Aragon Preview: A Throne Lies Empty

No record lasts forever, least of all in motorsports. The machinery continues to evolve as humans strive to move faster, push harder, break the limits of what they believed to be achievable. In the same way, no streak can last forever; riders get older, bikes lose their edge, people make mistakes. We saw this in 2019 at the American Grand Prix, where Marc Marquez’s 6-year winning streak at the infamous Texan circuit came to a sudden and rather unexpected end, crashing out midway through the race from first position and with a sizeable lead. The win was gifted to Alex Rins, and the streak was broken, and while it seemed incredible at the time, it was inevitable that it would happen someday.

A streak will be broken this weekend, too. The Aragon circuit has played host to the MotoGP field since 2010, and for the last four years has been won by reigning champion Marc Marquez, but in the earliest of the many curve-balls thrown by the 2020 season, Marc was ruled out of the majority of the season due to injury. He will return before the end of the year, but this Sunday has been struck from the potential dates, and so we face another record waiting to be broken, another streak meeting it’s inevitable end. With no way for Marquez to defend his 4-year winning run, and given the fact that every other rider to have won at this circuit has since retired, we can say with certainty that a new winner will be crowned this Sunday, someone who has never stood on the top step in Aragon.

Marc is not the only champion who will be absent this weekend. The sporting world woke this morning to the shock news that Valentino Rossi had tested positive to COVID-19, and will not be participating in this weekend’s race, and will likely miss the follow up in a week’s time. The nine-time world champion continues his recent string of bad luck, with three DNFs in a row from his last three outings, and also marks the second rider in the paddock to test positive to the virus. Jorge Martin, current Moto2 rider and confirmed 2021 Pramac graduate, missed both Misano races after his positive test, putting an end to his intermediate class championship challenge, and it would appear that with this news Rossi can similarly be ruled out of any further challenge for the title.

A tragic moment, and a stark reminder of the reality we live in. The 2020 season has never been and will never be a sure-fire thing: at any point, if the second wave of the virus in Europe gets to be too damaging, or if more cases hit the paddock, racing could be called off or cut short, the championship ending as abruptly as it restarted in July. This was always going to be a year of stamina, with so many races being held in such a short space of time, but it is also one of uncertainty. Mathematically, many riders are still very much in contention for the championship, but that counts on the fact that we get all five of the remaining races scheduled.

So for any rider in MotoGP, the goal for this weekend, and for every weekend remaining in this season, should be to leave on Monday with the championship lead. Currently, despite a rather dismal showing in the last race in Le Mans, that lead belongs to Frenchman Fabio Quartararo, who has led the championship for the majority of 2020. His pursuers are more stretched out than they have been at most previous points this year, and we can fairly safely say who the real title contenders are: Ducati’s Andrea Dovizioso, Suzuki’s Joan Mir, and Yamaha’s Maverick Vinales. Other riders could throw themselves into title pursuit with a string of good results, but this is 2020 we’re talking about. Even the form man Mir has been unable to continue his podium streak of late, finishing a disheartening eleventh in France last week.

Who is going to break Marquez’s streak at Aragon? Most likely, a Ducati or a Suzuki, though as with most things this season it cannot be said with much certainty. The Ducatis have shone in recent years here, Dovi in particular racking up a number of podiums, while the Suzuki team find themselves at yet another circuit that should benefit their Jack-of-all-trades model. While the Suzuki should find strength in the open and flowing nature of the circuit, the Ducati’s strengths will come from the long back straight, which they have used time and time again in previous years to obliterate other machines with their massive top speed advantage. Regardless, both bikes should be feared by the rest of the grid.

While the Honda should also find strength in the easy cornering and long straights of this Spanish circuit, it seems unlikely that they will impact Sunday’s race. Despite an incredible first podium in Le Mans last time out, Repsol rider Alex Marquez is still a rookie, and has yet to prove himself properly in dry conditions. Bradl remains a test rider, struggling to keep up with the young men around him; Crutchlow remains hobbled by injury and struggling with the 2020 bike. Nakagami seems like their only real chance, as he is riding the exact model of bike that the elder Marquez brother won with in last year’s race, but he will face the pressure of never having won in a MotoGP race before. If his time does come, he will have to fight hard to prove it.

2020 has been a difficult year to predict in basically every regard, but coming to a circuit dominated in recent history by a man who will not be competing come Sunday, with a championship that could end at any moment, coming off the back of a wet race that mixed up the title race, the idea of predicting a winner for this weekend’s race is almost preposterous. My recommendation? Sit back, relax, and enjoy what will no doubt be yet another spectacle of a race.