Two weeks between races has never felt like an eternity before, and yet after the triple header at Misano and Catalunya, a weekend with no racing to provide entertainment was truly a troublesome experience. Regardless, MotoGP is back, this time at the Le Mans circuit in France, and there is much to talk about leading into the back half of this unpredictable 2020 season.
For starters, the rider market for 2021 has taken yet another shakeup, with Ducati announcing much of their lineup for next year during the break. The assumptions of the paddock have turned out to be true: Francesco Bagnaia will be moving up to the factory squad for 2021, joining his current Pramac teammate Jack Miller as the new boys in red. Bagnaia’s form has seen a sharp uptick this year, with his first ever podium in Misano and two races that looked set to be visits to parc ferme before untimely exits, and he will look to continue that form in his final races with Pramac. Meanwhile, the other contender for that factory ride has also had his future locked in, as Zarco has been confirmed to ride with Pramac in 2021 alongside current Moto2 rider and former Moto3 champion Jorge Martin. This announcement also came with little surprise, as Zarco has been put in a number of solid results in his first season onboard a Ducati, and Martin is a fiercely talented youngster who has shown more than enough promise in both the junior and intermediate classes.
So where does that leave us for the 2021 roster? Currently there are 3 available seats, with a fourth looking increasingly possible, but a few assumptions can be made about the contents of those seats. Nakagami will almost certainly stay with LCR, as he has been the best performing Honda rider all year, and the Idemitsu-backed seat tends to prefer a Japanese rider flying it’s flag. We also know that Enea Bastianini has been signed on with Ducati for next year, so he can only really be headed for a seat at the Esponsorama/Avintia ride alongside Tito Rabat. That leaves just one seat remaining, that of the absent Andrea Iannone at Aprilia, although there are rumours of a fourth vacancy opening up as Ducati attempts to show Rabat the door and replace him with Luca Marini, the current Moto2 leader. Despite Rabat having a contract that extends through to 2021, he has deeply underperformed lately, and Ducati may try to cut a deal with him to open that spot up to a younger talent such as Marini.
And what of that Aprilia ride? Technically, we won’t really know anything about it until a verdict is delivered on Iannone’s doping ban; Aprilia have consistently backed their man up in interviews and on social media over the course of this year, so it’s safe to say if he can get his ban overturned then the seat should be his. And if he doesn’t? Then we start looking at the current outgoing riders, such as Cal Crutchlow, ousted from Honda, or the unemployed Andrea Dovizioso. Both of these riders have pros and cons attached to them – Crutchlow has suffered a miserable string of injuries of late, and Dovi will refuse to settle for anything less than a competitive bike, just for starters – but given we won’t know the result of Iannone’s case until October 15th, for now we can only speculate.
Anyway, onto the race this weekend.
Le Mans is a fascinating track, and a favourite among many of the riders. It has set the stage for a number of frantic showdowns (most recently, in 2017 between Vinales and Rossi), and given how tight the field is this year, one can only assume we are in for another searing viewing experience. In recent history the track has been dominated with Hondas and Yamahas – the last rider to win on any other machinery was Chris Vermeulen in 2007 – but with Ducati taking second, third and fourth last year, this trend appears to be on the verge of being broken. Indeed, many of the circuits known for being dominated by one manufacturer or another have had those records overturned of late, but that is a topic for another day.
Of note, this is a Le Mans race unlike any other, in that it is being run in October. The track temperature is expected to be excruciatingly low, and there is a possibility of rain on both Friday and Sunday, so we head into the weekend with a lot of unknowns. Still, the track itself remains unchanged from recent years, so we can still make a few assumptions.
If there were a best bike for this round, it would be the Yamaha. The open and flowing nature of the circuit should theoretically benefit the boys in blue, and they have a history of success here in France. Quartararo will be looking to bag his fourth win of the year in front of his home crowd, and finally regain some measure of control over the championship, but the other Yamaha riders all have a degree of promise behind them. Rossi is still chasing that elusive 200th podium after his crash last time out; Morbidelli will be hoping to continue his strong form and potentially show up his teammate; and Vinales, ever the enigma, will want to bounce back to the form he showed in Misano 2. Vinales in particular will be one to watch come race day, as the schedule has been shifted to have the premier class race before the intermediates, which should hopefully solve some of Vinales’ continued tire woes.
The nature of the circuit should also be of benefit to the Suzuki men, who come off a strong double podium last time out, but only if they can finally get their heads around qualifying. Mir is the current form man of MotoGP, with three consecutive podiums and four in total for this year, and though he is still missing that first win, it can only be assumed that it is rapidly approaching given his continued strength. Rins is starting to find his feet again after his injury early on in the season, and will be looking to cement another strong result to potentially leapfrog himself back into the championship challenge. None of these goals will matter, however, if they can’t get a good starting position on the grid; but with any luck, they should both be in fine form for race day.
As for the Hondas, their lack of a certain Marc Marquez continues to show. Nakagami appears to be their only hope of repeating last year’s success, and he’s not even on a 2020-spec bike. It has been a truly embarrassing season for the reigning constructors champions, and it just seems impossible to imagine one of their riders taking the top step of the podium come Sunday. While the younger Marquez brother is continuing to show promise, working his way forward step-by-step, it is clear they are in desperate need of some direction from their key rider and reigning champion Marc.
Could anyone else challenge? Well, this is 2020, so naturally the list of names on the table is enormous. Dovi and Miller have both seen decent success here in the past for Ducati, and the KTM riders have been consistently surprising this year, so we will only truly know come Sunday. If the weather pulls through, it could be a very entertaining race – and if it doesn’t, then we may be in for a different kind of race entirely.
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