When the pace heats up and the weather doesn’t play along, you occasionally get something colloquially referred to as a ‘crash-fest’ in racing. The Grand Prix of Emilia-Romagna had all of the requisite boxes checked: the MotoGP riders had already raced at the same circuit just one week prior, not to mention the mid-week test, and just an hour and a half before the race start the heavens opened up on the unsuspecting Moto2 riders. And so it was not a huge surprise that the MotoGP race last weekend was something of a bloodbath. Only 13 riders saw the chequered flag, one of whom had a fall on the first lap but remounted, and in keeping with the tradition of 2020 being a wild and unpredictable beast, the bookie’s favourite crashed out, the winner was someone we haven’t seen on the top step all year, and the championship leader finished in 8th. So, let’s break it down.
First of all, Maverick Vinales took his first win since Malaysia 2019, storming to an almost 4 second victory over Mir, Quartararo and Pol Espargaro, though the Frenchman later received a penalty for track infringements that gifted his podium slot to the younger Espargaro. This was a deeply important result for Vinales, as he is a man who builds success off of confidence, and confidence has been his main weakness this season. We have seen time and time again what Vinales can accomplish when he is focused and mentally prepared; conversely, we have seen far too many examples of what happens when there is a chink in his armour. Hopefully, a win of this size will bolster both his championship aspirations.
But it wasn’t really as simple a win as it may immediately appear on paper. In fact, Vinales spent the vast majority of the race in second, trailing the Pramac Ducati of Pecco Bagnaia by around 1.4 seconds for what seemed like an eternity. Bagnaia was the pre-race favourite, and to be honest, it seemed like a shoe-in – his pace in FP4 was nothing short of astonishing, he would have taken pole if not for a late run through the green, and he had shown his capacity to finish on the podium just one week before. Unfortunately for the VR46 Academy graduate, he took an untimely tumble with only 7 laps left in the race, gifting the win to the patient Vinales, and robbing him of the opportunity for a home win.
How could a rider with such a commanding lead crash out? Well, there are likely several factors at play. Bagnaia has yet to clinch a MotoGP victory, so nerves may have been part of it, and the relentless pressure from Vinales wouldn’t have helped either. From Bagnaia’s perspective, however, it was a much smaller issue: a tear away from another rider’s visor, causing him to lose the front and slip off into the gravel. There is of course no evidence of this claim, but it would be a rather ironic fate, as a tear away was similarly responsible for his teammate’s race woes. Miller, the second Pramac rider, had a tear away get snagged within his bike in the early stages of the race, cutting his power and forcing him to retire.
The battle for the remaining podium positions ended up being won by a rather heroic Joan Mir, who came all the way from 11th on the grid to seal his fourth consecutive top 4 finish. The young Suzuki rider, only in his second season of MotoGP, is now a firm title contender, and his first race victory looks almost assuredly to be on it’s way, though it arguably should have occured a few weeks ago in Austria 2. After scything his way through the pack in the early stages, Mir steadily hunted down Espargaro and Quartararo ahead of him until he was able to pounce in the final two laps and outmuscle the pair of them. It was an impressive result, putting him on the podium for the third time in his career, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he continued this strong form in the next few races.
Quartararo crossed the line third, but was penalised three seconds post-race, knocking him back to fourth. The reason? He had exceeded track limits too many times, and was handed a long lap penalty which he did not take. Quartararo insists that he never received the warning, and that he would have been more reserved in his technique if he had known a penalty was on the line, but the strength of these allegations are relatively unknown, as the commentators and TV audience were all informed he had received the notification on his dashboard. Still, 13 points is 13 more than he managed in the previous race, and keeps him firmly within the championship fight, so things didn’t go as poorly as they potentially could have.
Dovizioso went into this race as the championship leader, and he leaves it still holding that advantage, but it has shrunk to just one point, and four points now split the top 4. Dovi was nowhere near the pace this weekend, and it showed, as even the struggling Hondas of Nakagami and Alex Marquez were able to finish ahead of him. Consistency has been Dovi’s strong suit in previous years, but he just cannot seem to wrestle this year’s Ducati into submission on a regular basis. If he wants a legitimate shot at finally taking that champion’s crown, he is going to have to put in a lot of work in the next 9 weeks.
Which brings us to the crux of this weekend: the championship. At the halfway point of this shortened season, the top 10 riders are split by 27 points, and not a single rider has breached the 100 point mark. We were told over and over that this season would be a war of attrition, that consistency would prevail come November, but so far no single rider has been able to show real consistency over the first seven races. Mir has finished in the top 5 on five different occasions, but he has also crashed twice. Dovi has made the podium twice, but took just 5 points from the Czech race. Vinales has a win and two second places, but had a disastrous double header in Austria that cost him a lot of ground. There is no clear indicator of who is strong and who is not, and the different manufacturers can appear strong one week but fade the next.
Anyone who says they have an idea of who will win this year’s championship is kidding themselves. Really, no-one can even predict who will win a single race of 2020 with real accuracy. But there are only 7 races remaining, so if anyone wants to lay claim to the empty throne, the time is now.
Solomon Talks Bikes 