races have truly been a testament to the hard work put in by the Suzuki factory over the last few years. As recently as 2017 they were struggling to get any strong finishes, with their engine setup led astray by the now banned Andrea Iannone. Now they wield what is potentially the strongest bike on the grid, an agile machine that is able to turn on a dime and manage its tires better than any of its foes. It is also a testament to the riders, of course, as Davide Brivio has done a fantastic job of hand-picking two incredibly talented young Spaniards. He must be incredibly relieved to have resigned both of them for the next two years, as their time in the limelight is only just getting started.
If Mir’s rivals were to have one point in their favour, it would be that the weather appears finally ready to play along. Forecasts indicate a stark lack of rain compared to last week, and with a full weekend of practice in dry conditions, the paddock should be able to refine their bikes and put their riders back in contention for the win. Last week’s rain meant that riders only got one dry practice session to figure out their bike setups, and this can only have favoured the jack-of-all-trades Suzuki riders. This time out, anyone could take the win.
There will be a number of side plots to follow this weekend, too. Iker Lecuona has returned from quarantine and will be itching to regain his strong form of late. Binder and Marquez (the younger) still have to settle their battle for rookie of the year. Pol Espargaro is still hoping to take a race win with KTM before he moves to Honda next year, and his brother Aleix will be continuing his fight to turn the Aprilia into a competitive motorcycle. Rossi hasn’t scored a point in six rounds, and the Yamahas as a whole face their continuing issues with engine management. No matter who you support in MotoGP, this weekend should be an impactful one.
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